986
FXUS63 KFGF 172014
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
314 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will continue to impact air quality over parts
  of  the region through early evening.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms Sunday
  evening into Sunday night. Hail to the size of golf balls and
  wind gusts to 60 mph would be the primary threats.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday
  and Sunday over Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard
  Counties during the afternoon and early evening periods. Near
  critical to critical fire weather conditions may develop in
  those same areas Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper level ridging that has been in place across the CONUS will
continue to be a primary focus for the evolution of the pattern in
our CWA and sensible weather impacts. The ridge has weekend compared
to previous days, with the main axis is currently to the west over
the Rockies. Northwest flow is currently in place, with a cold front
actively passing through the region this afternoon (currently
southeast of Fargo). This wash out/stall and eventually a warm
front/baroclinic zone lifts back into tour CWA Saturday into Sunday. A
stronger trough passage in Canada Monday night into Tuesday
eventually result in much deeper northerly flow developing and
seasonably mild temperatures returning. A strong cold front passes
through the region Monday and Tuesday bringing periods of windy
conditions, with near advisory wind gusts as the front passes. The
ridge does eventually rebound late next week, though the eights will
tend to be lower than the previous rendition of the ridge. The storm
track does not currently favor organized/widespread precipitation
events, though weaker synoptic forcing combined with mesoscale
effects could still result in periodic shower/thunderstorm chances
during the 7 day period.

...Air Quality Impacts Today...

The main area of wildfire smoke causing unhealthy air quality is
immediately behind the passing cold front with smoke concentrations
decreasing northwest to southeast with mixing/clearing. The shift in
flow should generally keep additional surface level smoke from
moving back into the region after this area of smoke clears this
evening. Additional smoke may still circulate back into the region
from the north-northeast mainly aloft, with little indication in
smoke models or upstream obs of additional surface level smoke
impacts tonight/Saturday.

...Severe Thunderstorm Risk Late Sunday...

Initially the main frontal zone and any synoptic forcing appears to
be in Canada Sunday with either strong capping for limited local
instability due to deeper mixing/drier air ahead of the main wave.
However, deeper moisture return in southerly flow along with steep
mid level lapse rates results in increasing instability Sunday
evening and Sunday night ahead of the approaching cold front and
strong effective shear and turning hodographs could support elevated
supercell or even smaller MCS/clusters with wind threat related to
upscale development. As forcing and general coverage will be
uncertain until much later, and potentially dependent on upstream
initiation the severe risk remains conditional. Still, this will be a
period to monitor (Sunday evening-early Monday morning).

...Fire Weather Saturday through Tuesday...

There continues to be concerns regarding very dry fuels in forested
areas by fire weather partners/fuels experts in MN specifically
regarding Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, and Hubbard counties in our
CWA. Warmer temperatures and RH around 40% may be enough for any fire
starts to spread rapidly in forested areas across those counties
even with less winds as forecast, and near critical fire weather
conditions are expected there both Saturday and Sunday afternoons and
early evenings (SPS currently out for Saturday periods). As the cold
stronger trough in Canada approaches early in the week, along with
the strong cold front, surface gradient increases along with
stronger mixed layer winds during periods of lowest RH values (30-
45%) Monday and Tuesday. This raises the potential for Critical Fire
Weather conditions/RFW conditions to develop and those periods are
being closely monitored.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Flight conditions remain variable across eastern ND and
northwest MN due to a lingering layer of stratus (generally
MVFR) and surface smoke from wildfires that mixed to the surface
behind a passing cold front (vis generally 2-6 sm). The stratus
is starting to lift and break up from the west to the east, and
all guidance has VFR ceilings returning during the afternoon
hours, though satellite trends support the potential for MVFR
ceilings to linger longer in MN than guidance indicates.
Visibility is much harder to anticipate as smoke concentrations
will be highly variable. The thickest smoke is immediately
behind the front and this is where IFR visibilities have been
reported, however as the front moves southeast smoke is thinning
and visibilities are improving and based on that trend VFR
should improve through the afternoon/evening. However,
additional areas of smoke make continue to rotate through the
region aloft and occasionally at the surface tonight into
Saturday.

Northerly winds occasionally gusting around 20kt are expected
through the afternoon behind the front, decreasing early evening
with loss of daytime heating.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR