085
FXUS63 KFGF 241943
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
243 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather this
  afternoon and evening, with golf ball sized hail and 70 mph
  wind gusts the primary threats. Isolated tornadoes are
  possible.

- Heat advisory for parts of eastern North Dakota and west
  central Minnesota Saturday, and even more widespread on
  Sunday. There is a 40 percent chance for heat index values
  over 105 in the southern Red River Valley on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...Synopsis...

Water vapor loop shows a fairly nice shortwave moving through
southern Saskatchewan currently, and that will skirt along the
international border and down into northern MN tonight. Surface
trough extends from southern Manitoba into western ND, with some
showers and thunderstorms trying to develop along it.
Discussion about these storms in the section below. Upper
ridging builds into the Rockies and western Plains over the
weekend, and many of the model solutions have a ridge riding
shortwave coming over the area Saturday night and Sunday.
Northwesterly flow aloft to ridging continues into the upcoming
work week, with several weak shortwaves moving through.
Temperatures continue to look very warm through the upcoming
week, with some signs of heights starting to drop on Friday.

...Severe chances this afternoon and evening...

Out ahead of the surface trough/frontal boundary and across most
of our forecast area, temperatures have rising into the 80s with
dew points in the low 70s. Readings a little lower in our far
east where stratus has taken its time scattering out. Sounding
at BIS at 18Z has plenty of warm air at 850mb and still plenty
of CIN. There is also some dry air aloft that could get
entrained into the developing storms. All this to say,
convection from near the international border down into central
ND has struggled a bit to get going. We will continue to see
destabilization for the next few hours, and the shortwave over
southern Saskatchewan will only get closer and provide upper
support for convective initiation. HRRR starts developing some
fairly intense convection around 23Z, and other CAMs are a bit
slower or faster, but fairly similar. HREF updraft helicity
tracks show plenty of stronger storms developing, and
probabilities of wind and hail from the SSCRAM are over 25
percent in parts of northwestern MN. If anything becomes surface
base instead of elevated, can`t rule out some tornadoes with
the Nadocast and SSCRAM both showing some 10 percent chances
along the boundary. Most of the activity should shift eastward
and out of the forecast area shortly after midnight as the
shortwave moves through and we lose daytime heating.

...Heat impacts this weekend...

Ridging continues to build over the next few days, with 850mb
temps near 30 C nudging into southern ND. Some high level smoke
might keep temps down a few degrees, and with a shortwave coming
over the top of the ridge Saturday night into Sunday, can`t rule
out some clouds that could also keep temperatures down in a bit.
However, the probability of maximum temperatures over 90 is 90
percent or greater for all but our far northern and eastern tier
both Saturday and Sunday. Apparent temperatures get to 100
degrees in portions of east central and southeastern ND and west
central MN tomorrow, with even more widespread heat index values
above criteria on Sunday. There is about a 40 percent chance for
heat index values over 105 Sunday, and wet bulb globe
temperatures get above 80 in many areas. Not confident enough
for a warning at this point but could see some areas approaching
it on Sunday. Have a heat advisory for a limited area tomorrow
and across all but the Devils Lake Basin and Lake of the Woods
area on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

MVFR stratus continues to hang on at KGFK and the MN airports,
but should scatter out in the next hour or so and become VFR.
Winds will continue to gust out of the southwest at 25 kts
through this afternoon. Convection is possible late this
afternoon and evening, although still uncertainties as to
exactly where storms will develop. Have some prob30 groups at
all of the TAF sites, and while there could be some brief drops
to MVFR think most of the ceilings and vis will stay VFR unless
a stronger cell goes right over the airport. Behind the
convection, should be a return to some scattered high clouds and
winds becoming light and variable, with some turn to the
northwest at KDVL. High smoke should not impact the TAF sites
and at this point it seems the worst of the surface smoke will
stay west of our airports, so will keep mention out for now.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for NDZ008-016.
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 9 PM CDT Sunday for
     MNZ001>003-029-030-040.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ004-007>009-
     013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR