842
FXUS63 KFGF 060816
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
316 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze conditions anticipated early Monday, early
  Tuesday and early Wednesday over portions of eastern ND and
  northwest MN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...Synopsis...

500 mb low is north of Churchill with trough into north central
US. This will maintain itself thru Tuesday night before it
shifts east and a short wave ridge builds north into central
Canada and north central US. We have one weak surface trough
noted moving into the RRV at 07z. Bands of mid clouds are with
this as well, with a southwest wind turning northwest. Surface
high is located near the Saskatchewan, Montana and North Dakota
border where temps are in the low-mid 20s. This high drifts
southeast today quickly. Briefly colder air moves into DVL basin
with drier airmass and clearer sky moving in. Thus temps
dropping to 32 and colder still possible in this area. Getting
temps dropping to widespread 36 or colder farther east may be
difficult. Not changing the warning/advisory as got several more
hours.

Upstream short wave moving quickly southeast into east central
Saskatchewan and west central Manitoba with clouds and light
rain. This system moves well north of the area, but another
surface trough passes thru overnight with a band of clouds. DLH
wanted to add a low pop for a shower Lake of the Woods around
06z and did include as well. After this trough, colder air moves
in with high pressure behind this trough a bit farther east than
the current one, and is forecast to be in southwest Manitoba
near 12z Tues. Thus anticipate a quick cool down with another
potential/likely freeze for DVL region and frost temps farther
east thru the mid and north RRV and NW MN. Overall temps likely
to be colder Mon late night/Tues early than this morning.

High pressure over the area Tuesday and then slips southeast
Tuesday night. Lightest winds Tues night over northern MN and
would anticipate freeze Tues night in most of NW MN.

Handling these frost/freeze events individually at the present
time, meaning nothing issued for this upcoming night/Tues early
until the current headlines expire. Kept mentioning the frost in
the grids thru the overnight/early AM thru early Wednesday based
on forecast temps.

Milder air moves in mid to late week as upper ridge builds in
Wed-Thu and trough moves into western Canada and the west coast,
Global models drop upper low south along the west coast to off
northern California Friday. Dry thru Friday. Then shower
chances over the weekend will be determined on what happens to
the western trough. Overall though models differ, they do show
some sfc and upper system and front moving into the northern
Plains later Saturday and Sunday with chance of showers
increasing.




&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Winds will continue to diminish and skies will clear from west
to east, allowing conditions to prevail VFR for the remainder of
the TAF period once MVFR ceilings exit. Winds will remain
primarily northwesterly to westerly through the entire TAF
period with very limited aviation impacts after 12z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ008-016-
     026>030-038-039-049-052-054.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024.
MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Perroux