637
FXUS63 KFGF 050442
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts up to 50 to 60 MPH possible Saturday in the Devils
  Lake Basin east to the Minnesota Red River Valley, with areas
  east of that up to 45 MPH.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions will be present Saturday in southeastern
  North Dakota, with near-critical fire weather conditions
  present as far east as the Minnesota Red River Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Continued breezy with cirrus clouds moving across the area. No
significant changes to what we had going.

UPDATE
Issued at 933 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Getting some decent cirrus moving across the northern counties,
and breezy southerly winds continue. Otherwise fairly quiet this
evening. Will continue to see how fast wind start to ramp up
overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Not much to change so far with only a few high clouds across our
northern counties and the pressure gradient continuing to
tighten across the CWA, bringing breezy southerly winds but
nothing headline worthy yet. Will continue to monitor as the low
level jet kicks it tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...Synopsis...

Satellite across the area shows clear skies with pockets of cirrus
moving across Northwestern Minnesota. The air is very dry out there
right now, and will continue to be into the weekend. A pronounced
low pressure system and surface lee trough will progress through the
area over the weekend. After this, another ridge sets up over the
central US, leading to a dry forecast period.

The low pressure system moving just north of our area in Manitoba
will be unable to pull in the moisture necessary for appreciable
rainfall amounts Saturday into Sunday. Isolated showers will be
possible along the international border and into NW MN, but
probabilities of receiving more than a quarter of an inch with these
showers is less than 20%.

...High Winds Saturday...

What this low pressure system will provide us is additional
fuel for the high wind situation unfolding in the guidance. A
low level jet with speeds around 65 to 70 knots will set in
overnight tonight into tomorrow, and the pressure gradient from
this low pressure system across our area will work with that to
enhance mixing and increase wind speeds. The Devils Lake Basin
looks to have the highest winds, up to 60 MPH gusts and other
areas in Eastern ND and the MN Red River Valley could see gusts
up to 50 - 55 MPH. If the jet or the PGF is stronger than
forecasted, we could see higher wind gusts into Saturday. A High
Wind Watch is in effect for the area that looks to be most
affected by at least advisory level winds.

...Fire Weather Concerns...

Another issue with the winds is our relatively dry fuels in the
area. Relative Humidity values are forecasted to be as low as 25% in
southeastern North Dakota, which is where a Red Flag Warning has
been issued for the combination of dry fuels, high winds, and low
RHs. With the winds and lapse rates as high as they are forecasted
to be tomorrow, concern remains for near-critical fire weather
conditions in the Devils Lake Basin and Red River Valley to degrade
further if RH is dropped by the advection of dry air in by the
winds. Regardless, Saturday is not a good day anywhere in the FA for
a fire, as high winds and lower RHs would contribute to favorable
conditions for fire spread. This situation will have to be monitored
in the next few hours to determine confidence in these conditions
occurring.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

VFR conditions, although some models are showing some MVFR
stratus coming down into some of our northern airports by the
end of the period. Winds will continue to be fairly strong
overnight, with gusts from the south at 25 to even 30 kts even
in the early morning hours. There will also be some LLWS with a
strong low level jet at 45 to 60 kts picking up from the south.
Winds will shift to the southwest and then west, finally
northwest as a cold front approaches. Speeds will continue to
ramp up during the day particularly at our western TAF sites
where gusts to 40 or even above 45 kts will be possible Saturday
afternoon. Some shift and low level wind shear from the
northwest by the end of the period, but gusts will remain above
30 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.
     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ038-
     039-049-052-053.
MN...High Wind Watch from 10 AM CDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...JR