587
FXUS63 KFGF 062356
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for heat-related impacts Sunday, with additional
  heat impacts Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Sunday evening and overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the
  primary hazard, with lesser chances for hail and tornadoes.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  along and south of the International Border Monday evening
  through early Tuesday morning.

- Additional thunderstorm chances next week, with the potential
  for severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...Synopsis...

A warm and active pattern prevails through the next week, with high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s today and Sunday. Thunderstorm
chances are in the forecast Sunday evening and overnight, with strong
to severe storms possible across the Devils Lake Basin extending
back to the south and west. Unsettled weather continues into
Monday with a chance for isolated severe storms along and just
south of the International Border. Further strong to severe
storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front
pushes through the area for Thursday. Cooler temperatures return
late next week.

...Potential Heat-Related Impacts Sunday...

Temperatures climb into the 90s across much of the area Sunday
afternoon, with heat index values in the mid 90s. Looking at dew
points, low to mid 60s are expected outside of the Red River Valley;
however, mid to upper 60 degree dew points prevail within the
Valley. At this time, the main uncertainty resides in how much cloud
cover impacts temperatures, especially in the southern Red River
Valley. Wet bulb globe values will widely climb into the upper
70s and low 80s. This would signify that individuals should
use discretion if doing strenuous outdoor activities tomorrow, take
frequent breaks, and drink plenty of water.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Sunday through Tuesday...

Sunday Evening: Thunderstorms are expected to form in western and
central North Dakota Sunday afternoon and early evening. These
storms will travel east as the evening progresses, approaching
eastern North Dakota during the mid to late evening. At this time,
the most likely mode will favor linear and/or line segments in
eastern North Dakota, but will be downstream of antecedent
supercells that undergo upscale development. Very strong low and mid
level lapse rates will drive initiation ahead of a cold front, with
CAPE values ranging anywhere from 2000 J/Kg to 3000 J/Kg.
Environmental support runs out rather quickly as storms approach the
Red River Valley, thus confidence in the eastern extent of strong
storms looks minimal at this time.

Monday Night: Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening
and persist into the overnight hours. The primary hazard will be
large hail and a lower risk for damaging wind gusts. These storms
will be driven by strong mid level lapse rates as well as 0-6 km
shear upwards of 45-50 knots.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture advection remains strong heading
into Tuesday as low level flow increases out of the south. SBCAPE in
model soundings ranges from 3000 J/Kg to 4000 J/Kg, with low to mid
level shear ranging from 20 to 30 knots. Will need to watch this
very closely in the coming days as the pattern continues to support
additional severe thunderstorm potential on Wednesday. At this
time, model soundings support supercell storm mode both days,
with all hazards possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

While skies remain VFR through the period winds and namely the
gusts will be problematic at times. Winds mainly SE through the
period at all sites with gusts topping 30kts this evening for
DVL from 03z to 06z and again from near 11z/12z through the end
of the period. For GFK and FAR gusts are likely to top 30kts
from 15z and there is a chance for TVF as well but confidence is
lower up there with gusts currently forecast to top out in the
25-30kts range tomorrow. Should be a period of LLWS as well
across DVL and GFK tonight while gusts temporarily drop off.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT