995
FXUS63 KFGF 080415
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1115 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freeze warning impacts late tonight into early Wednesday
  morning over portions of the Red River Valley into northwest
  Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Mostly clear skies continue this evening. Temperatures are
already falling close to freezing in portions of Minnesota.
Skies remain clear this evening and temperatures will continue
to fall efficiently. Therefore, there are no major changes to
the forecast for this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Clear skies continue this evening as the sun begins to set.
Freeze conditions are still expected to develop, with the
greatest chances in northwest Minnesota where winds will be
weakest. No other weather impacts will develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...Synopsis...

Strong subsidence and surface high pressure will maintain dry
conditions through late week. This will promote efficient
radiational cooling in a cool air mass in the heart of the
surface high that will migrate into central Minnesota by
Wednesday morning. This will drive freezing temperatures into
the upper 20s for locations mainly east of the Red River Valley.

Very dry air and increasing southerly winds will bring
potential for near critical fire weather conditions for
Minnesota locations east of Highway 59 corridor Wednesday
afternoon. Should winds look to exceed 15 mph, near critical
fire weather conditions will ensue.

Into late this week, warming trend is still on track as upper
ridging builds into the central CONUS into south-central CAN,
with a brief halt in warming around Friday as a weak cold front
moves through. With upper ridging building this weekend,
southwest flow aloft is progged by late weekend. This will
promote increased moisture into the Northern Plains, and bring
our next chance for precipitation. At this time, there are no
signals for impactful weather from this chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR conditions will persist with increasing southerly winds
through the TAF period. Gusts by mid to late afternoon should be
in the range of 20 to 25 knots, 30 knots as the reasonable worst
case scenario. After sunset, low level wind shear should develop
although confidence in height and intensity is low.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ008-016-027-029-
     030.
MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ001-002-004>009-
     013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux