472
FXUS63 KFGF 020449
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air quality and visibility impacts will continue tonight
  through the weekend due to wildfire smoke.

- An active weather pattern is possible next week, with showers
  and thunderstorms returning to the forecast. Strong storms
  could bring impacts, especially from Tuesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure remains in place today, slowly moving
southeastward into the Great Lakes Region by tonight. An area of low
pressure in northwest North Dakota continues to slowly work
eastward, with scattered shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of
it. This feature will move to the east tonight into Saturday,
bringing precipitation chances into southeastern North Dakota
Saturday afternoon and evening. These chances are expected to linger
into Sunday before the flow pattern starts to become more
southwesterly. Weak H5 flow this weekend will strengthen as the
pressure gradient tightens across the Intermountain West, allowing a
more southwesterly flow pattern to emerge. Shortwaves are expected
to traverse the pattern starting early next week, with several
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
area. With increasing instability and shear, the concern for strong
thunderstorms reenters the forecast by Tuesday.

...Smoke Continues to Impact Air Quality...

High pressure continues to keep wildfire smoke in place across much
of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Winds have increased
slightly today, thus allowing minimal improvement in some areas.
This trend will continue, albeit very slowly over the next several
days. Visibility reductions down to 3 miles are possible, as well as
air quality impacts.

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Next Week...

Zonal progressive H5 flow will give way to weak southwest H5 flow as
we head into Monday and Tuesday. At the 700mb level, shortwave
activity will traverse the flow pattern, bringing periods of forcing
through an increasingly unstable environment. SBCAPE values on
Monday show less than a 10 percent chance of reaching 2000 J/Kg,
with chances increasing to near 50 percent by Tuesday afternoon. By
Wednesday, this increases further to near 80 percent for portions of
west central Minnesota. Shear (Mid to Deep Layer) will be rather
weak Monday and early Tuesday, but is expected to increase late
Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a shortwave. Overall, confidence is
increasing regarding instability, shear, and moisture; however,
uncertainty still remains with regards to the timing of individual
H7 shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Smoke still lingers across the region, with visibilities
reduced as low as 4SM, although predominantly around 6SM. Latest
smoke guidance suggests potential for clearing of smoke within
ND starting around Saturday afternoon. Minnesota locations will
be slower to lose smoke and associated minor impacts to
aviation.

Otherwise, light winds under 10kt are forecast tonight,
increasing between 10-15kt out of the south, Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...CJ