001
FXUS63 KFGF 072329
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
629 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening, with lightning and wind gusts up to 60
  mph the main threat.

- Winds behind a cold front on Sunday could bring some minor
  impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A line of thunderstorms along a pre-frontal trough continues to
propagate eastward this evening. Limited DCAPE and marginal
0-3km shear has facilitated occasional severe wind gusts within
the line. This should continue over the next 1-2 hours, however
with near surface stabilization starting to arise, the gusts
should start to become more and more isolated.

Behind the front, gusty winds continue to be observed, generally
within the 30-40 mph range. Smoke will also begin to push into
the region behind the cold front, lowering air quality and
visibility.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper low moving through southern Canada will dig down into the
Dakotas and then MN this afternoon and tonight. This will help
push a cold front through the forecast area tonight. Another
reinforcing surge of cooler air will come down tomorrow as the
upper low center moves into the midwest, with showers lingering
through tomorrow and into Monday as the system pulls slowly into
the Great Lakes. After some brief northwesterly flow aloft, flow
starts to become more zonal with a few weak shortwaves moving
through mid-week. Another shortwave comes through over the top
of a weak ridge that tries to build in Friday and Saturday, with
periodic precipitation chances and near average temperatures.

...Marginal risk this afternoon and evening...

Cumulus field over west central MN has remained fairly benign
as more higher level clouds have increased and reduced surface
instability. Better convection out near the cold front in south
central ND where CAPE values are still around 1000 J/kg.
However, recent trends are showing the storms struggling to
maintain their updrafts with effective shear around 25 kts.
Should see some slightly better shear develop near the cold
front as it pushes into our western counties later this evening.
While do not expect widespread severe impacts, wind gusts to 60
mph will remain possible as the line of storms pushes into the
CWA this evening. We are even getting some gusts up to 50 mph in
some spots behind the cold front, so winds may continue to be
an issue further into the night. By the time the cold front
reaches our MN counties by late evening, most of the daytime
instability will be weakened and severe threat will be less.
Storms should push out of the forecast area after midnight.

...Minor wind impacts Sunday...

Westerly winds behind the cold front late tonight into tomorrow
morning will be breezy, but not out of the ordinary for the
Plains. By tomorrow, there will be some good momentum transfer
from aloft as the boundary layer mixes out, along with a
secondary push of cold air advection coming down. While the
pressure rises are not as favorable for strong winds, there
is a 70 percent chance for wind gusts over 40 mph along and west
of the Red River Valley. Will likely need a wind advisory for
at least part of our counties, but given the possibility of
thunderstorm winds tonight will hold off on any products for the
moment and let later shifts refine.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A line of storms will continue eastward into northwest Minnesota
this evening. Gusty and erratic winds along the front can be
anticipated, with the potential for the occasional 50 knot gust.
Behind these storms, winds will shift to westerly with gusts
between 30 and 40 knots and lowering ceilings. Even further
upstream, a swath of smoke is expected to swoop down overnight
and lower visibilities, however confidence is low in the degree
of visibility issues that arise.

Additional showers and ceilings falling to MVFR can be expected
through the day tomorrow and towards the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux