578
FXUS63 KFGF 181103
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
603 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for impactful weather over the next 7 days is
  low

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The light showers have spread into the Devils Lake region, where
NDAWN stations report anywhere from a few hundredths up to
around 0.20 inches of rain so far. This area of light rain will
continue to spread eastward this morning. Otherwise, the actual
surface front is somewhere along a Lake of the Woods to
Lidgerwood line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...Synopsis...

As of early this morning, a cold front along the Red River
Valley was tracking to the east. Most of the precipitation
associated with the front was located well behind it, mainly
over the central Dakotas. Over the upcoming weekend, a 500mb
low will cutoff over the desert southwest while the flow over
the Northern Plains turns zonal. The cutoff low will kick out
into the Central Plains early next week, remaining south of this
FA. However, a weak northern stream impulse could bring a few
showers Monday night. This is followed by a deeper 500mb wave
Tuesday into Tuesday night. By mid to late week, 500mb ridging
looks to return.

...The next 7 days...

Most of the focus early on will be with the precipitation moving
across the FA today and tonight. First and foremost, this will
bring a brief break from the fire weather concerns from the
past two days. The probability for rainfall amounts greater than
a tenth of an inch remains fairly high (50-70 percent), but
within this there may be smaller areas that receive up to a
quarter inch or so (a 20 to 40 percent probability). Also, wind
speeds will be much lower than the past few days, and with the
precipitation, minimum RHs will be higher too.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday look sunny and temperatures should
rebound. At this point, the fire weather potential doesn`t look
too high, with minimum RHs again holding up with wind speeds
not that high. The chances for showers return again Monday
night and Tuesday into Tuesday night. Once again, this does not
look like a big event, with the probability for a quarter inch
of rain generally less than 25 percent. With ridging returning
by mid to late week, it would bring warming temperatures and no
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Overall, not expecting any visibility reductions from the light
rain today. However, models are indicating lowering ceilings,
into the MVFR range as the steadier light rain moves in. Light
winds this morning will become north at 5 to 15 mph this
afternoon, then they will become light again tonight. Not seeing
any indications for fog at this point, but will monitor that
through the day.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon