189
FXUS63 KFGF 020148
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
848 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled week ahead. Shower and t-storm chances spread east
  Tuesday late into Wednesday, then again Friday into Saturday.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Tuesday afternoon and evening over the Devils Lake Basin.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Wednesday afternoon and evening over eastern North Dakota and
  the Red River valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...Synopsis...

An active weather pattern will continue this week as the H5 ridge
axis flattens and moves slowly to the east. A cut off low remains in
place in eastern Montana this afternoon, but will be drifting slowly
to the northeast tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday. This will be a
source of showers and thunderstorms over the next several days
before merging with the H5 flow and moving eastward late this week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected both Tuesday and
Wednesday, with impact areas depending on the progression of the
aforementioned upper low and the associated shortwaves. Moving into
Thursday and Friday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain in
the forecast, mainly across the southern portions of the CWA. Timing
remains quite uncertain, however, especially Friday onward into the
weekend. At this time, there are low chances for showers and storms
on Saturday, with a return to potentially strong storms heading into
Sunday and Monday.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Tuesday...

An axis of instability will be in place Tuesday across central North
Dakota. As this axis moves east, thunderstorms are expected to
develop starting during the early afternoon, then move slowly
eastward through late evening. Model soundings have been
consistently showing strong low and mid level lapse rates, as well
as MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/Kg range. Low and mid level shear,
however, will be tied closely to the axis of instability. As storms
form and move to the east, they will be moving into an environment
with much lower shear and instability, thus potentially limiting the
eastward extent of severe thunderstorms. Several scenarios are
possible, which will be strongly dependent on where the boundary
sets up during the afternoon. Currently, the best chances exist
across the Devils Lake Basin and areas to the south and west. Storm
mode currently favors supercells and/or hybrid clusters, with all
hazards possible.

...Severe Thunderstorm Chances Wednesday...

Heading into Wednesday, the H5 upper low moves slightly further to
the east, thus bringing our axis of instability further into eastern
North Dakota. Where it ends up will depend on a number of factors;
however, there will be another boundary pushing to the southeast
later Wednesday afternoon. This will serve to provide additional
lift and forcing, further supporting thunderstorm development during
the afternoon and evening. Initiation timing is also a bit uncertain
at this time, mainly because there could be remnant showers ongoing
during the morning hours and limiting daytime heating. The
environment will be supportive of severe storms as MLCAPE climbs to
near 2000 J/Kg and lapse rates remain strong. Low to mid level shear
will be located close to the boundary once more; however, better
forcing is expected as the reinforcing boundary pushes to the
southeast during the afternoon and evening. Current storm mode
favors hybrid clusters, followed by the potential for upscale growth
into line segments and/or QLCS. Once more, soundings support all
hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

While VFR conditions are forecast at all sites through the TAF
period, there is a medium chance in impacts from thunderstorms
at KDVL before 00Z Wednesday. There is high confidence in
scattered thunderstorms developing within a broader region of
central North Dakota that move into eastern North Dakota after
20Z, and could impact KDVL between 20Z-06Z.

However, confidence in more refined timing of potential impacts
from storms at KDVL remains low enough to omit this out of the
KDVL TAF for now. Will add TSRA into the TAF as confidence grows
in timeframe of potential impacts in subsequent TAF issuances.
These storms may be strong to severe, bringing gusty winds and
hail in addition to lightning.

There is a medium chance these storms continue to trek eastward
into the Red River Valley between 00Z-12Z Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...CJ