387
FXUS63 KFGF 042012
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
212 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating light snow may impact the early Friday morning
  commute within southeast North Dakota into west-central
  Minnesota.

- Clipper systems bring additional opportunities for winter
  impacts this weekend into next week, particularly around
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...Synopsis...

The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will be generally in the
midst of northwest flow aloft in between broad upper troughing
centered near the Hudson Bay and upper ridging over the eastern
Pacific. Upper jet max on the crest of the Pacific upper trough
will help continually feed energy and moisture into the western
CONUS and CAN, at times phasing with shortwave troughing on the
western flanks of the Hudson Bay troughing. This allows several
shortwave troughs/clippers to traverse the Northern Plains and
Midwest as guided by a rather stagnate baroclinic zone draped
northwest to southeast across the Northern Plains into the
Midwest. This will be the case throughout the forecast period
ending into mid next week.

This active pattern will continue to bring periodic episodes of
snow/wintry precipitation, gusty winds, as well as variable
temperatures ranging from near average to below average. Each
clipper will bring its own potential for winter impacts, mainly
in the sub-advisory category, with the exception of Tuesday and
Wednesday. More details can be found below regarding early
potential impacts early Friday morning and Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Below average temperatures are most favored this weekend behind
a cold front that moves through during the day Friday. Sub-zero
temperatures are forecast, with wind chill values into the
negative 20s Saturday and Sunday.

...Potential Impacts to Early Friday Morning Commute...

The next clipper to impact the area comes across ND into MN late
tonight into Friday. Ensemble and high resolution guidance all
suggest deep saturation throughout the column, including within
an area of synoptic forcing mainly via vorticity advection,
lending credence in snow production. Steep lapse rates aloft
juxtaposed with saturation and forcing will allow for convective
elements to percolate within the area of snow as it traverses
generally west to east across southeast ND into west-central MN
early Friday morning.

While forcing is present, it isn`t overly strong. This will keep
overall snow amounts lower, with 25th-75th percentile
accumulation in the 0.5 to 2.5 inch range. Additionally, a lack
of surface pressure gradient and cold air advection will keep
winds relatively light during its passage. This wouldn`t
normally pose an impact, however, it does move through the I-94
corridor and Fargo-Moorhead metro area within the early Friday
morning commute hours between 4 AM and 8 AM.

Thus, this seemingly innocuous light snow accumulation may
impact unaware morning commuters. Decided to message this
potential for this particular reason.

...Tuesday and Wednesday Potential Impacts...

While there are several potential generally weak clipper systems
between Friday and Tuesday, ensemble guidance agrees in
Tuesday/Wednesday clipper carrying more strength and moisture,
thus greater potential for impacts. Ensembles still vary in
important synoptic evolutions to pin point impact potential and
types of weather hazards that lead to impacts. Despite this
variation, impacts from accumulating snow, gusty winds/blowing
snow, and even wintry precipitation that may result in icing
potential, all appear plausible.

Currently, the chance for advisory-type impacts from this
clipper sits at 40%, with warning-type impacts being around 10%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Impacts to aviation are forecast at all sites, mainly from
lowered ceilings and visibility reductions in the MVFR to IFR
category.

Weak low pressure system moving through the region is creating
gusty south and southwest winds between 15-30kt. This is causing
some areas of blowing snow, mainly within the Red River Valley,
reducing visibility to 1-3SM at sites like KGFK. This will
remain possible through 00Z. Light snow in northwest Minnesota
is also creating visibility reductions in similar range, also
through 00Z.

Lowered ceilings MVFR to IFR category are being reported,
although it is hard to discern whether this is due to blowing
snow/haze or actual cloud deck at sites like KGFK. Regardless,
high resolution and ensemble guidance favors these lowered
ceilings to remain in place throughout the TAF period as another
system quickly moves through tonight into Friday morning. This
second system will bring light snow and lowered visibilities to
portions of southeast ND into west-central MN, impacting KFAR
after 10Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ