096
FXUS63 KFGF 040527
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1127 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several weak clipper systems traverse the area through the
  middle of next week. Light snow and periodic gusty winds are
  possible, primarily in northwest Minnesota and the northern
  Red River Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Additional adjustments were made to account for temperatures
already dropping to forecast lows this evening and not showing
signs of slowing down. Southerly flow and increasing winds are
still forecast by daybreak, however temperatures appear likely
to fall closer to the 25th percentile of NBM based on current
trends. Winds chills are currently in the -15 to -25 range,
though a few brief/localized reports of -30 wind chill values
can`t be ruled out tonight. Coverage and duration limiting
impacts and a Cold Weather Advisory is not being considered at
this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Skies are mostly clear, and outside of locations in our
northwest (along the western edge of the surface ridge) winds
are quickly dropping. Temperatures are also dropping quickly
under good radiational conditions, with many locations in ND
and far northwest MN already below zero. Forecast is on track
for a cold night ahead, and only minor adjustments to capture
near term trends were necessary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...Synopsis...

Cold high pressure is centered over the area this afternoon, and
will slowly move off to the southeast later tonight. Winds are
expected to become light overnight, allowing somewhat favorable
conditions for radiative cooling, especially over areas with deeper
snow pack. Lows across many areas will fall below zero, with
southeast ND and west central MN possibly seeing teens below zero.
While winds will be light overnight, wind chill values are still
likely to fall into the -25 to -20 range through just after sunrise.
Warmer temperatures return on Thursday as the thermal gradient
pushes northward ahead of a warm front. This will bring a chance for
light snow back into the area late Thursday into Friday morning,
mainly for areas in northwest Minnesota. A cold front and clipper
bring cold air and snow chances for Friday evening and overnight
into Saturday morning. Highs on Thursday and Friday are likely to
climb into the 20s, with much colder highs in the single digits on
Saturday. The overnight period Saturday night into Sunday morning
could be the coldest of the season for many locations as lows could
fall into the teens below zero across much of eastern North Dakota,
west central Minnesota, and northwest Minnesota.

Heading into next week, the H5 pattern continues to support the
oscillation between reinforcing cold air and occasional shortwaves
bringing moisture. A thermal gradient looks to remain in place for
the most part, with much of eastern North Dakota to the northeast of
the baroclinic zone. This keeps the area generally on the colder
side; however, brief warmups and precipitation chances are evident
in ensemble guidance. The persistence of this pattern hints at the
potential for active winter weather for the middle of next week
onward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 12Z across
eastern ND and northwest MN. Winds shift to the south and
increase Thursday morning as low pressure builds back in from
the west. This fast moving system brings increasing chances for
MVFR ceilings across northeast ND and northwest MN Thursday
along with a 30% chance for light snow (mainly in MN). An
associated cold front pushes through the region, and with it
winds would begin to shift back to the west late in the TAF
period. Once MVFR ceilings overspread the region late afternoon
they should continue through the evening/overnight Thursday,
with a better chance for IFR ceilings mainly in central MN
(including BJI).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR