Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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740 FXUS63 KFGF 281735 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow tonight into Saturday across far southeast North Dakota and parts of west central Minnesota. 30 percent chance of more than 3 inches in areas near South Dakota border. - Quiet after this system into early next week with below average temperatures. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Some breaks in the clouds on satellite showing up in southeastern ND and west central MN, but will be short lived with more clouds moving in from the west this afternoon. Still getting a few scattered flurries across northern and northeastern portions of the CWA, so will keep flurry mention going. UPDATE Issued at 947 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Expanded and extended flurry mention in the Red River Valley and northwestern MN, as still plenty of obs with -SN reported even as flurries have stopped here at the office. With the shortwave that will clip our southwestern counties approaching later this afternoon, should continue to see some scattered flurries for a while longer ahead of the main snow band. Impacts still look fairly minor even for locations getting accumulating snow later tonight, but will continue to keep an eye on trends. UPDATE Issued at 540 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 FLurries upstream and on radar have diminished a little, but remain in observations more so in NW MN. Will maintain flurries for most of the RRV and NW MN thru 16z. Otherwise stratocu remains, exception being now Rolla thru Devils Lake to Valley City where clearing of lower clouds are occurring. Hard to see, as masked by increasing mid and high level clouds moving in from the west. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...Synopsis... Sfc high pressure ridge axis from southwest Manitoba thru Harvey to Aberdeen SD. Sufficient cloud cover has prevented temps from dropping as much as they could and prevented fog formation. Upstream stratocu continues work south with clouds covering nearly all the fcst area. Tis the season, and at this time doubtful will see much in the way of sunshine periods today. Plus we have mid and high level clouds overspread the area from the west in advance of broad upper trough advancing east/southeast thru the Pacific Northwest. 500 mb low/vort max looks to be near Portland Oregon at 08z. This upper wave moves into central Nebraska Saturday morning. But out ahead of this main wave there are weaker short waves noted in water vapor moving into western SD and up into western or central Montana early this morning. The forecast for today hasnt changed, in that there will be a narrow but intense zone of 800-700 mb frontogenetical forcing from central Montana into central SD developing thru early afternoon and moving southeast later today into this evening into Iowa. Rather narrow but locally intense snow with this, with this staying well to our south. We do have flurries in this cloud area with pockets of light returns and sfc obs showing flurries up to Winnipeg. So did have flurry mention thru mid morning. With the main 500 mb wave into central Nebraska by 18z there is a 500 mb trough extending north from this into North Dakota. This short wave trough will be the forcing for an area of light snow acting on the north edge of 700 mb warm advection that skirts east along the SE ND and NE SD border region tonight into Saturday morning. Main moisture if farther south and forcing for lift not that strong, but enough to generate an area of broad light snow that will be over southeast ND into west central MN overnight tonight into Saturday. Forecast soundings from GFS/NAM show decent moisture up thru 750 mb 12z-18z Saturday period but lift, omega is very weak. So dont anticipate over aggressive SLR ratios nor favorable for dendritic zone enhanced snowfall. Plus wind not a factor as winds will be 10 kts or so. Looking thru all the probs from NBM, GFS,ECMWF, Canadian global ensembles in DESI looks like about an average of around 30 pct chance of more than 3 inches in Sargent county and SW Richland county....down to less than 10 pct Fargo. On the cusp of potential advisory for Sargent county due to snowfall, but will not have advisory at this time due to no nudgers to make 3 inches an advisory level impact. Snow doesnt start til tonight, so dayshift will evaluate further and if amounts creep up a bit more then that may be enough to tilt in favor of advisory. No snow anticipated farther thru GFK or BJI northward. After this system a rather quiet period with no signals for impactful weather. If we can clear out, it will get cold with below zero lows likely esp in new snow areas...double digit below even as coldest airmass any high nearby Sunday night. But center of high pressure ridge will hold more west of our fcst NW into south central ND like the current one, so in those cases clouds always a concern. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 TAFs bouncing between MVFR and VFR, as well as between -SN and NSW with scattered flurries. This will continue through most of the afternoon and evening. Should see more widespread MVFR ceilings later tonight, as well as more light snow at KFAR and KDVL. East winds under 10 kts will become light and variable, then steady out of the north by the end of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle/JR DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...JR