740
FXUS63 KFGF 281735
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Saturday across far southeast North
  Dakota and parts of west central Minnesota. 30 percent chance
  of more than 3 inches in areas near South Dakota border.

- Quiet after this system into early next week with below
  average temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Some breaks in the clouds on satellite showing up in
southeastern ND and west central MN, but will be short lived
with more clouds moving in from the west this afternoon. Still
getting a few scattered flurries across northern and
northeastern portions of the CWA, so will keep flurry mention
going.

UPDATE
Issued at 947 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Expanded and extended flurry mention in the Red River Valley and
northwestern MN, as still plenty of obs with -SN reported even
as flurries have stopped here at the office. With the shortwave
that will clip our southwestern counties approaching later this
afternoon, should continue to see some scattered flurries for a
while longer ahead of the main snow band. Impacts still look
fairly minor even for locations getting accumulating snow later
tonight, but will continue to keep an eye on trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 540 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

FLurries upstream and on radar have diminished a little, but
remain in observations more so in NW MN. Will maintain flurries
for most of the RRV and NW MN thru 16z. Otherwise stratocu
remains, exception being now Rolla thru Devils Lake to Valley
City where clearing of lower clouds are occurring. Hard to see,
as masked by increasing mid and high level clouds moving in from
the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...Synopsis...

Sfc high pressure ridge axis from southwest Manitoba thru Harvey
to Aberdeen SD. Sufficient cloud cover has prevented temps from
dropping as much as they could and prevented fog formation.
Upstream stratocu continues work south with clouds covering
nearly all the fcst area. Tis the season, and at this time
doubtful will see much in the way of sunshine periods today.
Plus we have mid and high level clouds overspread the area from
the west in advance of broad upper trough advancing
east/southeast thru the Pacific Northwest. 500 mb low/vort max
looks to be near Portland Oregon at 08z. This upper wave moves
into central Nebraska Saturday morning. But out ahead of this
main wave there are weaker short waves noted in water vapor
moving into western SD and up into western or central Montana
early this morning.

The forecast for today hasnt changed, in that there will be a
narrow but intense zone of 800-700 mb frontogenetical forcing
from central Montana into central SD developing thru early
afternoon and moving southeast later today into this evening
into Iowa. Rather narrow but locally intense snow with this,
with this staying well to our south. We do have flurries in this
cloud area with pockets of light returns and sfc obs showing
flurries up to Winnipeg. So did have flurry mention thru mid
morning.

With the main 500 mb wave into central Nebraska by 18z there is
a 500 mb trough extending north from this into North Dakota.
This short wave trough will be the forcing for an area of light
snow acting on the north edge of 700 mb warm advection that
skirts east along the SE ND and NE SD border region tonight into
Saturday morning. Main moisture if farther south and forcing for
lift not that strong, but enough to generate an area of broad
light snow that will be over southeast ND into west central MN
overnight tonight into Saturday. Forecast soundings from GFS/NAM
show decent moisture up thru 750 mb 12z-18z Saturday period but
lift, omega is very weak. So dont anticipate over aggressive SLR
ratios nor favorable for dendritic zone enhanced snowfall. Plus wind
not a factor as winds will be 10 kts or so. Looking thru all the
probs from NBM, GFS,ECMWF, Canadian global ensembles in DESI looks
like about an average of around 30 pct chance of more than 3 inches
in Sargent county and SW Richland county....down to less than 10 pct
Fargo. On the cusp of potential advisory for Sargent county due to
snowfall, but will not have advisory at this time due to no nudgers
to make 3 inches an advisory level impact. Snow doesnt start til
tonight, so dayshift will evaluate further and if amounts creep up a
bit more then that may be enough to tilt in favor of advisory. No
snow anticipated farther thru GFK or BJI northward.

After this system a rather quiet period with no signals for
impactful weather. If we can clear out, it will get cold with
below zero lows likely esp in new snow areas...double digit
below even as coldest airmass any high nearby Sunday night. But
center of high pressure ridge will hold more west of our fcst NW
into south central ND like the current one, so in those cases
clouds always a concern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

TAFs bouncing between MVFR and VFR, as well as between -SN and
NSW with scattered flurries. This will continue through most of
the afternoon and evening. Should see more widespread MVFR
ceilings later tonight, as well as more light snow at KFAR and
KDVL. East winds under 10 kts will become light and variable,
then steady out of the north by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR