599
FXUS63 KFGF 251624
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1024 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Falling and blowing snow impacts today into this evening,
  particularly southeast North Dakota into west central
  Minnesota.

- Colder temperatures arrive behind this system with below
  normal temperatures into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

We have made some significant headline changes as of 10 AM.

First, southeastern ND into west central MN has been upgraded to
a winter storm warning. About a half hour ago, WFO BIS received
a report of 6.7 inches in LaMoure county. We also received a
report of 2 inches of snow in the Gwinner area about an hour
ago. As the TROWAL continues to push push east through the
morning/afternoon hours, 3-5 hours of snowfall rates up to 1
inch per hour will foster a swatch of 6 to 8 inches of snow.
The higher totals we expect to reside along the ND/SD border.
These heavy snowfall rates in combination with winds gusting up
to 40 mph have resulted in poor visibility as low as a quarter
mile at times.

Tweaks were made to the advisory in the Devils Lake Basin, with
an extension through 6 PM. Remaining headlines appear on track,
with no changes planned.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Radar and obs showing the heaviest snow just north of the vort
center in south central ND roughly between JMS/BIS. Sfc low is
moving southeast still and looks to be between Aberdeen and
Huron SD. HRRR 11z run shows continued idea of heaviest snow on
north and northeast edge of 500 mb low moving east thru SD, with
peak snow rates a little earlier than prev written....looks to
be 16z-19z period in SE ND. Issues in regards to snow amounts is
that temps will remain around 30-32 degrees and thus highly
variable snow accumulations from grass to concrete..though in
heavier snow rates will be enough to accumulate on concrete.
This area along SD border will still need to be watched for
heavier snow and warning impacts. Winds will increase this aftn
but snow is quite wet and heavy and outside of winds with
falling snow, not expecting a big blowing snow impact once any
snow ends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor at 09z shows the well defined short wave entering
western SD and this will move east thru South Dakota into
southern Minnesota this evening. Mesoanalysis shows weak surface
low that moving southeast into southwest ND in between Bismarck
and Hettinger. A new low will develop and absorb this low today
and over east central SD into southern Minnesota and move east.
The tightest pressure gradient with northwest winds occurs from
southwest and south central ND into South Dakota and southwest
MN thru this evening. Enough of a pressure gradient for gusty
winds thru eastern ND/western MN as well, strongest southern
valley, but this will occur as low moves more into south central
MN mid to late aftn. Area of snow with this system over central
into eastern ND. The snow-no snow line has been near Bottineau
to Cando so far with trace amounts Cando via webcam and no snow
Langdon, Rolla to Bottineau. Based on latest HRRR main snow will
indeed move southeast and focus higher snowfall totals 4+ inches
in southeast ND into west central MN and south into parts of
SD/central MN. So overall sag south in heavier totals remains.

HREF indicate 1+ inch snow rates possible this aftn for a 3 hour
time along the SD/ND border Forman, Wahpeton areas. This is area
of max QPF as well and also closer to higher wind speeds in SD.
Therefore this area right along SD border will need to be
watched closely for warning impacts this aftn as the main snow
looks to be centered around 20-23z.

North edge of snowfall will see light accumulations with mostly
1-3 inches along Hwy 2 from Devils Lake thru Grand Forks with
3-4 Bemidji...with higher south. Based on obs in Langdon, Rolla
it is likely very little snow falls Grafton and north today and
in far northwest MN along Manitoba border. Even Grand Forks-TRF
area on the edge and may well see under an inch, but tight
gradient in the area so will maintain advisory for 1-3 inch
potential along Hwy 2.

System is quite progressive with snow ending most all areas
before midnight.

Colder air moves in behind this system, with temperatures
running below normal into early next week. Not unusually cold
for this time  of year, but coldest by far so far this month.

An area of snow will move southeast with an upper wave from
Montana into eastern SD Friday into Friday night, with northeast
edge of some light snow into southwest 1/2 of the fcst area. At
this time any amounts look to be very light and impacts from
this minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

TAFs are going to be extremely variable, changeable thru the day
due to vsbys in snow and ceilings, particularly true in Fargo.
But also in other areas such as GFK mainly this morning. North
winds increasing midday and aftn with gusts over 30 kts in east
central/southeast ND and this evening west central MN (west of
the trees).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ049-
     052-053.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ014-
     015-024-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     NDZ027>030-038-039.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     MNZ001>003-013>017-022-023-027.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ024-028-
     031-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ029-
     030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle