773
FXUS63 KFGF 271947
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
147 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off Lake Effect snow southeast of Lake of the Woods
  through Saturday. 1-3 inches of snow is possible for places
  from Baudette to Big Falls

- Snow Friday night into Saturday across far southeast North Dakota
  with a 30 percent chance of more than 3 inches.

- Below average temperatures continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...Synopsis...

Overall, very little change in the upper air pattern over the next
week, as a trough over the eastern half of Canada influences flow
over the Northern Plains. In the short term, a high diving out of
Canada will pass through tonight, bringing calm winds. Combined with
recent snowpack, patchy fog is possible, especially south of
Highway 200 where a deeper snowpack exists. Thereafter, our FA,
stuck in northwest flow for really the next seven days, will
see multiple rounds of light snow and reinforcing shots of cold
air. Each round of cold air looks to be a little chillier then
the last, which will result in widespread low temperatures below
zero by early next week.

...Lake Effect Snow...

A handful of flurries over northwestern MN have been occuring under
the stratus deck this afternoon, but there is a very small area
downwind of the Lake of the Woods that is seeing a bit more snow due
to lake enhancement. The MNDOT camera south of Baudette has
shown snow from time to time with some limited accumulation.
While the pattern is favorable for light snow downwind of the
lake to fall in the same locations for a long period (consistent
northwest wind over the longest possible fetch of the lake),
the delta T between the now much colder water temps this time of
year and the airmass above seem to be limiting more consistent
snowfall. Periods of light snow will continue through Saturday
when winds finally shift direction, but the highest
accumulations will likely stay east of Baudette in WFO DLH`s
FA.

...Snow Late Friday into Saturday...

Early Friday, an open wave will begin traveling south and east
across the plains of Montana. In turn, isentropic ascent in a
broad area of warm air advection will lead to a shield of snow
across much of the Dakotas late Friday into Saturday, with a
narrower, heavier band driven by frontogensis setting up somewhere
to the west of our FA. However, the northeastern edge of the
lighter shield of snow will reside in our southwestern FA.
Looking at soundings, snowfall ratios look to be on light and
fluffy side, which will be very different from the cement like
snow consistency we saw with the early week system. Luckily,
winds during this system look light (under 20 mph), and lag the
period of "heaviest" snowfall rates. Probabilities of 50% or
greater to see an inch of snow or more run along a line from
Barnes county through Grant county MN. Probabilities for 3
inches or more of snow are highest in Sargent county, with
probabilities hovering around 30%. No headlines were issued on
this shift, but if the track of the low shifts back a bit more
to the north, an advisory may need to be considered for a few of
our FA`s southwestern counties. Chances of this happening right
now seem low, however.

...Colder Weather...

While temperatures have cooled the past few days behind the
departing low pressure system on Tuesday, the largest drop in
temperatures will come behind the Saturday system this weekend.
The coldest air of the season so far will settle in to end the
weekend and start the work week. Low temperatures Monday morning
are forecast to be below zero across the entire FA, but
depending on the exact placement of the high pressure Sunday
night, temperatures may manage to get a bit colder then what is
shown right now. We should moderate a little bit next
Tuesday/Wednesday as ensembles hint at a wave coming through,
before northwest flow dumps another chunk of arctic air into the
Northern Plains at the tail end of the forecast period late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A cloud deck is pushing southward into the area from Canada.
Ceilings upstream have generally remained VFR, with a few
pockets of MVFR. Kept TAFs VFR except for KBJI, where MVFR
ceilings will prevail through the evening hours. Winds will
remain under 15 knots throughout the TAF period, northerly
today, switching to the southeast very late in the TAF period at
KDVL. There are hints in model guidance that fog could develop
tonight, with the most at risk terminal being KFAR. Too much
uncertainty at this time to add any mention in the TAF, but it
will need to be monitored moving forward.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty