Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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175 FXUS63 KFGF 081726 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next rain chance is Saturday afternoon through midday Sunday with a 40-50 percent chance of more than 0.10 inches in far southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Updated aviation section below. UPDATE Issued at 953 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 A quiet day is still on track, with abundant sunshine and fairly light winds. The current forecast covers this well, so no adjustments are needed. UPDATE Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 The high based cirrus has since moved south out of our Regional. Winds are still from the North at around 6 mph. Winds are expected to shift to the south as the area of high pressure moves eastward through the Northern Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 ...Synopsis... A 500mb ridge sets up briefly over us as a low pressure system resides over the four corners region of the United States. As this low pressure system rejoins the flow, chances for rain will increase starting Saturday morning and ending Sunday morning. As a the low exits the Region an area of high pressure takes its place to give us the next opportunity for precipitation on Tuesday. Today: A high pressure system will reside over us keeping the winds light but variable as the high spins over us this morning. By late afternoon the winds will be out of the south but still maintaining a light breeze. Skies will be mostly clear as the only clouds will be this high band of cirrus working its way south this morning. Temperatures look to be in the low 50s across the CWA with temperatures dropping into the 30`s during the overnight period. Saturday and Sunday: The low pressure system makes its way Northeast from the four corners region into the Central Plains and exiting our region near the Arrowhead of Minnesota and into the Great Lakes Region. By the time the Low reaches the Northern Plains it looks to be occluded giving us lighter end for precipitation amounts. However, this system still has weak synoptic support with some warm air advection with some pockets of transient frontogensis. Meaning overall this looks to be a light banded rainfall event by in isolated locations there will be enhanced rainfall amounts where the pockets of frontogensis occur. The NBM is still painting an arching swath of 40 to 50 percent probs to exceed 0.10 inches of rain and 10 to 15 percent probs to exceed 0.25 inches. As we start moving into the range of the Hi-Res ensemble guidance we should expect to see a more defined area of higher probs as the pockets of enhanced rainfall gets further resolved. Given that 925mb temperatures haven`t changed from the 4C to 10C range its still safe to assume this will be an all rain event. This light rain is expected to end Sunday morning with an area of high pressure following behind Sunday afternoon. Monday through Thursday: An upper level trough skirts by to our North to bring in some clouds and possible sprinkles in the early morning hours but no measurable precipitation is expected. A stronger ridging pattern pushes in Monday afternoon to keep us dry until another potential makes its way into Manitoba to potential give us precipitation Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 The arrival of the next round of precipitation will occur just beyond this TAF period. Therefore, only featuring winds in the 5 to 15 mph range turning from southeast to south and increasing high level clouds. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...Godon