640
FXUS63 KFGF 040346
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1046 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible again on
  Wednesday. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a
  few stronger storms could produce lightning and wind gusts to
  40 mph.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Winds have dropped across the region with clouds also
dissipating for the evening leaving mostly clear skies minus the
Devils Lake Basin with closer proximity to the arriving
upstream shortwave which will provide the forcing for showers/
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 551 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Showers never really managed to get going this afternoon with
what appears to be too much dry air to compete with despite the
steep near sfc lapse rates. Overall looking to winds to drop
between 7-9pm with calm conditions overnight and somewhat clear
skies. Thunderstorm chances yet again tomorrow primarily between
HWY 2 and I94/HWY10.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...Synopsis...

Broad upper trough over most of the north central CONUS will
continue to have weak shortwaves rotating around it into the
Northern Plains through tonight and into the end of the week.
The weak shortwaves will bring a few rounds of showers and even
thunderstorms, although severe impacts at this point seem
minimal. A stronger shortwave coming through SD/NE into MN by
Friday will help turn flow northwesterly by Saturday, with a
fairly strong surface trough moving through. An upper low diving
into the midwest and Great Lakes will bring northwesterly flow
aloft Sunday and into the early part of next week.

...Showers and weak thunderstorm chances this afternoon...

Water vapor loop shows a fairly vigorous shortwave swinging
through eastern ND. While moisture is not huge, there have been
some towering cu and a few radar blips developing from Fargo to
Bemidji in the past hour or so. MU CAPE is only around 100-200
J/kg, but the day cloud phase distinction satellite loop is
showing some ice formation at a few of the tops. Don`t think
there will be widespread thunderstorm activity and definitely
don`t expect severe impacts, but can`t rule out an isolated
lightning strike and a few light rain showers in west central MN
this afternoon and evening. Included some low POPs, and will
continue to monitor for any lightning activity.

...Thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening...

Another shortwave will be coming around the base of the upper
trough tomorrow. NBM mean is not too impressive with the mean
CAPE values, under 400 J/kg, but a few of the deterministic runs
have outliers a bit on the more unstable side, between 500-1000
J/kg. The top end of that range is probably overdone, but even
with CAPE values staying in the 100s instead of 1000+, some
thunderstorms could develop. NBM probabilities are around 40 to
50 percent for lightning activity in some spots tomorrow
evening. Unlikely to get any widespread severe impacts given
limited instability, but lightning and brief wind gusts to 40
mph could put a damper on outdoor activities in a few locations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

VFR conditions tonight with winds going light overnight from
the SW with increasing speeds back above 10 kts late Wednesday
morning (15-17z) and gusts nearing 20kts by the mid afternoon.
Afternoon thunderstorms after 20/21z with all sites seeing at
least a 30 percent chance of storms. Cigs staying VFR through
the period at or above 15kft.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT