849
FXUS63 KFGF 112341
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms overnight and again Wednesday evening will
  bring strong to severe storms to southeast North Dakota.

- Multiple rain chances with a 50% chance for a cumulative half
  inch through early next week for most areas across the
  region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Severe thunderstorm watch will be in effect for Barnes, Ransom,
and Sargent County through 1 AM CDT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...Synopsis...

Currently a very elongated ridge exists across the southern
CONUS with zonal to WNW mid level flow in the northern CONUS. As
we progress through the week, ridging over the four corners
into Texas panhandle will amplify. At the same time PNW
troughing begins to turn flow more zonal over us as the ridge
gets pushed east. By Thursday SW flow looks to dominate the
western CONUS bringing pacific moisture over the Rockies with
embedded shortwaves. Certainly still differences remaining among
clusters but the potential for a wet late week/weekend
continues to increase. Current guidance is now favoring western
areas (eastern North Dakota) over eastern areas (northwest
Minnesota) with a 60% chance for over half an inch in the next
seven days vs only 40% chance out east. As much of this rain
looks to be more convective and thunderstorm driven vs a slow
soaking rain totals will likley vary greatly over short
distances.

- Severe threat today

This morning MUCAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg atop a nearly stationary
surface boundary led to the formation of a lone supercell that
tracked from north of Jamestown towards Fort Ransom dropping up
to baseball sized hail along the way. Overall this was mostly a
surprise and not in the forecast given the skinny CAPE, however
the very favorable straight hodos and eff shear of around 50kts
at least helped explain it a little. Looking ahead to this
evening CAMS largely maintain the instability across the area
but fail to convect despite an overall capable environment
should a forcing mechanism exist. The chance for a storm this
evening is likely less than 10% but if one goes, something
similar to this morning is certainly possible. By the overnight
there is higher confidence in storms forming west of Bismarck
and moving east reaching the James/Sheyenne river valleys around
4-5am. Storms still look to be elevated and a primary hail
threat, but cant 100% rule out damaging winds. This threat
would persist into the mid morning hours mainly for southeast
North Dakota and perhaps west central Minnesota is storms made
it that far east.

- Severe threat Wednesday

A more pronounced shortwave will roll across the Dakotas
Wednesday evening bringing forcing for widespread convection.
thunderstorms may occasionally have large hail and gusty winds
but overall this looks to be more of a general
thunderstorm/widespread rain event for eastern North Dakota.
Amounts will generally will be a quarter to half inch but
isolated totals in excess of 1" are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
There is a low probability for isolated thunderstorms in the
vicinity of KFAR late in the period, however, confidence is
still too low to bring PROB30 into the TAFs at this time. Winds
remain light and variable tonight, then increase slightly early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Lynch