006
FXUS63 KFGF 240123
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
723 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will start tonight and continue through Monday. No
  more than a dusting of snow accumulation is expected, but
  there could be some freezing drizzle mixing in tonight into
  Sunday and there is a 10 percent chance for some minor winter
  impacts near the Canadian border.


- Colder air from Thanksgiving day into next Saturday will
  combine with northwest winds for our first subzero wind chills
  of the season.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Radar returns across the Devils Lake Basin are generally not
producing precipitation at the ground. Observations a bit closer
to the International Border occasionally confirm light snow at
times, however. Adjusted PoPs in for Sunday as guidance is
showing a better chance for saturation in west-central
Minnesota. QPF increased slightly, but still remains somewhat
low, with snowfall potential still expected to be generally less
than one inch.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...Synopsis...

After brief upper ridging between systems today, a strong
shortwave moving into southeastern Saskatchewan will help bring
another chance for light precipitation for tonight and the rest
of the weekend. The upper system will slowly move into Manitoba
and then northern MN by Monday, helping push an inverted trough
axis and eventually a cold front through our CWA by the start of
the work week. A bit of a break on Tuesday with northwesterly
flow aloft, then another clipper system comes trough Wednesday
and a more amplified trough digs down out of Canada Thursday.
Northwesterly flow aloft and cold surface high pressure will
build in for the holiday weekend.

...Winter precipitation tonight into Monday...

While the main upper low, surface reflection, and the bulk of
the precipitation will remain in Canada with this system, there
is still the inverted surface trough extending down into the
Northern Plains. A lead shortwave will come out tonight and help
bring some light precipitation to far northeastern ND near the
Turtle Mountains. QPF from all ensemble members continue to seem
light, with just a dusting of snow expected. The higher impacts
could be if we get a dry layer aloft that some of the models are
indicating. With no saturation in the dendritic growth layer,
freezing drizzle will be the main precipitation type. And even
small amounts of that will cause impacts. However, confidence in
the FZDZ is not high, and think there is only around a 10
percent chance for minor winter impacts tonight into Sunday.
Have a mention of snow and FZDZ in the grids and HWO, but no
headlines for now. Snow will continue to push east through
tomorrow and Sunday night, with some weak frontogenesis but
quick moving and again amounts are expected to be very light.
Deformation zone will be well north of us in Canada but could
see some lingering snow showers/flurries into Monday on the
backside of the system, with minimal amounts.

...Cold Thanksgiving weekend...

After another clipper moves through mid-week, a trough digging
down from Canada will bring some lower heights and colder air
into the region for the holiday and beyond. R and M climate
percentiles are well below average for temperatures and 500 mb
heights, and above average for sea level pressure. With the cold
snap expected, there will be a high but at least some wind and
the possibility of wind chills down around -10 to -20. At this
point not quite headline worthy for cold, but definitely the
coldest we`ve seen so far this season.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to develop during the
remainder of the evening and into the overnight hours across
much of the area. Light precipitation is showing up on radar;
however most of this is not yet reaching the ground. As we head
through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning, light
precip will have a better chance of reaching the ground in the
form of light snow or light FZDZ, especially at KDVL.
Accumulations will be minimal with this system. Ceilings are
likely to remain in IFR to MVFR territory through at least the
first half of Sunday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch