255
FXUS63 KFGF 081130
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
530 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next rain chance is Saturday afternoon through midday
  Sunday with a 40-50 percent chance of more than 0.10 inches in
  far southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The high based cirrus has since moved south out of our Regional.
Winds are still from the North at around 6 mph. Winds are
expected to shift to the south as the area of high pressure
moves eastward through the Northern Plains.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...Synopsis...

A 500mb ridge sets up briefly over us as a low pressure system
resides over the four corners region of the United States. As
this low pressure system rejoins the flow, chances for rain will
increase starting Saturday morning and ending Sunday morning.
As a the low exits the Region an area of high pressure takes its
place to give us the next opportunity for precipitation on
Tuesday.

Today: A high pressure system will reside over us keeping the winds
light but variable as the high spins over us this morning. By late
afternoon the winds will be out of the south but still maintaining a
light breeze. Skies will be mostly clear as the only clouds will be
this high band of cirrus working its way south this morning.
Temperatures look to be in the low 50s across the CWA with
temperatures dropping into the 30`s during the overnight period.

Saturday and Sunday: The low pressure system makes its way Northeast
from the four corners region into the Central Plains and exiting our
region near the Arrowhead of Minnesota and into the Great Lakes
Region. By the time the Low reaches the Northern Plains it looks to
be occluded giving us lighter end for precipitation amounts.
However, this system still has weak synoptic support with some warm
air advection with some pockets of transient frontogensis. Meaning
overall this looks to be a light banded rainfall event by in
isolated locations there will be enhanced rainfall amounts where the
pockets of frontogensis occur. The NBM is still painting an arching
swath of 40 to 50 percent probs to exceed 0.10 inches of rain and 10
to 15 percent probs to exceed 0.25 inches. As we start moving into
the range of the Hi-Res ensemble guidance we should expect to see a
more defined area of higher probs as the pockets of enhanced
rainfall gets further resolved. Given that 925mb temperatures haven`t
changed from the 4C to 10C range its still safe to assume this will
be an all rain event. This light rain is expected to end Sunday
morning with an area of high pressure following behind Sunday
afternoon.

Monday through Thursday: An upper level trough skirts by to our
North to bring in some clouds and possible sprinkles in the early
morning hours but no measurable precipitation is expected. A
stronger ridging pattern pushes in Monday afternoon to keep us dry
until another potential makes its way into Manitoba to potential
give us precipitation Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Clear skies and winds between 5 to 10 knots through the TAF
period for prevailing VFR conditions. Winds are expected to make
a shift from the North to the South as the area of high pressure
moves through our TAF sites today. Winds are expected to be
from the south by 18z but the area of high pressure may push
that back to 20z depending on how fast the High pressure moves
out the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...MM