511
FXUS63 KFGF 052335
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
535 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to moderate snow is expected this evening through
  Thursday morning (Heaviest in NW Minnesota), with blowing snow
  expanding in coverage during the overnight hours (best chance
  in eastern North Dakota). Wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph are
  possible.

- Hazardous wind chills are expected across the Devils Lake
  Basin tonight through around noon Thursday, with wind chills
  as low as 30 below zero.

- Another winter system will bring the potential for travel
  impacts to portions of the region, mainly along and south of
  I-94. There is a 60 percent or higher chance for 4 or more
  inches of snow for areas south of I-94.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...Synopsis...

A progressive H5 pattern prevails in the coming days, bringing
several chances for winter impacts to the region. The first
shortwave traverses the flow tonight into Thursday, with light to
moderate snow expected across portions of eastern North Dakota and
northwest Minnesota. Winds increase tonight into Thursday morning,
with gusts up to 45 mph, especially west of the Red River. Much
colder air will pour into the region, with wind chills falling as
low as 30 below zero during the late overnight hours through around
midday Thursday. The next system approaches the area Friday into
Saturday, bringing a chance for moderate to heavy snow to areas
mainly along and south of I-94. This will be in response to rather
strong Fgen along the baroclinic zone.

...Snow and Blowing Snow Tonight and Thursday...

Guidance continues to show signals for banded snow across portions
of the area. CAMs vary regarding the upper limit of heavier
accumulations, but show decent agreement regarding snowfall rates.
The heaviest bands could produce 1 inch per hour or more in response
to a deep DGZ and relatively strong lift. Probability for 2 or more
inches remains highest in northwest Minnesota (near 100 percent
chance). For the Red River Valley, those probs fall to about 60
percent in the central valley, with only about a 30 percent chance
in the far northern valley. For the Devils Lake Basin, chances are
less than 20 percent for the 2 inch amounts. Winds shift to the west
later tonight as the trough passes to our east. Strong CAA and
decent pressure rises will facilitate wind gusts upwards of 45 mph
west of the Red River Valley, with gusts up to 40 mph in the Red
River Valley proper. As such, blowing snow is a concern across much
of northeastern North Dakota and into the Red River Valley.

...Hazardous Wind Chills Tonight and Thursday...

The combination of gusty winds and much colder air will lead to
hazardous wind chills as low as 30 below zero late tonight into
Thurday. Temperatures recover slightly heading into midday, with
winds tapering off gradually during the afternoon.

...Winter Impacts Possible Fri into Sat...

There is a 60 percent chance for snowfall totals greater than 4
inches, mainly along and south of I-94 late Friday into Saturday.
Thus far, there remains some uncertainty regarding the location of
the heaviest amounts; however, the signal for banding is very
consistent across the southern portions of the area. The probability
for 6 or more inches of snow is roughly 30 percent along the SD/ND
border in far southeastern North Dakota as well as west-central
Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Intermittent 1/4SM can be expected for the first 6 hours of the
TAF period as heavier bands of snow work its way through.
Generally MVFR to IFR visibilities should prevail, however.
Ceilings will remain MVFR for the first 12 hours of the TAF
period with a low chance to hit IFR ceilings at BJI. Winds
should remain elevated and shift to the west later this evening
and overnight. Winds will increase in magnitude as it becomes
westerly, increasing the risk for blowing snow, although how
severe visibility dropoffs are are very uncertain so for now
expect at least MVFR visibilities through tommorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Thursday for NDZ008-016-
     027-030-039.
     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
     Thursday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
     Thursday for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-054.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Thursday for MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>015-022-027-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for MNZ006-009-
     016-017-023-024.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux