497
FXUS63 KFGF 131739
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There remains strong synoptic predictability in a pattern
  change early next week with the potential for accumulating
  snow and travel impacts Tuesday through Thursday.

- Conditions remain favorable in the near term for above
  average temperatures through the weekend with a low potential
  hydrologic impacts related to snowmelt.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Fog has continued to clear out across the county warning area.
Thus, the Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled due to rapidly improved
conditions. No other changes were needed at this time as the
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 417 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Seeing fog and 1/4SM vsbys expanding southward into Fergus
Falls, Park Rapids and Wadena between 09-10z and also patchy
dense fog into Bemidji per webcams. And ongoing fog Crookston,
Fosston north to Hallock, Roseau, Warroad and Lake of the Woods.
So expanded the dense fog advisory to include most of our MN
forecast area thru 15z.   No other changes were made.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

...Synopsis...

Synoptic agreement remains strong among ensemble members
indicating relatively high synoptic predictability through early
next week. The current zonal flow 0in the northern stream of
the CONUS split flow regime will bring another low amplitude
shortwave across the area today with another weak wave cresting
the quickly eastward propagating southwestern US ridge this
weekend. Pacific troughing is then expected to arrive in a pair
of distinct vorticity maxima (one in southern/central California
and one in BC/Washington) by Monday. These are currently
modeled to remain separate waves but there remains scenarios
where they do phase which would significantly alter the
forecast. Assuming that doesnt happen though the first wave
would likley eject into the central/northern plains Tuesday amid
hybrid zonal/SW flow aloft. The second trough remains fixed
back in the PNW with shortwave activity permeating east through
northern tier states with low confidence in the potential for
impacts from any of these waves. Most ensembles members seem to
develop Plains/Southeast ridging toward the end of next week
though significant amplitude differences remain decreasing
confidence in temperature and precipitation trends beyond next
Wednesday.

- Fog Tonight

The current ribbon of fog situated up the western side of the
Red River as of 1 PM seems surprisingly well modeled by the 12z
HREF and increases confidence into tonight in the broadening and
formation of fog across much of northwest Minnesota. Things
look to begin expanding as the sun sets with much of the eastern
Valley seeing fog expanding by 6pm and a greater than 60%
chance for visibility < 0.25sm east of the Red River east into
Wadena and north to Bemidji and Lake of the Woods. There may
very well be a need for another dense fog advisory tonight but
will wait until this evening as things get going just to get
some confirmation in it happening as this is not the first night
in the last week fog has been forecast to form but never
materialized. Fog looks to breakup or least become more patchy
beginning around noon Friday.

- Warm Friday to Sunday

A quick moving clipper to our north on Saturday will bring
westerly downslope winds to southeast North Dakota with
favorably clear skies atop a greatly eroded snowpack the from
the last few days of warmth. All together this should lead to
some local over achieving on high temps with something closer to
the NBM 75-90 possible from Valley City to Fargo and south to
the SD border. This would place daily high temperatures in the
low 50s which would near or beat currently daily records. Note
daily records down there are only in the mid 40s on Saturday vs
records in the low to mid 50s on Friday and Sunday thus the lack
of talk about nearing records on those days despite similarly
warm temperatures.

- Winter Impact Potential

Our first chance at more than a dusting of snow for a majority
of the area in what will have been over 2 weeks comes Tuesday
into Thursday next week. Considerable uncertainty remains in a
few facets of the system but can really be boiled down to just a
few points.

Track) A more southerly track would likely result in a likely
weaker upper low and surface low and less QPF across the area. A
more northerly track would bring a stronger system in general
and more QPF. Conversely these tracks also tie into the second
point.

Speed of the system) with a weaker system having less
downstream blocking and thus departing the area faster vs a
stronger system having more blocking and lingering longer.

Looking at some probabilities and trying to avoid the hype that
some deterministic solutions have been showing we see the broad
uncertainty that exists in QPF and snowfall. At the 25th
percentile (NBM 4.3) with around 0.1" QPF/1" snowfall and the
75th percentile at 0.5-0.75" QPF/6-10" snowfall. As can be noted
by the wide range the potential for one of our bigger snowfall
events of the winter clearly exists but the potential for this
to also be an afterthought and bust is very much real as well.
The forecast will evolve and this range will undoubtedly narrow
and converge on a solution, we just simply dont have the
information at this time to tell in which direction it trends.
Please continue to monitor the forecast if you have travel plans
or could be impacted by other means, but also be sure to follow
trusted sources and not just those screaming the loudest from
the rooftop :)

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. There
is a chance that some MVFR and maybe IFR CIGs returning to
Thief River Falls early tomorrow morning. Hi-Res models are
showing a narrow band of low stratus forming across Northern
Minnesota early tomorrow. However, confidence is low on the
likelihood of the fog forming so FG was left out of the TAFs at
this time. Winds will remain light and out of the south to
southwest through the period with no precipitation forecast for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/Johnson
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Johnson