296
FXUS63 KFGF 291728
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for fire weather impacts Friday into this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

No changes were made to the forecast grids overnight.  Overall
with upper trough in Manitoba into E ND today with short wave
energy in the trough moving thru a good deal of cloud cover
anticipated for most.  Cool today... a good 10-15 degrees below
average for highs today. A region of mid level altocu and radar
returns show a few pockets where some precip may reach the
surface as it moves quickly southeast from DVL toward
Fargo/Hillsboro next 1-3 hours. A few snowflakes in Tolna and
Finley. But is is rather isolated and quickly moving so just
left it cloudy and dry in the grids.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...Synopsis...

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a surface low working its
way away from our area, diminishing the pressure gradient and
thus allowing for winds to diminish. Afternoon cumulus has
developed but will remain benign as dewpoints remain fairly dry.
This will diminish after sunset with winds becoming more light
and variable.

The remainder of the week will be mostly rinse and repeat with
temperatures in the 40s and 50s with generally light winds and
dry conditions. Temperatures look to increase this weekend,
which should cause relative humidity values to become lower.
However, there is no strong signal for wind and green up is
ongoing, so the probability for critical fire conditions is low.
Having said that, near critical fire weather conditions may
arise with minimum RH values around 20%, even without wind.
Regardless, this remains the only weather impact for the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

The main story of the afternoon will be the uncertainty in cloud
ceilings. Right now, a broad swath of stratus is eroding as
temperatures warm diurnally, but a few sites in northwest
Minnesota are MVFR. This doesn`t appear to be widespread as the
main ceilings are 3500-5000 ft beneath cloud cover, but there
does appear to be the potential for brief reductions to MVFR at
BJI and TVF this afternoon. This should improve this evening as
northwesterly winds this afternoon between 10-15 knots become
more light and variable. VFR conditions continue overnight
before another cloud deck works its way from Canada into the
CONUS, potentially causing MVFR ceilings at DVL. However,
confidence is low right now so it was not added to the
forecasted TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux