806
FXUS63 KFGF 192036
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
336 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for weather impacts is low over the next 7
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper low is centered over southern Manitoba, with drier BL
conditions and cooler temperatures aloft already in place behind a
cold front (now to the east). Diurnal showers/sprinkles are still
rotating  into northeast ND at the base of this upper low due to the
cold pool/low level lapse rates, but should quickly dissipate with
sunset/decoupling in the low levels. Weak shortwave ridging should
transition over the Northern Plains Friday with another mid/upper
low passing thorugh southern Canada Friday night into Saturday. The
associated cold front as trough passage is shown to support a period
of showers late Friday evening into Saturday morning, with a chance
for light rain across the region. Impacts should be minimal with the
probability for greater than 0.1" less than 20% most locations.
Seasonably mild/cooler temperatures then persist into the majority
of next week. Drier air and less favorable storm tracks then limit
any potential for precipitation (very weak signal on Tuesday). A
trend towards ridging is favored in ensembles by the end of the
week, which should result in increasing temperatures to above
average once again (70s to near 80).

...Winds Saturday Afternoon....

Stronger CAA behind the front may bring a period of windy conditions
during the afternoon Saturday. There is a low chance (less than 5%)
for advisory winds behind the front. Deterministic GFS sounding
mixing heights are deeper and show some gusts in the 45 mph range,
but ensembles and other model soundings are not supportive at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

CU is forming behind the cold front that has already pushed
through northwest MN (east of KBJI) ranging from 2800-6000 FT
agl, with VFR generally prevailing. There may still be brief
dips into MVFR (mainly at KDVL) through the afternoon, but this
shouldn`t prevail. Light showers are developing upstream of
KDVL in northwest ND on the base of the mid level low in Canada
and guidance supports VCSH mention at that TAF site during the
afternoon (lower confidence at other eastern ND/northwest MN
sites). Gusty winds are expected in the afternoon, with gusts
ending at sunset (loss of daytime mixing).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR