708
FXUS63 KFGF 020959
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snowfall may impact travel conditions midday into afternoon
  over parts of eastern North Dakota, mainly west of Devils Lake
  and west of Fargo. The chance for advisory level impacts is 20%.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...Synopsis...

Westerly 500 mb flow into southern BC and Washington state
becomes northwesterly over the Great Lakes region with mean
trough position along the US east coast. This pattern we have
been in for most of the winter continues but does late week and
next week look to break down some as upper trough and cold air
lessens and flow becomes more west and eventually southwesterly
over the northern Plains in about 7-10 days. Until then, upper
level short waves will move into Alberta and then a track
southeast thru the northern Plains. Eventually the track of
these waves will be more north/east of the area as milder air
tries to move in for a brief period Wed-Thu. 500 mb wave is
shown on water vapor satellite this early morning in north
central Montana and this wave will be in northeast/east central
Montana at 12z today and then thru SW ND into north central SD
by 18z today then toward SE SD 00z Tue.

...Today snowfall...

Clouds prevelent to start today over much of the area with drier
925-850 mb airmass upstream in Manitoba north of Winnipeg. Drier
north wind 10 kts will occur today over most of the area and
keep the snow from the southeast moving short wave more so NW
into south central ND into northeast SD. Using a blend of
various CAMs and HREF a narrow zone of enhanced lift aided by
850 mb warm advection is quite noticeable in the Regina-Estevan
SK to Minot-Jamestown region thru early afternoon, before
weakening. CAMS and HREF indicate narrow zone of potential 3+
inch of snow in that zone as well. All indications from the warm
advection zone that this heavier snowfall will stay to our
west....with eastern edge of snowfall today limited to DVL-FAR
and west/south with Devils Lake and Fargo cities proper on the
far east edge of any snow. Heavier snowfall potential is just
west of the our area, with 1 inch or so of snow western Benson
county to Valley City/Barnes county area. Frontogenetical
forcing is present as well, but seems a bit displaced to the
notheast from main 850 mb warm advection and likely snow area
and also it is transient so not set over one area.

Snow chances end late today/early evening in SE ND. High
pressure dropping south into S Manitoba tonight will bring drier
airmass and should be mostly clear sky to northern RRV and NW
MN. Lingering clouds may hold into Tuesday western and far south
fcst area, with some flurries and light snow possible late
tonight in central ND. This area of 850 mb moisture may well
spread back east Tuesday bringing a bit of light snow or
flurries.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Very few changes were made to the previous set of TAFs. MVFR
will continue overnight, with PROB30 groups showing light snow
on the decrease over the next 3 hours. Ceilings wont budge to
start off Monday, and another system tracking in from the west
will bring snow to KDVL and KFAR, skirting near KGFK. KDVL will
experience the highest impacts, with prevailing IFR
visibilities mid morning into the early afternoon. Narrow bands
of heavier snow may briefly drop visibilities below a mile,
particularly at KDVL and KFAR. Future iterations of the TAF will
need to be monitored for the potential inclusion of a TEMPO
group to account for this, as its a bit too early yet to add one
in. Ceilings will being improving at northwest terminals by
afternoon (KTVF and KBJI). Improvement will be slow to make much
headway to other terminals, with MVFR favored elsewhere
throughout the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty