290
FXUS63 KFGF 032302
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
602 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Snow is likely tonight into Friday, with a 50 percent chance
 for 2 inches or greater within portions of eastern ND. There is
 a 30 percent chance for advisory type impacts within the
 Devils Lake Basin.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Forecast remain on track tonight with respect to snow but a new
addition is the potential for some fog across the forested areas
of northwest/west central Minnesota. High pressure centered to
the southwest in southern Minnesota leading to calm surface
winds combined with moisture from melting snow would be the
primary factors though spatial confidence is low. Time frame of
concern for any fog would be midnight to sunrise with a low
chance for dense fog criteria to be met.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...Synopsis...

Split flow aloft continues to dominate the atmospheric pattern for
the northern plains, with northwesterly flow over southern
Canada and southwesterly flow across the central plains.
Current satellite across the area has a broad area of mid level
clouds across the northern Red River Valley and in northwestern
MN. Temperatures increased quickly underneath the partly sunny
conditions in eastern ND, with highs in the low to mid 40s
currently. For areas where snowpack is deeper temperatures will
be cooler, with highs in the 30s.

Two waves work their way through the flow later tonight and
into tomorrow interacting with one another across North Dakota
and South Dakota. Chances for snow overspread eastern ND and
portions of NW MN later tonight and into Friday. As
temperatures warm in the southern Red River Valley, snow
transitions over to a rain/snow mix briefly before temps cool
and precip mode switches to snow. Post Friday system, we start
to get into a cooler pattern for the weekend, with temperatures
below normal for this time of year. Conditions become dry as
well, with min RH values dropping to the 30s for portions of
northern MN. A weak upper level wave moves through the
northwesterly portion of the split flow Sunday into Monday
bringing weak CAA into the forecast area along with breezy
conditions. This helps plummet temperatures Monday into the low
to mid 30s for daytime highs. Temps rebound as we work through
next week as a ridge starts to develop across much of western
and central CONUS. As this develops and shifts further into our
forecast area temperatures reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Minimum RH values then drop, with values expected to be in the
30s end of next week.

...Snow Chances Tonight into Tomorrow...

Upper level wave moves through southern Manitoba into North Dakota
overnight and into Friday bringing banded snow chances to North
Dakota. Snow develops along the frontal boundary shifting through
the area. Frontogenesis at the 700/850mb level remains strong out in
central North Dakota, with a weaker signal over portions of eastern
North Dakota. A weak signal for snow squalls has been picked up in
the latest runs of the RAP/NAM, but confidence remains low on
development and organization as cold air advection behind the frontal
boundary remains weak.

We do have higher confidence in the strongest Fgen remaining west of
our area, thus the highest snowfall rates remaining in central
North Dakota. In portions of eastern North Dakota we may see
snowfall rates up to a half inch per hour in isolated portions
in the Devil Lake Basin as the front moves through. Nonetheless,
areas within eastern North Dakota have a 50 prevent chance to
see over 2 inches of new snowfall tonight into tomorrow. Advisory
level impacts are possible (30 percent chance) within the
Devils Lake Basin. Winds behind the system will be breezy, but
remain below 25mph limiting any blowing snow impacts.

We transition to a more dry pattern over the weekend and into next
week, with minimum RH values dropping to the 30s at times
through Days 2 to 7. Weak cold air advection on Monday followed
by a warming trend through the work week along with a
developing amplified ridge brings the chance for fire weather
potential near the end of the work week and into the following
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Cumulus clearing this evening with TVF and BJI the main sites
expected to see cloud impacts through midnight. Winds going
light and variable this evening and overnight before a system
moves in tomorrow, with increasing chances for precip 08z for
DVL, 09-13z for GFK, TVF, and FAR, and 16-18z for BJI. RASN is
possible for BJI and FAR as temperatures will be warmer in those
locations as the precipitation moves through. Otherwise,
ceilings will be MVFR/IFR underneath any precipitation as it
moves through the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...TT