807
FXUS63 KFGF 240825
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for strong to severe storms returns to the area at the
  end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...Synopsis...

High pressure will be over Fargo at 12z this morning. Skies are
clear. Will watch for some patchy ground fog formation as winds
are calm and temps/dew pts are within 2 degrees. Winds will be
turn south 5-15 kts thru the day and temps will be a bit warmer
with highs into the 70s. Late afternoon and evening a surface
trough moving east from Saskatchewan early this morning will be
located in eastern and southeast Manitoba late this afternoon.
Sfc CAPE of 700-900 j/kg will be near this front and sufficient
mid level shear for a few t-storms in eastern Manitoba east of
Lake Winnipeg into parts of NW Ontario. The far south and
southwest extension of this trough may generate isold
shower/t-storms into areas along the ND/MB border late this
aftn/eve.

In addition though will watch deeper moisture from western
Mexico north into Kasnas and then into Iowa and southern MN and
Wisconsin around the 500 mb ridge over Virginia. Most of this
deeper moisture stays to our south with higher rainfall amounts
aiming for southeast SD into southern half of MN. How much
moisture for rainfall gets into our area is more uncertain, with
higher pops in the far south/southeast Wednesday into Thursday
with WPC QPF in the 0.20 to 0.40 inch range south of Park
Rapids-Fargo- Lisbon line. Few hundredths farther north for Wed-
Thu.

...Friday and Saturday Severe Chances...


As this system moves out, south winds 5-15 kts will develop and
temps will warm from the 70s back into the 80s. How much low
level moisture returning northward is in question with GFS most
agressive with dew pts into the mid 60s Friday and low-mid 70s
Saturday. This is considerably more aggressive than ECMWF/GEM
which keeps the 70+ dew pts more in southern half of MN and
eastern SD. Sfc CAPES over 2000 are likely to develop Friday
aftn into central ND and then farther east into the RRV and MN
Saturday aftn. Ensmebles indicate 0-6km bulk shear and Sfc CAPES
over 2000 with a 70 pct probability of occurrence from GFS in
central ND 00z Fri and then over the southern RRV Saturday. So
there is instability present. There is a weak surface trough and
upper level disturbance moving from the Pacific into southern
Saskatchewan Thursday late and into western Manitoba Friday with
a surface trough in central ND and then farther east into
eastern Manitoba and NW Ontario Saturday with sfc trough from
north central MN into southeast SD. Net result appears to be
enough mid level shear, 500 mb jet of 50 kts along the border,
and sufficient instability for scattered severe t-storms Friday
late aftn/eve and then Saturday aftn. Potential exists for
t-storm complex forming Friday evening and moving ESE Friday
night thru the area aided by 35 kt 850 mb jet. This may play
havoc with any new t-storm development Saturday. The 850 mb jet
and warm advection is much less than the prev well known severe
outbreak.

Machine learning tools indicate potential for severe storms
Fri-Sat period as well, Focus for our area seems more tied to
Friday late and Friday night vs Saturday a bit more our south
and southeast forecast area and thru southern MN.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the TAF period with the
exception of potential fog between 09-12z. It seems increasingly
probable that fog will develop somewhere, but impacts to TAF
sites are very uncertain. With the potential fog, expect
generally light and variable winds for the most part, with
increasingly southerly to southwesterly winds tomorrow
afternoon, mainly in eastern North Dakota. Cumulus will develop
tomorrow afternoon but will have ceilings well in VFR between
050 and 100. This will diminish with winds after sunset once
again.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Perroux