641
FXUS63 KFGF 221723
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1123 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow in the forecast for Saturday into Monday, mainly along
  the international border. Probability for 1" accumulations or
  higher are 40 - 50% in this area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...Synopsis...

Over eastern ND and MN this morning, stratus is back-building to the
west, just now making it over Grand Forks. There is some fog in
areas of NW MN, but it is patchy at best. Snow on the ground is
keeping temperatures cooler, in addition to the cooler air mass. A
trough is expected to pass to our north on the weekend, followed by
NW flow aloft over the state of North Dakota for the remainder of
the period. With NW flow aloft, the pattern becomes more unsettled,
with several shortwaves and light precipitation in the forecast as
you move into mid next week. The weekend system will usher in more
colder air, putting our highs next work week in the teens and 20s,
and lows in the low teens to single digits.

...Weekend Snow...

As for the weekend system, guidance has greatly shifted in the
opposite direction since yesterday morning. The consensus on the
track location currently is north of the international border.
There`s a new trend in guidance where some members are digging the
trough in as it passes, causing a higher snow swath to shift into MN
along the international border. Greatest area for snow looks now to
be along the international border, now including the bordering
counties in Minnesota, and could retreat into Manitoba if the
current trend keeps on. Probabilities for 1" of accumulation or more
are 40 - 50% along the international border; a stark northerly
shift. Areas along and north of HWY 2 now are looking at 30% chance
for 1 inch or more of accumulation. Deterministic amounts suggest
around 1 - 2 inches along the international border and a mere
dusting for areas in between I-94 and the international border.
Uncertainty still remains on quite a few aspects of this system, so
hard to say what impacts could be seen in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

IFR to LIFR in MN taf sites through next couple hours with
improvement to MVFR/VFR tonight. VFR for ND sites through the
period with IFR expanding again in the form of low stratus over
MN taf sites for the overnight into morning hours Saturday with
a current forecast for BJI to stay IFR through 12z. Winds
variable and hold low confidence on direction but struggle to
crest 10kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...TT