319
FXUS63 KFGF 250900
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
300 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Will have to monitor the potential for lake effect snow
  downwind of Devils Lake, Lake of the Woods, and the Upper and
  Lower Red Lakes with the mid to late week cold snap (even this
  morning at Devils Lake)

- An inch or less of snow may result in slippery conditions for
  the Wednesday morning commute, especially from the Devils Lake
  region down into southeast North Dakota

- The first subzero wind chills of the season are still on tap
  for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...Synopsis...

The early morning water vapor imagery shows the upstream 500mb
low over southeast Saskatchewan very well. This is expected to
continue dropping east-southeast toward the Great Lakes by early
Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the snow that formed along and east
of the RRV last evening will shift off to the east pretty
quickly this morning. Decreasing clouds in the wake of this
system (and the cold air pushing in) have been showing streamer
clouds downwind of the Lake Sakakawea and Devils Lake. Not out
of the realm of possibilities that some flurries or very light
snow are falling under these streamer clouds. Another weak
shortwave rotates into the FA Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, which will bring the next shot of light snow. After
that, the main story turns to the colder temperatures expected
for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

...Lake effect potential...

Streamer clouds are already evident in the cold air and clearing
downwind of Lake Sakakawea and Devils Lake this morning. Not
able to determine if anything is falling under these clouds this
morning, as webcams and surface observations are few and far
between in that area. However, will go ahead and add in a
chance of light snow around Devils Lake to account for this.
Impacts look to be fairly localized, but could affect a few
roads around the lake that are well traveled. Since our larger
lakes are not frozen yet, will have to keep an eye out for the
lake effect potential from today through the upcoming holiday
weekend cold snap.

...Wednesday morning commute...

The next shortwave dropping into the Northern Plains in the
northwest flow looks to arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, and mainly from the Devils Lake region down into
southeast North Dakota (including the Fargo-Moorhead area). This
looks to spread a dusting upward to an inch of snow to these
areas, just in time for the Wednesday morning rush. The NBM
shows a fairly high probability (60%) for snowfall amounts over
0.1 inches, but much lower (10%) for amounts over 1 inch.
However, this wave has only been showing up in the models for
about a day now. As this has been showing up more consistently
now, would think the probabilities would slightly increase over
the next 24 hours. Wind speeds look to be pretty light for the
Wednesday morning rush period, so that would not compound the
impacts. These lighter snow events can result in slippery
conditions, sometimes more so than the heavier ones. Think the
biggest impact would be during the Wednesday morning rush
period.

...Subzero wind chills...

It continues to look cold for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
That entire period will also feature steady northwest winds, so
there will be subzero wind chills at times. The FA has not
experienced a cold snap yet, and with the holiday weekend, there
will be a lot of people moving around. People will have to
bundle up and make sure to put a winter survival kit in your
vehicle.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail for most TAFs. There is
some light freezing drizzle that will follow the snow on the
western edge of the Radar reflectivity. The freezing drizzle is
short lived. There is a small hole in the ceiling to the west of
the TAF sites ranging from 2000 ft to 9000 feet. Not sure if we
will have clouds develop later today or if the clouds will
dissipate and keep the skies clear. Some models have the clouds
redeveloping as this low passes through but we could also be dry
slotted and remain VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...MM