364
FXUS63 KFGF 021133
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this
  afternoon in southeastern North Dakota.

- Critical fire weather conditions could develop in northeastern
  North Dakota Sunday afternoon, and a Fire Weather Watch is in
  effect. Near critical conditions in southeastern North Dakota.

- Rain chances increasing Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...Synopsis...

North to northwest flow continues through the forecast period, with
several shortwaves traversing the flow into the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. Rain chances will be minimal through Sunday, with
only a scattered shower or two possible in response to a very weak
shortwave. Temperatures gradually warm today through Sunday,
bringing afternoon highs into the 60s for most areas this weekend. A
slightly stronger shortwave and upper low will move across
northeastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota heading into
Monday; however, the latest ensemble trends continue to show better
rain chances retreating further northward. At this time, there is a
50 percent chance for 0.10" of rain along the International Border
near Lake of the Woods, with lower chances further south and west.

...Fire Weather Concerns...

Minimum RH values will hover in the 25-35 percent range today
through Sunday. Warmer temperatures return for the the weekend as
afternoon highs climb into the 60s across eastern North Dakota and
west central and northwest Minnesota. Winds are expected to remain
generally light today and Saturday, with an increase in winds for
Sunday. These slightly higher winds will bring a chance for near
critical fire weather Sunday afternoon and evening. A cold front
brings rain chances back into the area on Monday, mainly for
northwest Minnesota and parts of the northern Red River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions with increasing mid and high clouds today. A few
isolated showers this afternoon, but very little expected to
reach the ground so will leave out of the TAFs for now. Winds
that are south southwesterly at 10 to 15 kts this morning will
pick up and gust up to 25 kts at times this afternoon, becoming
more southwesterly and then westerly as the day goes on. A weak
frontal boundary will shift winds to the northwest late this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR