562
FXUS63 KFGF 012155
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional periods of light snow and wintry mix this weekend
  may bring sub-adivsory level impacts to travel conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow aloft will continue over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest today and Saturday. A stall frontal zone exists
within western ND into central SD, with our area on the colder
side of the temperature gradient, keeping temperatures slightly
below average.

This changes into Sunday as upper ridging currently in the West
builds eastward into the central CONUS and CAN, including over
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will promote warming
trend in temperatures, pushing them near average to slightly
above average. This also trends temperatures back toward the
freezing mark early to mid next week. The upper ridge continues
to propagate eastward into next week, allowing flow aloft to
become more zonal through next Thursday.

Between this weekend into the middle of next week, ensemble
guidance strongly depicts the opportunity for several low
amplitude shortwave troughs to move through the flow aloft. Each
shortwave trough will bring its own chance for relatively light
and transient precipitation. Each of these may bring their own
periods of sub-advisory to advisory level impacts. With flow
becoming more zonal and milder temperatures encroaching upon the
area, additional chances for wintry mix leading to light icing
is also in the forecast. This includes some deterministic
guidance depicting perhaps an extended period of freezing
drizzle staring around Sunday lasting into mid week, introducing
potential for travel impacts from light icing. This however is
a low confidence scenario given lowered predictability in mid to
upper clouds aloft within this timeframe (e.g. more clouds
aloft would mitigate chance for freezing drizzle in lieu of
light snow). At this time, there are no robust waves bringing
significant precipitation to the region through next Thursday.
There is also no signal for significant wind within this period
as well, keeping chance for impactful blowing snow very low.

Beyond Thursday into the following weekend, ensembles favor upper
troughing to deepen within the Intermountain West, placing the
central/north-central CONUS in its exit region/southwest flow
aloft. This may allow a more organized system to develop within
the Plains and Midwest, increasing chance for widespread
precipitation. This may bring winter impacts to the region,
including our own. However, this timeframe is nearing the
predictability horizon, lowering confidence in synoptic
evolution and even more so on potential impacts.

...Light snow and wintry mix this weekend...

A weak, very low amplitude shortwave trough aloft will traverse
the area late Friday into Saturday. This will bring light snow,
with generally the entire area holding equal chances at seeing
snow. Given the very weak forcing for ascent/precipitation
production as well as meager moisture content, QPF amounts are
very light. However, most ensemble and deterministic guidance
depicts moderately deep to very deep saturation within the
dendritic growth zone as forcing aloft passes through. This
would favor high snow to liquid ratios greater than 15:1,
turning very light QPF amounts less than 0.03 inches into
0.5-2.0 inches of snow by end of the day Saturday.

This particular wave holds an 40% chance for sub-advisory
impacts, mainly in the form of light snow accumulation up to 2
inches.

The next shortwave trough to traverse the region comes Sunday.
This wave is a little more amplified and relatively stronger
than Saturday`s shortwave trough. This would allow more
potential for higher QPF into the 0.2-0.4 inch range. However,
as warmer temperatures aloft accompany this shortwave, snow to
liquid ratios are very low, perhaps less than 10:1. This still
may allow snow to range in the 2 to 4 inch range.

Additionally, most ensemble guidance doesn`t strengthen this
wave until it reaches the Upper Midwest, currently keeping the
chance for accumulating snow largely confined toward central MN
and points east. Should this wave deepen quicker than what most
ensemble guidance depicts, the chance for accumulating snow
between 2 to 4 inches spreads deeper into our area.
Additionally, guidance also brings potential for light freezing
rain/drizzle with this wave. This may drive its own set of
potential impacts through light icing.

This particular wave holds a 60% chance for sub-advisory level
impacts, as well as 20% chance for advisory level impacts,
driven by the chance to see accumulating snow up to 4 inches
and/or light glaze of ice.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Main impact to aviation through 18Z Friday are from lowered
ceilings.

Within eastern North Dakota, IFR to MVFR range will remain in
place through at least 23Z. It is possible these lowered
ceilings could linger beyond 23Z. Confidence is not very high in
the cloud forecast beyond 00Z. There is another possibility of
fog/very low stratus developing across northeast ND into
northwest and west-central MN between 03Z-15Z, potentially
resulting in fog at some sites as well. Confidence is not high
enough to include this in TAFs, however.

Light snow/flurries will continue until around 00Z, possibly
lingering in eastern ND and/or west-central MN through 12Z. It
is also possible intermittent freezing drizzle will occur within
eastern ND, west of the Red River Valley. This includes KDVL.

Winds will be overall light, under 10kt.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ