789
FXUS63 KFGF 261923
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
223 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory for much of eastern North Dakota and west
  central Minnesota today.

- Extreme Heat Warning for the central and southern Red River
  Valley today.

- There is a threat for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  across northwest Minnesota today with a primary threat for
  hail up to a golf ball in size.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...Synopsis...

Expansive ridging remains dominate over the western/central
CONUS this Sunday afternoon. Our region is under its
northeastern most influence. Over the top of the ridge, a ridge
riding wave is passing to our north and east. This brings a
highly conditional threat for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over portions of northwestern MN.
Persistent heat will continue into this week as ridging
remains present in some form.

...Heat Continues...

Today is another hot day. Temperatures have climbed into the
mid/upper 90s in the central and southern Red River Valley, and are
not far behind across much of the rest of the FA. Heat
headlines are in effect this afternoon, with the hottest
conditions expected in the central/southern Red River Valley.
As we go through the work week, ridging will remain in control
over the western/central US, although there are some
disagreements in its magnitude and exactly how far eastward its
axis sets up. Therefore, temperatures will remain above average,
with afternoon highs in the 90s across much of the FA until at
least midweek. Thereafter, depending on the ridges
amplitude/placement, temperatures will either slightly cool into
the 80s, or remain elevated into the 90s. It is during this
late week period NBM temperature spreads start to increase,
showcasing well ensemble model disagreement surrounding the
ridge.

...Severe Storms Today...

A persistent WAA regime has been in place over northwestern MN this
morning, allowing for storms to develop earlier today. However,
low level flow has been weakening into the early afternoon.
There is indication within some model guidance that flow will
increase slightly again later today during the evening hours as
a shortwave rounds the ridge. This may be enough forcing to get
a storm or two to develop. If a storm can form, effective shear
of over 40 knots and ample instability will help organize
storms, with supercells capable of severe hail being the primary
threat. It will be very difficult to get a storm to form
further south in west central MN, as this area is far from any
forcing and fighting a stout cap.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR throughout the TAF period. There are questions as to if
thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon in MN. If storms
do, they would primarily impact KBJI. Therefore, left the PROB30
mention in the TAF at KBJI at this time, although predictability
is low. Winds will shift to the northwest behind a passing front
late today into tonight. Winds will follow a diurnal trend, but
weak flow means there will not be much wind to mix to the
surface. Therefore, winds of 10 knots or a little higher are
forecasted this afternoon (no gusts), decreasing to 5 knots or
so overnight, then increasing again Monday morning up to about
10 knots (similar to today).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-024-
     026>029-038-049-052.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ030-
     039-053.
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-
     007>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-
     003-029-030-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty