894
FXUS63 KFGF 022330
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
530 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures with areas of fog are expected this
  week.

- There is a 20% chance for advisory impacts from a wintry mix Thursday
  night into Friday.

- A more active pattern may continue into next week bringing
  additional opportunities for winter impacts over parts of the
  region. Predictability in impacts remains very low beyond
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...Synopsis...

Temperatures will widely vary this week as a combination of the
upper level pattern and surface snowpack work in tandem to bring a
variety of values from location to location on any given day,
and day to day at any given point. Riding a baroclinic zone in
zonal/split flow for much of the week, temperatures will hinge
on which side of the gradient one resides. Luckily through
Thursday, very few waves of importance look to track though,
which should keep weather conditions fairly quiet. Upper level
flow turns southwesterly late in the week. This will bring our
next real shot at any impactful weather. The overall synoptic
pattern becomes much less predictable by the weekend, with
ensembles poorly handling how an area of low pressure may (or
may not) become cut off over the southwestern US. One takeaway
is that we appear to become more active - the problem is that
there are very few details that can be added beyond that with
such little run to run model consistency.

...Warm with Patchy Fog this Week...

Southerly surface flow over much of the Northern Plains is advecting
warmer air, along with higher dew points north. This has led to
temperatures in the 30s nearly area wide this afternoon. Further
melting of snow will lead to additional moisture being added to the
boundary layer. As colder air advects in from the north tonight, the
colder air over the relatively warmer snowpack should lead to patches
of fog. Riding the baroclinic zone through Thursday or so in
zonal flow, temperatures will vary widely. For example, being
More so on the colder side of the gradient Tuesday, temperatures
will struggle to reach freezing over the northern half of the
FA, while still nearly flirt with 50 in the far south. Southerly
flow returns on Wednesday, which is when the warmest
temperatures of the week look to occur. Values near 60 are
forecasted in the south. Meanwhile along the International
Border, temperatures will hold the line at about freezing.
Conceptually, this pattern should also lead to fog nearly every
night, varying in location depending on the exact placement of
colder air, how far north southerly surface flow resides, where
snowpack exists etc.

...Wintry Mix Thursday Night into Friday...

Troughing over the western US by late week sets the stage for
more active weather in the Northern Plains Thursday night into
Friday. There remains some uncertainty however, in how the
northern and southern branches of the jet phase, which will
heavily influence what kind of sensible weather and impacts we
receive. There has been a trend in recent guidance to bring more
(albeit still light) precipitation to much of the FA,
particularly on Friday. This precip happens as the northern
stream of the jet keeps a bulk of forcing (and cooler air) to
the north. As the southern piece lifts north, WAA and
frontogensis drives an area of rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow.
Where this sets up - extremely hard to say this far out. Wave
interactions such as this carry a shorter predictability
horizon. However, this will be something to watch through the
week. Right now, the chance for advisory level impacts driven by
freezing rain is about 20%.

...Additional Systems in the Late Forecast Period...

As we remain in a general trough west, ridging east pattern for
early next week, additional waves and precipitation are likely.
However, day to day this evolution remains highly uncertain,
with the timing and strength of waves driving what will occur.
To give context about how uncertain the day to day pattern is,
NBM 25th to 75th temperature spreads are upwards of 20 degrees
in spots Sunday into Tuesday of next week. Without any model to
model or run to run consistency, its hard to determine what
sensible weather will do day to day. Check back in the coming
days for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail this evening at all TAF sites. Look for
an increased chance for fog tonight as a weak cold front
gradually drifts southward into the area. Highest chances will
be at KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI; however, KFAR and KDVL could still
see fog briefly during the late overnight hours. IFR to LIFR
visibility is expected where fog is able to form. At this time,
guidance suggests that the temporal impacts will be somewhat
short, with fog chances diminishing around or just after
sunrise. Winds will diminish this evening before going light
and variable through the overnight hours and into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Lynch