148
FXUS63 KFGF 241922
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
222 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers today with a less than a 20 percent chance
  for lightning.

- Gradual warming trend through the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...Synopsis...

A somewhat atypical spring pattern will bring predominately
ridging to the western and central CONUS over the coming week with a
short interruption mid week as an upper low swings through the
northern plains and midwest Tuesday-Thursday. This could bring a
focused area of more robust shower/weak thunderstorm activity but
not leaning towards severe potential. Overall as westerly flow aloft
heats the mid levels surface heating potential will gradually
increase through next weekend with high climbing from the upper 60s
and low 70s of today to the upper 70s and low 80s by next Saturday.

- Showers Today

Weak low level flow beneath sfc ridging with a mid level vort max to
the northeast centered near Thunder Bay is yielding steep low level
lapse rates on the order of 9.5 to 10.0C/km via SPC mesoanalysis.
Overall this is still only enough for about 100-200j/kg of SBCAPE
and the eff shear of 20kts is just enough to support the ongoing
single cell convection out in the forested areas of NW Minnesota.
These showers will continue through the afternoon with high LCL`s
and ample dry air in the BL leading to mostly virga but any stronger
cells that yield some observable rain may be capable of wind gusts
to 35mph, small hail (0.25") and infrequent lightning (20% chance).
Similar shower type activity may once again be expected Sunday
afternoon.

As an upper low moves over the area Tuesday/Wednesday our seemingly
traditional funnel risk seems plausible once again, though even the
strongest ensemble members are broad enough with the mid/upper low
evolution that this threat remains conditional and minimized at this
time. Overall rain amounts remain rather unimpressive with only a
20% chance for more that a tenth to fall, perhaps enough to settle
some dust for a few hours.

As the upper low then moves east of the area in the later half of
the week, ridging becomes dominant for the foreseeable future with
temps reaching the 80s in the northern Red River Valley as early as
Thursday. No discernible heat impacts would be expected considering
dewpoints of 50F or less so we can all look forward to a very nice
stretch of late May weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR through the taf period with SCT to BKN cumulus near 5-7kft
and weak shower activity in the east in forested areas like BJI
through this afternoon. Mostly light and variable this afternoon
will persist into the evening and through the remainder of the
period. No other impacts to aviation expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT