476
FXUS63 KFGF 071914
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
214 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming through the week with low end fire weather concerns creeping
  up for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...Synopsis...

Current Ridging across the high plains will give way to more zonal
flow across the northern CONUS By late Tuesday into Wednesday as a
short wave cuts east out the PNW. The Low then digs into the
southeast US where it stalls and begins to create an Omega block as
thermal ridging builds across the lee of the Rockies through the
late week into the weekend. As the low level pressure gradients
shifts more overhead in combination with warming temps later in the
week some low end fire weather concerns may bear closer monitoring.

- Light Rain

A weak wave tracking east amid a 50kt 500mb jet streak with subtle
850and 925mb WAA along with more noted theta-e advection to provide
forcing for rain with PWAT`s around 0.60-0.70" or possibly a bit of
a rain snow mix along the intl border where temp profiles are a tad
cooler. Would anticipate this to be more of a banded precipitation
event rather that a broad synoptically forced precipitation shield.
Overall around a 20% chance for 0.10" of QPF and thus a low impact
event to most decision makers. periodic chances for precip (namely
rain with warming temps) continue through the period but no defined
features at this time to increase confidence towards the the chances
for any given day.

- Warming up

Behind the Tuesday night/Wednesday precip chances ridging slowly
builds through the remainder of the week with highs slowly climbing
from the mid to upper 40 for Tuesday to low to mid 50s Wednesday and
Thursday then mid 50s to mid 60s for Friday through Friday through
the weekend. Resulting daily minimum relative humidities will fall
from the 50s to 60s Wed/Thur to the upper 30s to upper 40s across
the region Friday through Sunday. This in combination with the
nearing and strengthening pressure gradient may lead to RH in the
30s overlapping with wind gusts in excess of 20-30 mph during the
weekend period which likely falling into more concerning territory
than typically favorable burning conditions with slightly lighter
winds. At this point not near any messaging worthy thresholds but
worth raising attention for anyone planning any large or multi day
burns. HDWI does align with these general thoughts for Sat/Sun for a
nice reassurance check from the fire wx climatology standpoint.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR skies this afternoon with light and occasionally variable
winds. Some scattered CU is likley this afternoon but coverage
is still in question with dry mid level air to prevent a BKN
deck from forming and thus left GFK and FAR at SCT035 for
awareness purposes even though its not a direct hazard. Winds
becoming southerly for Tuesday morning with winds nearing 10kts
by 14Z at all sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT