167
FXUS63 KFGF 171150
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke continues to affect air quality.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Overnight thunderstorm activity has pushed mostly east of the
FA. Smoke is also returning to the region, overspreading areas
generally along and north of Highway 2 behind a cold front.
Visibility should improve mid to late morning as daytime mixing
increases. All other portions of the forecast remain on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...Synopsis...

The upper level ridging has flattened/weakened a bit, but
additional upper waves are rounding the upper ridge. Ensemble
guidance agrees that through the weekend and into early next
week the upper ridge axis will be west of the region and then
flatten early next week as a stronger system propagates through
Canada, bringing cooler temperatures to the northern plains.
There does not appear to be any stronger synoptic signals for
rainfall/storms given the anticipated pattern, although
mesoscale forcing could provide scattered storms here or there.

...Severe Risk This Evening...

Interesting set up is developing for severe potential this
evening, with what appears to be a triple point across
northcentral North Dakota. MLCAPE near 3000 J/KG and effective
bulk shear 30-35 knots will lead to organized storms. Storm
mode expected to be discrete given lack of strong synoptic
forcing and limited threat area. CAM guidance indicates
convective initiation 5-7p. Initial development will likely be
supercellular along with all associated supercell hazards
(hail, wind gusts, tornado). Regarding tornado potential, the
triple point plus any storm that anchors to the warm front
should experience increased SRH favorable for tornado
development. Uncertainty increases with how the event will
evolve after initial development, although in these situations
storm tipsily attempt to work into the stronger instability
meaning the threat area for the surfaced based severe potential
will remain across northeast North Dakota - and be mainly
diurnally driven with weakening toward 11p or so. The 1 of 5
risk from SPC is based on anticipated coverage.

Later into the night, an area of strong synoptic forming/warm
air advection will bring an elevated severe hail threat to
northwest Minnesota (likely after midnight).

...Heat Impacts...

Frontal boundary has set up from west to east across the region,
with temperatures low-mid 70s to the north of the boundary and
low 90s to the south of the boundary. With dew points around 70F
south of the boundary, heat impacts will continue into the
evening. After today, temperatures will be a bit cooler
(although limited heat impacts will remain for sensitive
groups).

...Air Quality...

As winds become southerly and then westerly overnight, smoke
should move out of the area. That said, forecasting where
wildfire smoke will go is pretty difficult, and as the flow
turns from the north tomorrow, smoke could return, although not
sure how impactful it would be if it does.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Smoke and IFR ceilings are the main concerns during the TAF
period. KGFK has seen a rapid reduction in visibility over the
past hour, now reporting into the IFR range. Smoke should
decrease during the later morning hours, which will allow
visibilities to improve. Meanwhile, patches of IFR/MVFR
ceilings are also roaming around northeastern ND and
northwestern MN. There should be a decrease in areal coverage of
IFR/MVFR throughout the morning. Afternoon cumulus development
will be in the low end VFR category.

Outside of visibility and ceiling impacts, winds do not look to
cause any issues. A front passing through is bringing a wind
shift from the south to the northwest. Winds behind the front
will gust to around 20 knots this afternoon, before dropping off
quickly after sunset this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Rafferty