056
FXUS63 KFGF 221134
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
634 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog will continue in portions of northwest and
  west-central Minnesota before 8 AM this morning.

- Windy conditions develop this afternoon. Highest winds of 30
  mph gusting to 40 mph will reside in portions of eastern North
  Dakota into northwest Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...Synopsis...

Expansive upper low can be seen over central Canada early this
morning on water vapor satellite imagery. Southern flanks of
this low has overspread the Dakotas into MN. At the surface,
the first of many cold fronts is working its way through eastern
ND into northern MN. Ahead of the front, patchy dense fog is
being observed in portions of northwest and west- central MN
(more on this below). Some lingering showers and non- severe
thunderstorms are occurring near the SD/ND border trekking
eastward with the mean flow. With lingering instability and
moisture in southeast ND into west-central MN, this activity
should continue eastward moving through the tri- state area of
SD/ND/MN this morning. Severe weather is not anticipated with
this activity given the waning instability.

Upstream into SK, another cold front under the southwest flanks
of the upper low houses cold air advection. Low stratus can also
be seen within this regime, along with observations of rain
showers. This can be extrapolated southeastward lending
credence in some CAM guidance`s illustration of scattered
showers near the international border this afternoon, spreading
deeper into northern Minnesota Friday night into Saturday. Some
weak instability near the top of the boundary layer amid
sufficiently deep saturation amid cold air advection further
lends confidence in this scenario.

As the reinforcing cold front sweeps through the region, windy
conditions are forecast to develop. This includes advisory-
criteria winds for portions of eastern ND into northwest MN
(more on this below).

Ensemble guidance continues to strongly suggest the upper low
slowly migrates eastward through southern Canada, bringing only
to eastern ON by Tuesday. This will continue to feed moisture-
whisking continental air mass intrusions from interior Canada
over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, supporting below
average temperatures, along with breezy and dry conditions
through at least Monday.

Ensemble guidance then starts to suggest this low looses its
influence over our region by mid week, with upper ridging over
the Interior West and weak northwesterly flow aloft over the
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This would support return to
average temperatures, to perhaps slightly above average. With
much of the low level moisture whisked well away from the
region, dry conditions will continue to be supported until
a multi-day period of return flow can return moisture back
north. It isn`t until may late next week where this scenario may
occur.


...Fog this morning...

Several observation stations and webcams show dense fog is
dancing around within portions of northwest and west-central MN,
particularly within hilly lakes country. This will continue to
be the case until a cold front currently working its way through
the area will shift winds out of the northwest introducing drier
air. By 8 AM, the cold front should have worked its way through,
ceasing potential for dense fog.

...Windy conditions this afternoon...

Efficient mixing of winds aloft is expected today with daytime
mixing phasing well with cold air advection moving through the
region behind the reinforcing cold front. While gusts may not be
overly strong (more on the order of 30-40 mph), sustained winds
around 30 mph are forecast in portions of eastern ND (mainly
north of I-94) into portions of northwest Minnesota like the Red
River Valley. Given northwesterly flow, there may be a "Valley-
skip" tendency for portions of the northern Red River Valley
where winds are less, particularly along the western edge of the
Valley.

Given trees still fully-leafed, and some tree branches weakened
from several severe wind events this summer, one can anticipate
some small tree branches being downed this afternoon, leading to
minor wind impacts in areas highlighted by the Wind Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Impacts to aviation through 12Z Saturday include windy
conditions exceeding 25kt and potential for MVFR to IFR ceilings
tonight.

Reinforcing cold front moves through today bringing elevated
westerly winds in the 20-26kt range, gusting 25-32kt. Highest
winds are forecast between 18Z-01Z, as well as within portions
of eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota.

Lowering ceilings into the MVFR and IFR range are forecast into
portions of northwest and west-central Minnesota tonight after
08Z. KBJI holds greatest chance (60%) of seeing these conditions.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ