293
FXUS63 KFGF 172330
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances return tonight into Friday, however
  the next threat for strong to severe storms is not expected
  until late Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Scattered to broken cumulus continues for the next couple of
hours. Watching the complex of storms out in MT as they work
their way through western ND overnight. Still looking at the
chance for showers and storms overnight and into tomorrow
afternoon, with the best chances along the Highway 200 corridor.
Otherwise, temperatures overnight drop into the 50s with a few
areas near the Turtle Mountains reaching the upper 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...Synopsis...

Broad troughing over southern Canada and the northern CONUS,
with various weak shortwaves coming through the base of it. One
such shortwave will move through the Northern Plains later
tonight, then off into MN Friday. Weak upper ridging starts
over the Western Plains Friday night and into Saturday. The
ridge moves east on Sunday, with flow becoming more
west-southwesterly into the early part of the work week. Pattern
seems a bit more active with various shortwaves moving through
the west to southwesterly flow, although exact timing of such
minor shortwaves is impossible to tell at this point.

...Shower/thunderstorm chances tonight and possible severe
impacts late Sunday into Tuesday...

Fair decent shortwave coming through tonight into tomorrow
morning, but very little instability to work with as it comes
through. Some of the models have some 100-500 J/kg of elevated
CAPE during the morning hours, so lightning will be possible but
severe chances look low. By the time there is enough
destabilization over southeastern ND into west central MN, the
main shortwave will be off to the east and our counties in the
area of subsidence. HREF has very little in the way of updraft
helicity tracks for the tonight into Friday period. Better
chances for severe late in the weekend into early next week as
flow turns more southwesterly. The NBM has probability of over
2000 J/kg surface based CAPE up around 70 percent in portions of
southeastern ND, and there should be around 30-40 kts of shear.
The main question will be forcing and timing of various weak
shortwaves that could set thunderstorms off. With predictability
low, will hold off on any messaging for now for severe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

SCT to BKN cumulus continues for the next couple of hours before
dissipating as the sun sets. VFR ceilings prevail underneath
these clouds. BKN to OVC clouds will start to shift in from the
west overnight around the 07-08z timeframe. Showers and
potential for thunderstorms 08-20z. Likelihood of thunderstorms
will be concentrated around FAR, GFK, TVF, and BJI with DVL
remaining on the northern fringe of the thunderstorm chances.
Ceilings will go MVFR as the showers and thunderstorms move
through with IFR at times. Near the end of the TAF period
showers and storms work their way eastward out of the area, with
VFR conditions entering DVL first.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Spender