715
FXUS63 KFGF 130434
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1034 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather is expected through the end of this week.
  Continued above average temperatures through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

No changes were made to the forecast.

Recent call into the office yielded a report of some shallow fog
trying to develop in lakes country of west-central MN. This
would lend some credence to the possibility of fog tonight into
early Thursday morning. Still thinking relatively best chances
for fog will be within the Red River Valley into northwest MN
and Devils Lake basin.

High cirrus clouds are attempting to slowly migrate eastward
toward our area out of central Dakotas and SK. Still thinking
this will act in a transient fashion as they are embedded within
the subsident region of upper ridging.

UPDATE
Issued at 638 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Calm and mostly clear conditions currently exist over the area
as surface high pressure settles in. Some high level cirrus is
present across the region, and will linger in a transient
fashion throughout the night, perhaps increasing some in
coverage. This should make for good aurora viewing conditions,
albeit, chilly as temperatures dip below freezing.

Calm and mostly clear conditions may promote development of
shallow, patchy fog, particularly within the Red River Valley
into northwest MN and Devils Lake basin. Moisture is generally
lacking, and will require a temperature to decrease into the mid
20s. At this time, chance for dense fog is low, less than 20%.
Chance for fog will reside between 5am to 9am.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...Synopsis...

A clear, warm afternoon across the FA. Satellite shows only a few
clouds. Cloud cover is increasing however over the western half
of the Dakotas. These cirrus clouds are in an intensifying WAA
regime, advancing towards our FA. In turn, these cirrus clouds
will overspread the FA from west to east overnight.

The upper level ridge axis propagates through Thursday into Friday,
leading to very warm temperatures. 850 mb temperatures are in
the 90th to 99th percentiles Friday afternoon across much of
the Northern Plains. Friday looks to be the warmest day, when
widespread mid 50s to mid 60s are forecasted. This is still
a few degrees short of records (Example: Fargo`s record high on
11/14 is 66 degrees, while the current forecast is 60 degrees),
but well above the average values near or slightly below 40
degrees. The warmest temperatures will be found in southeastern
North Dakota northward into the Red River Valley.

Model guidance has sped up the timing of the cold frontal passage
this weekend, while simultaneously reducing precipitation chances.
Nevertheless, a few showers associated with the frontal forcing are
possible Friday night into Saturday, before a more seasonal airmass
propagates into the Upper Midwest. A brief return to ridging to end
the weekend and to start the following work gives way to a more
active pattern about a week from now. This switch to an active
pattern has been more and more delayed with each model cycle.
However, troughiness over the western US is still expected to
lead to southwesterly flow over the Northern Plains at the tail
end of the forecast period. Ensembles show many different
potential scenarios at this time, leading to very low
predictability in how even the synoptic pattern that will
influence any system(s) pans out. Therefore, a smattering of low
PoPs are still in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday, but
expect changes to the going forecast as we approach in time and
predictability increases.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

No impacts are forecast to aviation through 00Z Thursday.

VFR conditions amid surface high pressure and scattered high
level cirrus clouds are forecast. Winds will be light, less
than 7kt until increasing toward 10kt out of the south after 16Z
Thursday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...CJ