043
FXUS63 KFGF 281153
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
653 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with heat
  impacts possible on Wendesday.

- Isolated severe storms possible Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 431 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Ground fog which initially formed in the Devils Lake basin has
expanded and fog layer lifted so that we are seeing more
widespread dense fog over the northern Red River valley and thru
the Devils Lake, Cando areas to New Rockford. Patchy fog may
develop in other locations into Minnesota as well as we approach
sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging continues over the Rockies and Plains, with some
weak embedded shortwaves coming over top of the ridge today and
tomorrow. The higher heights will push further north on
Wednesday, ahead of a stronger shortwave coming over top of the
ridge on Thursday. After a brief period of northwesterly flow,
upper ridging builds back into the region for the weekend. Many
of the ensemble members have a stronger trough starting to track
along the international border on Monday, bringing us
southwesterly flow aloft. However, a cluster of around 35
percent of the long range ensemble members keep the 588dm meter
nosing up into ND and the troughing much less impressive. At
this point, a more active pattern and cooler temperatures look
like they will at least hold off until next week.

...Heat wave continuing and rain chances mid-week...

One of the weak embedded shortwaves coming over the top of the
ridge has started to produce some showers and thunderstorms in
or near north central ND. SPC meso page has decent 1000 to 1500
J/kg of ML CAPE and shear around 40 kts, but with very weak
forcing, and extremely warm mid-level temps, the cells that are
developing are struggling. CAMs have that trend continuing with
the next weak shortwave arriving later this evening, and this
seems reasonable. Our northwestern counties could see a few
sprinkles this afternoon and evening, but substantial
precipitation will hold off until Wednesday/Thursday as NBM
probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of rain finally
rise above 50 percent. ECMWF EFI continues to show a signal for
heat continuing through the weekend, and NBM probabilities for
temperatures over 95 degrees are over 70 percent for Wednesday.
Likely will need heat headlines of some sort again Wednesday so
will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Patchy fog to start the day with the Devils Lake area seeing the
most impacts. Light winds may keep the fog from burning off as
fast as it would normally, but also though got some sun above
it. So the progression of visibility improvement at KDVL airport
is approximate with dense fog thru 14z then improving
conditions. Rest of the TAF sites seeing pretty good start with
some lower vsbys in haze or light fog but that will be short
lived. Balance of the day is VFR with scattered mid and high
clouds and upper level smoke. Light winds all day so direction
could be from just about anywhere.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026-054.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Riddle