098
FXUS63 KFGF 172350
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
650 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunder across the region into the
  evening hours.

- There is a low chance for strong thunderstorms across the
  region Thursday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed in the Sheyenne
River Valley producing intermittent lightning. These should
remain the primary impacts over the next several hours with on
and off rain likely for most of the area to continue. Cloudy
skies will linger through the overnight hours keeping
temperatures fairly warm. Impacts will be minor for the evening
due to lightning potential but will diminish after midnight.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper level ridging will affect the region through at least mid-
week. This will aid in warming temperatures to back a few degrees
above average by mid week. Precipitation chances will be tied to any
weak waves that can ride the ridge, a low probability. By late week,
another trough similar to last weeks looks to set up somewhere over
the Canadian Rockies, digging southward with a cold front
propagating through the region (and associated thunder
chances).


...Showers/Thunderstorms Today into Tonight...

Showers and isolated thunder will affect most of the region as a
weak upper wave and associated warm air advection propagate through
the region. Other than lightning (due to elevated instability) the
potential for other hazards appear limited given the lack of MLCAPE
(less than 500 J/KG).

...Thunderstorm Chances Thursday...

There remains model to model and run to run disagreement with the
evolution and potential severity of thunderstorms - which will be
tied to actual moisture return, timing, and orientation of any
frontal features, along with the degree of forcing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Rain showers and a few thunderstorms may impact all TAF sites
this evening, with FAR featuring the highest chances. As showers
and storms move eastward, ceilings will fall with it to IFR and
LIFR with intermittent drizzle possible as well. Stratus will
linger through the overnight hours. After sunrise, winds will
shift to northwesterly from west to east with skies clearing
from west to east. As this occurs, ceiling heights will also
rise through the day with it, so it is likely there will be a
transition from LIFR/IFR to MVFR with less cloud coverage, then
finally getting to VFR for all TAF sites by the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Perroux