953
FXUS63 KFGF 061134
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
634 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for thunderstorms exist over the holiday
  weekend, with a level 1 out of 5 chance each day. The main
  impacts for any storms that become severe will be ping pong
  ball sized hail and winds to 60 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging continues to build over the Eastern Plains, with
several weak shortwaves evident on water vapor. A couple such
shortwaves have been producing showers and storms over northwestern
MN and along the north central ND/Manitoba border.
The next more significant shortwave is still down over WY and will
move into the Northern Plains tonight into tomorrow morning. The
upper ridge will begin to shift slightly east Sunday night, leaving
the region in southwesterly flow aloft into Labor Day. A broad
trough/upper low will move through south central Canada on Tuesday,
leaving the Northern Plains in slightly northwesterly to near zonal
flow aloft through the rest of the work week and into next Saturday.

...Marginal severe chances tonight, tomorrow and Monday...

Some MU CAPE still around, but SPC mesoanalysis page has a lot of
CIN with the mixed layer CAPE. Most of the CAMs don`t have much over
eastern ND until later tonight when the shortwave over WY comes
northeast, but given recent poor performance do not have much trust
in their solutions. There will be plenty of MU CAPE again overnight,
although bulk shear will be fairly modest around 30 kts. Some
convection could be ongoing tomorrow morning, with HREF showing a
low probability of strong updraft helicity tracks in west central
MN. Another shortwave coming through could bring more thunderstorm
activity Sunday afternoon and evening, although much will depend on
how the morning activity plays out and if the atmosphere recovers.
Better shear looks to be in store for Monday, although instability
is more uncertain. At this point, can`t rule out an isolated
instance of hail up to ping pong balls or 60 mph winds through the
rest of the holiday weekend, but confidence in exactly when and
where is low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

MVFR conditions prevail at KGFK this morning, with IFR
conditions at KBJI. All other sites are VFR with mostly clear
skies and occasional scattered cloud cover. Clouds will increase
through the day, with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Left PROB30 groups for -TSRA consistent as timing
remains mostly consistent in the previous several model runs.
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible with this system.
Hazards could include large hail and damaging wind gusts.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch