Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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567 FXUS63 KFGF 092309 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 509 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Bands of light rain will continue across most of the FA tonight into early Sunday morning, but most areas will only see amounts around or less than 0.10 inches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery shows the 500mb low very nicely over Nebraska early this afternoon. This low will track to the east northeast tonight, but will only reach north central Iowa by Sunday morning. A northern stream shortwave will follow quickly on the heels of the first system, crossing southern Manitoba and moving into Southern Ontario by Monday morning. This could result in very light rain across the Lake of the Woods area or it could also remain dry (the rain staying further north). Either way, expect minimal impacts from this glancing system. Temperatures will cool on Monday behind the passing shortwave, before shortwave ridging brings high temperatures back to the low 50s south and upper 40s north. While high pressure departs on Tuesday, a shortwave trough and area of low pressure develops off the Rockies. This tightening pressure gradient between the developing low and departing high will drive breezy to windy conditions Tuesday afternoon. As the shortwave and attendant surface low propagate through Tuesday night into Wednesday, precipitation chances will return to the FA. This wave looks to be fairly open and progressive. Both of these factors will keep rainfall amounts on the lower side. Probabilities for 0.1" of precipitation are highest across MN, at 40%. Values taper off quickly to the west. Beyond midweek, deep troughing will develop over the western US, resulting in a very amplified pattern. While this does signal the potential for a more active period of weather, there is significant disagreement among ensembles about the details. The most important and consistent takeaway at this point is the warm temperatures that will be in place. All clusters show 850 mb temperatures of 1-3 degrees C over the weekend, with the 540DM heights well north and west of the forecast area. Definitely something you do not see often when forecasting in mid November. ...Rain tonight into Sunday morning... Not much rainfall has accumulated so far today, with most sensors only showing a trace to 0.01 inches. Cloud bases have remained high, generally 8,000 to 10,000 feet. The dry sub- layers shown in the morning upper air soundings have prevented much of the rain from reaching the ground (a lot of virga). The forcing with this system remains very weak and not very focused. Therefore moving into tonight, think these weak bands will continue, but not remain over any one area very long. The latest guidance is showing some stratus and fog developing over portions of the area late tonight into Sunday morning as well. At this point, that looks more likely over far southeast North Dakota into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota, possibly as far north as Bemidji. Went ahead and blended to adjacent offices with the mention of fog in these areas. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 507 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Rain and low ceilings will continue to be the aviation impacts of the TAF period. Ceilings will continue to fall this evening to MVFR and IFR, especially the further south you go. There is the low potential for fog to develop after 06z, but confidence is low in how significant fog will be for flight category impacts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon/Rafferty AVIATION...Perroux