468
FXUS63 KFGF 031748
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1248 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures will occur mid to late week, with
  morning frost likely over parts of the region. This includes a
  30-50% chance for below freezing temperatures in parts of
  northwest Minnesota Thursday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Most of the radar returns for showers still to the north of our
counties, but KBJI reported some light rain for a brief period
this afternoon. Still quite a bit of bubbly cumulus so shower
chances look like they will continue through much of the
afternoon, bringing just scattered spits of rain. Otherwise
mostly cloudy and breezy with temperatures struggling to get out
of the 50s.

UPDATE
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Not much shower activity currently across the northeastern
forecast area. However, more activity can be seen up in Canada
and CAMs and the direction of the reinforcing shortwave all have
that coming down into northwestern MN in the next few hours.
Should see some scattered showers into the afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 704 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Did trim pops for showers a bit as from radar the showers are
headed more for NW MN, esp of Hallock. Clouds are increasing
from the north as anticipated with breaks upstream. With 850 mb
moisture spreading south as upper low moves ESE will see
majority cloud cover thru early aftn NE ND and clouds increasing
SE ND before clearing works in...NW MN to see clouds into late
aftn/eve.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...Synopsis...

Two 500 mb upper level shortwaves to affect the area the next
3-4 days. Main upper low is moving south along the Manitoba and
Ontario border early this morning. An area of clouds and
showers are anticipated to drop south into northeast ND and
northwest MN early this morning. Shower chances may continue
into the afternoon but be focused in northwest closer to the
colder air aloft and better 850 mb moisture. Breezy today with
north winds gusting to 30 mph within the Red River valley.


...Frost potential Tonight/early Thursday AM...

The past couple days have highlighted the chance for frost late
tonight/Thu AM as there is a period where skies are clear and
winds are light as surface high pressure drops into eastern
SD/southwest MN late tonight with ridge north. Best timing of
clear sky and light winds at time of max cooling favors
northwest into parts west central MN for coldest temps. Using
NBM probs an area east of Hallock-Crookston-Detroit Lakes-Wadena
will see the highest chance of seeing temps 36 or lower (70 pct
chance or higher) and 30-50 percent chance of seeing temps 32 or
lower. Chance 60 pct in a small area in eastern Marshall county
in the bogs there around Agassiz NWR, Goodridge, Gatzke, NW
Beltrami county and south Roseau county. Too soon to issue a
frost advisory as talking about later tonight and still a few
questions in regards to timing of high pressure and most
importantly cloud cover.

For northeast North Dakota tonight, frost potential for temps 36
and lower are present (40 pct) but timing of clouds moving in
quickly from the northwest in advance of next system gives a bit
lower confidence in how widespread frost will be.

Models and NBM have settled on a wet Thursday as the next
strong 500 mb short wave moves southeast from northern
Saskatchewan and across North Dakota 18z Thu-00z Fri period.
Surface low is expected to track along MB/SK border into eastern
ND with an area of rain especially just east of its track.
Similar to clipper lows in winter. Chilly Thursday with temps in
the mid 40s to low 50s while raining.

Chilly and windy Friday as short wave moves east and then wraps
up into the upper low in NW Ontario. May well see showers
Friday in much of NW MN and even parts of the E ND. Model blend
pops keeps 20+ pops more closer to Lake of the Woods but may be
needed to expand west some.

Next frost potential is late Friday night/early Saturday more
for central or western ND and southwest Manitoba then over
eastern ND into MN Sat night/early Sun AM as high pressure ridge
moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions with cumulus in the 1500-4000
ft range. Most sites should become VFR by evening with cumulus
dissipating and the next round of clouds expected to be mid-
level. A few scattered rain showers mainly impacting the MN
airports this afternoon, but should be on and off. Northwest
winds that are gusting above 20 kts will settle down around
sunset, then become light and variable overnight. Some increase
from the southwest at less then 10 kts by the end of the period,
and some shower chances at KDVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR