654
FXUS63 KFGF 242321
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
621 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers today with a less than a 20 percent chance
  for lightning.

- Gradual warming trend through the week into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

High-based cumulus continues this afternoon across the County
Warning Area. No showers have been evident and limited
instability has prevented lightning over the last hour. As
sunset approaches, expect this activity to diminish overnight.
Limited to no weather impacts are expected overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...Synopsis...

A somewhat atypical spring pattern will bring predominately
ridging to the western and central CONUS over the coming week with a
short interruption mid week as an upper low swings through the
northern plains and midwest Tuesday-Thursday. This could bring a
focused area of more robust shower/weak thunderstorm activity but
not leaning towards severe potential. Overall as westerly flow aloft
heats the mid levels surface heating potential will gradually
increase through next weekend with high climbing from the upper 60s
and low 70s of today to the upper 70s and low 80s by next Saturday.

- Showers Today

Weak low level flow beneath sfc ridging with a mid level vort max to
the northeast centered near Thunder Bay is yielding steep low level
lapse rates on the order of 9.5 to 10.0C/km via SPC mesoanalysis.
Overall this is still only enough for about 100-200j/kg of SBCAPE
and the eff shear of 20kts is just enough to support the ongoing
single cell convection out in the forested areas of NW Minnesota.
These showers will continue through the afternoon with high LCL`s
and ample dry air in the BL leading to mostly virga but any stronger
cells that yield some observable rain may be capable of wind gusts
to 35mph, small hail (0.25") and infrequent lightning (20% chance).
Similar shower type activity may once again be expected Sunday
afternoon.

As an upper low moves over the area Tuesday/Wednesday our seemingly
traditional funnel risk seems plausible once again, though even the
strongest ensemble members are broad enough with the mid/upper low
evolution that this threat remains conditional and minimized at this
time. Overall rain amounts remain rather unimpressive with only a
20% chance for more that a tenth to fall, perhaps enough to settle
some dust for a few hours.

As the upper low then moves east of the area in the later half of
the week, ridging becomes dominant for the foreseeable future with
temps reaching the 80s in the northern Red River Valley as early as
Thursday. No discernible heat impacts would be expected considering
dewpoints of 50F or less so we can all look forward to a very nice
stretch of late May weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Aviation impacts will be much of the same for the TAF period.
Cumulus will diminish after sunset with light and variable winds
continuing through the entire TAF period. Cumulus likely will
develop again tomorrow afternoon although ceilings will be VFR
even if they do.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Perroux