828
FXUS63 KFGF 250138
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
738 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Monday. Accumulations will be light,
  but could see up to 2 inches across portions of west central
  and northwest Minnesota.

- First subzero wind chills of the season on the way
  Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A band of weak frontogenesis has setup at the 925 and 700mb
level to develop some light snow showers in the Fargo and
Detroit areas and extends south as far as Codington county in
South Dakota. Since we are saturated not much effort is needed
to bring those flakes to the ground.

UPDATE
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Starting to see more lower level clouds start to develop across
the area. So as we progress into the night, I`m expecting the
clouds to drop as we saturate. Currently not seeing any
indications of any of the radar reflectivities producing any
precipitation thats making it to the ground. But I`m also
expecting that to change as we progress through the night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...Synopsis...

Upper low over Saskatchewan and Manitoba today will dig down
into the CWA tonight, then off into the Upper Midwest on Monday.
Northwesterly flow with various embedded shortwaves coming
through will set up for Tuesday into the upcoming holiday
weekend, with heights gradually being knocked down with each
successive wave. Some precip chances but pretty light.

...Precipitation tonight into Monday night...

Inverted surface trough continues to move across the forecast
area this afternoon, with some freezing drizzle continuing over
parts of eastern ND but not much impact as ground temperatures
warm. Model soundings either have the dry layer aloft saturating
or the low layer getting cold enough for dendrites, so think
the FZDZ threat will end quickly this evening. The models are
indicating some decent vorts coming up from the southwest at the
same time the main upper low starts to come down out of Canada,
with a bit of phase action going on. Some 850mb frontogenesis
this evening, and some low probabilities for snow banding across
our southern and eastern counties. HREF has some probabilities
of around 60 percent for 2 inches running up from Fergus Falls
to Bemidji. At this point still think winter impact will remain
minor, but could see a few inches of accumulation overnight.

...Cold for Thanksgiving...

ECMWF EHI still has our temps in the -0.5 to -0.8 range for the
upcoming week as several shortwaves in the northwesterly flow
will help bring reinforcing cold pushes. NBM has a 30 to 50
percent chance for MinTs to drop below -10 in northeastern ND,
and that is even before wind chills. There is little question we
will be cold, just a matter of how cold and for how long.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Mostly MVFR right now but as we progress through the night I`m
expecting ceilings to drop into the IFR category and may even
below pattern altitude (1,000ft or lower) for general aviation.
Around 03z to 06z some light snow may affect KFAR and KBJI but
that should last only a few hours. Currently not seeing any
indication that light snow will make it as far north as KGFK and
KTVF but once we saturate it out tonight it may start developing
light snow that far north bringing some uncertainty to the
forecast. With the main low pressure being up in Manitoba its
uncertain how long the airports will remain IFR once it drops
into the Northern Plains.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...MM