298
FXUS63 KFGF 070333
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1033 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic fire weather concerns for rest of this week and into
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Winds have died down with sunset. RH values which had dipped
into the mid 20s in spots this afternoon are rising, currently
back into the mid 30s to upper 40s. Made tweaks to wind and sky
grids, otherwise forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Quiet across the FA this evening. The handful of
sprinkles/scattered showers have ended over the past hour or so.
As the sun sets wind gusts will subside. Forecast remains on
track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...Synopsis...

Blocking pattern continues over the CONUS, with a weak shortwave
moving through Manitoba and Ontario that has pushed a cold front
through our CWA. North winds tonight will begin to shift around
to the east and then southeast tomorrow as the surface high
shifts east. Upper ridging and returning southerly winds into
Thursday should help boost temperatures back into the 70s and
low 80s. Flow becomes more zonal and another weak cold front
pushes down into the region for Friday. A few models break out
some precip, but some keep us dry. Will continue to keep some
low POPs going but only around 20 percent. Rising heights and
winds back to the south over the weekend, and the NBM even puts
some spots near the 90 mark for Sunday. There are signs of a
more active pattern precipitation wise as flow becomes more
southwesterly early next week, but details have yet to be
determined.

...Fire weather concerns throughout the week...

Cold front passing through has boosted northerly winds up into
the 20 to 25 mph sustained range, but cooler temperatures in all
but our far southeastern border have kept RH values above 30
percent. Drier air moving in tonight and lingering tomorrow
behind the cold front, but winds will be fairly light as they
shift back around to the southeast. Probability for RH less than
25 percent and winds greater than 20 mph is 10 percent or less
for the next 48 hours. May have to watch far northwestern MN
tomorrow afternoon as RHs have a 50 percent chance to get below
25 percent and there is concern when it gets that dry regardless
of wind. HDWI has some 75th percentiles for the weekend and into
Monday, so will have to watch that time period for fire weather
issues, particularly on Sunday when both temperatures and winds
climb.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

VFR will persist through the TAF period, with minimal changes to
the previously issued set. The only notable feature to time out
in the TAFs are wind shifts as they pinwheel around a passing
area of high pressure. No wind gusts are expected Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty