170
FXUS63 KFGF 201052
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
552 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this
  afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...Synopsis...

Split flow aloft with the southern branch upper low passing by
to our southeast today and then off into MN/WI tonight. Pressure
gradient across the CWA tightening this morning as a surface
trough pushes into central ND, but then relaxing again tonight
as that trough washes out. Brief upper ridging between systems
tomorrow, then another trough moving into the Northern Plains
Monday night into Tuesday. This one taking a more northerly
track from the Dakotas into Manitoba and Ontario, bringing
some precipitation. Impacts look low with nothing standing out
from climatology, and probabilities for over half an inch of QPF
less than 30 percent. Broad trough across the region on
Thursday, then brief northwesterly flow on Friday before ridging
returns on Saturday.

...Fire weather concerns this afternoon...

Expecting afternoon temperatures to get warmer than yesterday,
with highs climbing into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Good mixing
will be competing with some weak moisture advection, bringing
dew points in the 20s to low 30s. Afternoon RH values could drop
below 25 percent, particularly in the far western CWA as well as
portions of northwestern MN. Winds will pick up out of the south
and could get into the 20 to 25 mph range, particularly in the
Red River Valley during late morning and early afternoon. The
issue will be that by the time peak heating and lowest RHs hit
late afternoon, the winds will be starting to slack off a bit as
the gradient relaxes. There is a joint probability of 50
percent for RH values less than 25 percent and winds over 20 mph
in the northern Red River Valley. However, need 25 mph in that
area for Red Flag. The highest winds currently look to be where
there is the highest afternoon RH values near 30 percent. With
that, will keep the near critical messaging going, with an SPS
for the MN counties and mention in the HWO for the ND side.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and only some high clouds
moving into west central MN this morning. Currently some low
level wind shear for the next few hours, but should end by 15Z
or before as winds pick up at the surface and the upper winds
decrease. Gusts from the south at 25 kts or greater will be
possible this afternoon. Winds will decrease a bit around
sunset, remaining mostly southeasterly.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR