791
FXUS63 KFGF 051146
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon.

- Chance for strong or severe storms Thursday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Trimmed pops back even more as NBM and models too slow with
moving out the rain. Dry conditions exist in our fcst of
Minnesota. Did leave 20 pop in far southeast (Wadena, Elbow
Lake) in case some very light rain occurs still thru mid
morning. Tweeked sky cover some. Clearing into NE ND at 11z and
overall clearing trend working southeast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...Synopsis...

The showers have moved mostly out of our fcst area as of 08z,
considerably faster than model fcst. There are a few showers
that have been dropping south earlier from Devils Lake and are
not in south east ND west of Oakes. A few showers to start the
day in our southeast and far south fcst area but otherwise the
main thing will be the passage of a cold front and behind it
breezy north wind, much lower dew points and cooler
temperatures along with clearing. Expect mostly sunny conditions
most of the area this afternoon. High pressure will build south
into southern Manitoba tonight and then move east Sunday.

500 mb short wave will move east along the Montana/Canadian
border late today into Sunday with chance for showers and
t-storms to our west in Montana and western ND southward. This
wave will move east across the area Sunday night but moisture
with this diminishes and chances for rain is limited to parts of
the Devils Lake basin to Valley City.

...Isolated severe storms possible Mon afternoon...

There is another bit stronger wave that will move east-southeast
from central Alberta Sunday night and into northeast North
Dakota by late Monday afternoon. Sfc CAPE values in the
1000-1500 j/kg range late Monday combined with a bit of a cool
pool at 500 mb due to the wave to produce scattered
thunderstorms. 0-6 km shear is 30-40 kts sufficient for isolated
supercell development. Not anticipating a big event as
instability isnt great, but enough for SPC to but area in a
marginal Risk, esp RRV and MN parts of the fcst area.

Wave moves out Monday overnight with clearing Tuesday.


...Chance for strong or severe storms Thursday afternoon and
evening...

A stronger 500 mb trough and short wave will move thru Canada
Wednesday thru Thursday with low pressure system in northern
Manitoba and a cold front south into central ND at 00z Fri.
GFS/ECMWF indicate 2500-3500 j/kg sfc CAPE into the area
Thursday aftn and 35-45 kt 0-6 km shear which would be
sufficient for organized updrafts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Lingering patchy MVFR cigs Bemidji area and adjacent areas to
the south into Park Rapids as well. Drier airmass working in
will get rid of the lower clouds by mid morning. Otherwise
soundings show enough moisture for some high based CU around
6-8k ft. So did use that as the sky cover (scattered) for the
afternoon. North winds 10-20 kts, few gusts 25 kts in the RRV,
then winds diminishing this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle