316
FXUS62 KFFC 291948
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
348 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Key Messages:

    - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon
      and evening today and Monday.

    - Any storm that forms has the potential to produce
      nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding.

    - Slightly more seasonable (but still hot and muggy) conditions to
      continue.

With lingering troughiness (for lack of a better or more scientific
word) at the mid-levels and weak flow at the surface, expecting the
summertime status quo of diurnally-driven convection throughout the
afternoon and evening to continue through at least Monday. This
morning`s 12Z FFC sounding suggests slightly better chances for any
storms that form to translate at just a few ticks faster than the
past few days` crawl. However, in the absence of meaningful steering
flow aloft, cannot rule out the potential for some back building.
WPC has outlooked much of north and central Georgia within a
Marginal (level 1 out of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall as a
result, and any thunderstorms that form today may be capable of
producing more than just nuisance flooding/ponding of roads and
poor drainage areas. With surface-based instability on the order
of 2000-3000 J/kg (and perhaps higher in areas that initiate
later), cannot rule out a few potent upward pulses that may pack a
punch on the way down, but not expecting widespread or organized
severe weather.

For Monday, rinse and repeat. Patchy decreased visibilities in fog
are possible -- in the wake of precipitation -- around daybreak
tomorrow, which could impact the morning commute. Very little change
is expected throughout the column, and in some locations, the
airmass may be even more moist than today`s (PWAT exceeding 2"). As
such, expect isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to develop
during the afternoon once again, likely to be focused and perhaps
very weakly organized along any remnant outflow boundaries left
behind from this evening`s storms.

Forecast high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s
this afternoon and Monday afternoon (mid 70s to low 80s in the
northeast mountains). Forecast morning lows remain mild with values
in the 60s to lower 70s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Key Messages:

  - Wet to start, now looking like things may dry up a bit for
    north Georgia by the end of the long term. Still scattered
    storm chances through the period for central Georgia

  - More average afternoon highs before heating again to the lower
    90s by the end of the week.

Forecast:

Biggest change to the long term forecast is the progression of the
front into the area by the middle of the week, which has some pretty
big implications for PoPs and temperatures. We start on Tuesday with
stout upper level wave with embedded shortwave progressing across
the Midwest with a cut off piece of a TUTT the the east of the CWA.
This will draw a good bit of moisture into the CWA, bringing what
looks to be the best rain and thunderstorm chances of the week into
the area. Still not expecting widespread severe with this, with
better shear removed well to the north and lapse rates/CAPE looking
mediocre given repeated rounds of afternoon convection over the past
few days.

Models, including across much of the ensemble suite, seem to have
picked up on something with either the shortwave or anticyclonic
rossby wave break occurring behind it, because all of them have
amplified the trough a bit more, digging it into the SE going into
Wednesday. This will do a better job of driving the front into the
area, which will bring a combination of relatively drier surface air
alongside pretty warm air aloft, which will stifle diurnally driven
convection chances across parts of north Georgia. This looks to
remain in place through the end of the long term, with a very slow
return to some isolated PoP chances by the weekend as the surface
slowly brings back moisture. Drier airmass will also allow for
high temps to rise a bit more under the summer sun, so highs will
drift back into the lower to mid 90s.

One additional thing to note is that the NHC does have a 20% area
just off the coast across the SE for the next 7 days. This is likely
in response to some guidance that has been showing potential for a
low to spin up along the baroclinicity generated by the frontal
system and tap into some warm Gulf or west Atlantic temps. Models do
seem to have backed off that idea a bit with this run, but the
positioning of various features will place a big role in this, so it
bears watching for a few more days.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Primarily FEW-SCT VFR conditions to continue thru the TAF pd.
Isold TSRA psbl from 18-00Z this aftn/eve, and then again tomorrow
aftn. Potential exists for low-VFR to MVFR vsbys in FG/BR to
develop following pcpn, but confidence remains rather low on
location/placement. Winds to remain out of the W side at 4-6kts,
and may go CALM/VRB overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence AM vsby restrictions.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  71  87 /  30  50  40  90
Atlanta         71  89  72  87 /  30  60  50  90
Blairsville     64  85  66  82 /  30  80  50  90
Cartersville    70  89  71  87 /  30  70  40  90
Columbus        71  89  71  87 /  50  70  40  80
Gainesville     71  88  72  85 /  30  60  50  90
Macon           71  90  71  87 /  40  60  40  80
Rome            70  88  71  87 /  30  70  40  80
Peachtree City  69  90  70  87 /  30  60  40  80
Vidalia         72  90  72  90 /  40  60  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...96