361
FXUS62 KFFC 171835
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
235 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Key Messages:

    - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
      expected through early this evening and Monday afternoon.
      Frequent lightning, locally heavy rain and gusty winds may
      accompany storms that develop.

    - Warming temperatures with heat indices in the 97 to 103 range
      for Monday.

Discussion:

Once again widespread Cu has been quick to develop over the last
hour. Latest radar imagery shows showers and storms already
beginning to pop-up across North GA this afternoon. Despite some
slightly drier air working into the region given the building
surface, strong diurnal heating within a still fairly moist
environment will result in isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms through this evening. Latest hi-res guidance struggled to
initiate what`s currently ongoing in North GA and with this forecast
updated elected to bump up rain/thunder chances to 15-25% for much
of northern and western GA. CAPEs on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg,
PWs of 1.5 to 1.9 inches and lack of shear will support slower
moving storms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. Showers and storms should begin to wane shortly
around or shortly after sunset. Patchy fog may again be possible
overnight especially in areas that received a good amount of rain.

Largely anticipating a rinse and repeat forecast for Monday given
upper riding still in place over the MS River Valley and a surface
high over portions of the Southeast. Diurnally driven convection in
the afternoon, FEW-SCT Cu-field and temperatures a few degrees
warmer than today. Forecast high temperatures will climb into the
low to mid 90s (92-96) and low 80s in the northeast GA mountains.
Heat indices are forecast to range from 96 to 103, though a few
locations in Central GA could briefly approach 105. At this time
there are no plans for a Heat Advisory but the next forecast will re-
evaluate. Regardless, please be proactive and be mindful of the heat
if spending any amount of time outdoors!

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Key Messages:

 - Daytime high temps will fall through the week from the 90s
   Tuesday to the 80s Fri/Sat.

 - Precipitation chances slowly increasing each afternoon from
   Wednesday to Saturday.

Upper and mid level ridging continues across the Gulf and the
southeastern U.S. as Erin nears the eastern seaboard. This ridging
will help to keep Erin offshore and steer it northward away from the
eastern U.S. Right now it looks like the closest Erin`s center gets
to the GA coast will be about 550 miles offshore Wed morning. This
ridge is definitely acting as a block for the tropical system but it
will also help to keep temps across the region in the 90s Tue & Wed.
This ridge is expected to weaken a bit through next weekend with
precip chances slowly increasing and daytime highs lowering. By Sat
we will see daytime highs in the lower to middle 80s with some 70s
in the NE GA mountains. PWATs slowly increase through next week
starting in the 1.5-1.7" Tue, to 1.75-2.00" by Fri/Sat. This will
drive precip chances higher from isolated/scattered Tues, to
numerous Fri/Sat. Not expecting much instability to develop this
week so any diurnally driven convection we receive is not expected
to become severe.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Cu at 3
to 5kft will persist through 00z. Winds will largely be out of the
east through the period at less than 7kts before becoming calm/VRB
overnight. Iso to Sct shra/tsra remain possible through 00z.
Introduced VCSH at the ATL sites based on current radar trends and
latest hi-res guidance. Activity diminishes around 00z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on VCSH this afternoon
High confidence on remaining elements

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  94  72  89 /  10  10  10  30
Atlanta         74  94  74  91 /  10  20  10  30
Blairsville     67  89  68  84 /  10  30  10  50
Cartersville    72  95  73  92 /  10  20  10  30
Columbus        74  95  74  95 /  10  10   0  20
Gainesville     72  93  72  88 /  10  20  10  40
Macon           72  94  73  93 /  10  10   0  20
Rome            71  95  72  92 /  10  10  10  20
Peachtree City  72  94  72  92 /  10  20  10  20
Vidalia         72  94  72  93 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07