399
FXUS62 KFFC 281750
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Key Messages:

-Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening

-A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible with downburst
wind gusts being the primary threat. Frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall are also likely with any storms that develop

-Additional shower and thunderstorm chances expected again for Sunday

-Near or slightly above temperatures to continue through the weekend

Scattered convection continues across areas south of I-85 and west
of I-75 at the time of this writing. Isolated convection is also
begin to re-develop across portions of the metro where a remnant
boundary likely remains in place. Outflows and an unchanged unstable
airmass have contributed to ongoing convection up until now. Heavy
rainfall and high rain rates were quite impressive yesterday evening
into early this morning -- nearly 2" rain rates (some areas may have
seen slightly higher rates) have been the trend with many locations
across the metro and areas west of Macon receiving ~3-4" of rainfall
resulting in flash flooding. With scattered convection continuing
early this morning current thinking is it may take some time for
showers and storms to get going this afternoon. But once storms do
get going strong downburst wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the
primary concerns. Frequent lightning will also accompany any storms
that develop.

Essentially a rinse and repeat forecast for Sunday. The upper low
over the Southeast remains in place providing lift amidst a warm
moist environment. Thus, diurnally driven afternoon convection can
be expected. Additionally, cannot rule out an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm with downburst wind gusts and small hail as the
main threats. As we`ve seen the past few days many of these storms
pulsed up pretty quickly. Heavy rainfall and instances of flash
flooding will also be something to monitor given high PWs (1-2") and
recent heavy rainfall.

Temperatures remain slightly above normal through the weekend.
Forecast highs both today (Saturday) and tomorrow (Sunday) will be
in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices ranging 95 to 100.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

No major updates to the long term forecast. Typical summer-like
pattern can be expected with daily rain and thunder changes and
warming temperatures. For a detailed discussion please see the
previous discussion below.

Key Messages:

  - Very moist forecast, with diurnally driven convection every day.

  - Severe not anticipated at this time, but some uncertainty.

Forecast:

Few overall changes to the forecast this afternoon for the long
term. Next week still looks to be pretty moist with copious
chances for diurnally driven afternoon convection. The upper level
low over the Southeast currently continues to spin in place and
fill through the weekend, providing continued lift. Repeated
rounds of convection through the weekend will do a number on lapse
rates, which should limit the overall severe threat Sunday into
Monday, but with plenty of moisture around and summer heating,
can`t rule out a storm or two getting a little bit feisty.
Ensembles have pretty good consensus through this time period,
though one potential "gotcha" for the models will be recovery of
the atmosphere from day to day, where a particularly robust day of
convection may act to limit things a bit more on the next day,
especially given the lack of upper level winds to advect latent
heating due to convection.

Today into Saturday, we will see the TUTT positioned out over the
Atlantic undergo a pretty big squeeze thanks to anticyclonic
rossby wave breaks occurring upstream of it. This will pinch off
another upper level piece of the PV streamer that will develop
into a cyclonically spinning upper level low that will retrograde
towards the SE coastline by Monday. This system creates a point of
uncertainty (and least with today`s runs) within the ensembles,
with the Euro suite being a bit more aggressive with pulling it
into the SE, and the GFS suite keeping it to the east off the
coastline. By Tuesday, a shortwave will move within the upper
level jet across the US/Canadian border and drive a quick moving
surface low that will drive a front towards the area on Tuesday
into Wednesday that should stall before reaching the CWA. This
system will bring moisture streaming into the area causing rain
chances on Tuesday to increase even more than the previous days.
Severe chances may be dependent on the position of the
aforementioned upper level low - if it has moved over the area, it
will not only aid in lift, but may bring some enhanced lapse
rates through cooling aloft. Will need to keep an eye on this time
period.

Otherwise, temperatures will likely be modulated through the
longterm by copious surface moisture and afternoon
convection/cloud cover. Highs start in the low 90s and sink into
the 80s by the middle of next week. High Td`s hovering in the 70s
will keep overnight lows elevated to the lower 70s.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Primarily FEW-SCT VFR conditions to continue thru the TAF pd.
Isold TSRA psbl once again between 19-02Z this aftn/eve, with very
slow storm motions likely. Potential exists for low-VFR to MVFR
vsbys in FG/BR to develop following pcpn, but fairly low
confidence on location/placement. Winds to remain out of the WSW
to NW at 4-8kts, and may go CALM/VRB overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence thunderstorm timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  69  92  71 /  40  20  40  20
Atlanta         90  71  90  72 /  40  20  40  20
Blairsville     85  64  86  65 /  60  30  60  30
Cartersville    90  69  90  70 /  40  20  40  20
Columbus        92  71  91  72 /  40  20  60  20
Gainesville     90  70  90  71 /  50  20  50  30
Macon           91  70  92  71 /  40  10  50  20
Rome            89  69  89  70 /  40  20  50  20
Peachtree City  90  69  90  69 /  50  20  40  20
Vidalia         92  72  92  73 /  40  20  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...96