533
FXUS62 KFFC 021510
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1110 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...Morning Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Cloud cover blankets much of North and portions of Central Georgia
this morning as a result of the wedge front. Latest surface
analysis places this boundary roughly along a line from Columbus
to Macon. Cloud cover north of the boundary has kept temperatures
in the 70s with areas south of the boundary are already seeing
temperatures in the low 80s. Dreary conditions will continue
through the day with widespread showers expected by the afternoon.
While isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out within the wedge,
the highest coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will occur along
and south of the wedge front due to LL convergence along the
front and locally high PW values (~2 inches per SPC Mesoanalysis).
Stronger storms in this area may be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts late this afternoon and evening. With the wedge in
place through early next week and widespread rainfall expected,
flooding may become a growing concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 426 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Current radar loop shows an area of showers persisting over east
central GA which appears to be along the wedge frontal boundary.
Looking at the current obs across the regions easterly flow is
setting up across E and NE GA with low clouds moving in as seen
on satellite. This is the CAD (Cold Air Damming) wedge of high
pressure building down the eastern seaboard. This wedge is
forecast to move slowly south and west today and dominate the
weather patten across north and central GA through the beginning
of next week. Not sure just how far south it will be able to push
into the area Today so still expecting thunderstorms across the
area being more numerous south of the wedge front. It does look
like it should push south of the ATL area today so will most
likely see the stronger storms along and south of a CSG to MCN
line. Should the wedge not push as far as forecasted then we could
see more thunderstorm development into western GA and towards the
I-75 corridor. With the wedge moving in High temps Today will be
about 10-15 degrees lower across north GA than they were
yesterday. Highs today will get up into the 70s and 80s across
North GA with some near 90s over central portions of the state.
Temps will continue to fall with highs Sunday only getting up into
the 70s and 80s with some 60s across the NE GA mountains.

When it comes to flooding potential tomorrow, where the front sets
up will play a large factor. Currently it is forecasted to setup
over central Georgia which will allow for increase QPF amounts that
could lead to flash flooding in this increased PWAT environment.
WPC still has most of central and south GA under a slight risk for
excessive rainfall as well as a slight risk over the northeast
portions of our area. This area could also see increased rainfall
amounts with interactions from the North GA mountains and the wedge
front. Current QPF amounts are 1-2 inches Today, Sunday, and again
Mon. This would give us a 3 day total of 2-4 inches with isolated
higher amounts. These totals would be highly dependent on if we
see rainfall train over the same area day to day. Central and
south GA can handle higher amounts of rain than North GA but if we
do see some of the higher totals some flooding issues could occur.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

At a glance:

- A stationary front will keep pop chances elevated across central
  Georgia as we start off next week.

- Cooler temperatures are expected next week, but unsettled weather
  in the afternoon will likely continue.

This weekend the stationary front is expected to stall across middle
Georgia. As a result, PoPs there continues to be elevated during the
afternoon as daytime heating gets things going. Behind the front
however, cold air damming down the appalachians will provide a much
needed break from storms as well as keep a lid on afternoon
thunderstorms across north Georgia. The trick in the forecast is
determining how far south the front stalls.

Models are currently holding on to the idea that the stationary
front will stick around through the weekend and into next week. With
our best guess at around 4+ inches of rain along and south of I-20.
PW values in our forecast soundings are set to exceed 2". As a
result, we`re expecting some flooding issues. The

The pattern returns to something that resembles normal toward the
middle of the week as another trough ejects the lingering stationary
boundary, with cooler temperatures (highs in the mid 80s) and our
normal storm coverage. Overnight lows in the mid 70s Saturday`s
front will fall back into the 60s at the start of next week
generally giving the entire CWA a break from the heat we saw.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Low clouds and easterly winds beginning to move in as the wedge of
high pressure builds in from the NE. These conditions expected to
continue across the area through the weekend. Will see IFR and
MVFR ceilings through this TAF set with east winds in the 6-12kt
range. Will also see afternoon showers across the area with
isolated thunderstorms mainly across MCN and CSG. Depending on how
far the wedge has built into the area will determine if the
ATL area TAF sites see any afternoon TSRA. VSBYS will be mainly
VFR but could see some MVFR VSBYs with afternoon precip.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  66  73  64 /  70  70  80  50
Atlanta         83  68  73  65 /  90  70  80  50
Blairsville     76  62  70  60 /  80  70  80  40
Cartersville    84  69  75  65 /  80  70  70  40
Columbus        90  72  82  69 /  90  80  90  60
Gainesville     79  67  71  65 /  80  70  70  50
Macon           87  71  79  67 /  80  80  90  60
Rome            84  69  77  65 /  80  70  70  30
Peachtree City  85  69  75  65 /  90  80  80  50
Vidalia         87  71  81  70 /  90  80  90  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...01