965
FXUS62 KFFC 222315
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
715 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 515 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Key Messages

    - A weak cold front Friday morning will bring little to no
      rainfall.

    - A cooler and drier airmass will be reinforced in north Georgia.

A mostly nondescript forecast is ahead in the short term. The
forecast area will remain within northwest flow aloft, and a weak
disturbance/dry cold front will approach the area tonight into
Friday morning. This system will be very moisture starved with
little in the way of precipitation expected. An isolated light rain
shower can`t entirely be ruled out Friday morning, but PoPs were
kept generally only around 10% across north Georgia.

A reinforcement of the cooler, drier airmass will arrive across
north Georgia on Friday. Widespread 50s are likely Friday morning in
north Georgia with highs remaining in the 70s to low 80s, though
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 will linger in Middle Georgia.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 515 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Key Messages:

  - Warming through weekend, possible wedge/CAD early next week may
bring temperatures swing to parts of north Georgia.

  - Some rain/storm chances Saturday into Sunday across north
Georgia, increasing into early next week as a low pressure system
passes by the area.

Forecast:

Long term picks up Saturday with upper level trough of the east
coast and ridge building over the central US. This will put the CWA
under NW flow aloft. Moisture will return to the area as winds
slowly move back around to the south, creating an instability axis
across the CWA from NW to SW both Saturday and Sunday. Two small
shortwaves (possibly convectively induced) propagate within the
NW flow - one on Saturday and one on Sunday. If these are able to
hold together, we could see a push of storms into the CWA both
days at some point, possibly as an organized convective line. One
thing to note each day is that while shear aloft does exist, it
isn`t anything too impressive, with hodographs straight but a bit
"on top" of themselves. 0-6km shear is generally 20-25 kts within
sampled model profiles over northern Georgia each day. Given
forecast SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, won`t rule out something
getting a bit spicy (severe), but chances currently don`t look as
good as some of the systems that moved through this past week.
Marginal Risk extends into parts of GA on Saturday as a result.

Going into Monday, upper level system over the Great Plains slowly
moves to the east and becomes increasingly negatively tilted. This
trough interacts with baroclinic zone located across southeast and
generates surface cyclone which moves by the CWA Monday night into
Tuesday morning, bringing some increased rain and storm chances.
Alongside this, large area of confluence aloft over the NE will
allow for big surface high pressure to slide into northern
Appalachians, bringing our old friend "the wedge" (cold air damming)
sliding down the eastern side of the slopes. Some big points of
uncertainty remain across the model ensembles, especially regarding
the strength of the wedge and whether or not it makes it into the
CWA. Ensemble 10th-90th percentiles show differences in highs on
Tuesday by as much as 15-20 degrees F in north and especially
northeastern GA, making the difference between a day in the 70s and
a day near 90. Generally, will lean towards the wedge winning and
making its way into the CWA. While this is happening, copious
moisture will be brought from the Gulf into the CWA by the passing
surface low, bringing widespread rain chances and some thunderstorm
chances. Too much uncertainty remains to discuss strength of storms
or anything like that, but I`ll say what I always say this time of
year, which is "it`s May". Keep an eye on things.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Gusty NW winds diminish after
00z to generally less than 10kts, then pick back up around 16z
Friday. Low-end gusts 17-20kts remain possible at the northern
sites. A weak midlevel wave will bring in some FEW/SCT
10,000-25,000ft cigs after 06z, with FEW/SCT cu field developing
after 15z Friday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  79  55  79 /  10   0   0  10
Atlanta         61  80  60  81 /  10   0  10  20
Blairsville     49  70  47  72 /   0   0  10  30
Cartersville    55  78  54  77 /  10   0  20  30
Columbus        62  86  63  89 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     57  77  55  76 /  10   0  10  30
Macon           62  84  61  87 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            55  78  54  76 /  10   0  20  40
Peachtree City  58  82  58  83 /  10   0  10  20
Vidalia         65  87  65  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...07