335
FXUS62 KFFC 151136
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
636 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

 - Widespread rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are likely
   Sunday through Monday morning. A couple of strong thunderstorms
   cannot be ruled out in central Georgia.

 - A warming trend next week will lead to highs in the 70s across
   the majority of the area Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Conditions to deteriorate as the upper level trough swings through
the area. The current line has entered Mississippi and is making
quick (if a little faster than anticipated) progress across the
southern Gulf states. The strongest portion of the line currently
sits further south than anticipated as well and is weakening, which
may be hinting at our area getting cut off from some of the moist
and warm flow necessary for thunderstorms. Will continue to keep an
eye out, however this lowers some of the severe threat for central
Georgia tomorrow.

Current radar also shows several weak bands well out ahead of the
system. No precipitation has made it to the ground as of yet, but
this may be priming wedge conditions early as well. As the line
approaches, expecting a more generally widespread shower with
isolated thunder threat. There has not been significant QPF change
from previous forecasts, however temperatures continue to require
lowering towards the NBM25 in order to represent the weak wedge
development.

The greatest chances for stronger thunderstorms currently sits south
of a line from Columbus to Macon and Dublin, where the most recent
HREF probability of SBCAPE >500 J/Kg peaks around 35 to 40% (current
trends leaning towards a lower solution). This will be the limiting
factor for thunderstorms, not shear where the probability of 0-6km
shear >50kts is over 80% across the area. Main hazards include gusty
to damaging winds and, while unlikely, a brief tornado or two.

Secondary frontal development is likely as the surface low slowly
moves across the state. Many CAMs have held consistent in the
development of a rear feature with re-ingnition of convection near
and south of metro ATL. This is not likely to be severe, though
should we get some clearing sooner than expected we could see a few
rumbles of thunder out of these.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

The long term picks up as the rain moves out on Monday. Drier warmer
conditions are expected to quickly filter in behind the front as the
system lifts off to the north east. As winds become southerly on
Tuesday and Wednesday, temps will climb into the 70s across the CWA.
By the time the work week comes to a close, we could be seeing low
80s creep up as high as Columbus and Macon. If you`ve been wishing
for spring, it looks like that wish is about to come true.

The models are hinting at the possibility of some light rain across
north Georgia Friday afternoon, but the highest rainfall totals will
likely stay north of us as the upper level impulse and parent low
are continually pulled north over the Great Lakes.

As a result, conditions look pretty quiet for the next week with
warm temperatures and plenty of sunshine, so if you were looking for
an excuse to get outside, we`re pleased to bring it to you.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Rain has made its way into the area with cigs falling slightly
earlier than previously anticipated. Cigs and vsbys likely to
remain in the LIFR to IFR range through the day with more
consistent IFR conditions to the south. Winds turn from SE to NW
this afternoon behind the front.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low confidence LIFR conditions longevity.
Medium confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  43  66  39 / 100  40   0   0
Atlanta         62  46  67  44 / 100  30   0   0
Blairsville     53  40  66  37 / 100  20   0   0
Cartersville    61  46  68  43 / 100  20   0   0
Columbus        69  50  70  45 /  90  40   0   0
Gainesville     53  43  65  41 / 100  30   0   0
Macon           68  48  68  42 /  90  60   0   0
Rome            64  47  72  44 / 100  20   0   0
Peachtree City  66  46  67  42 / 100  40   0   0
Vidalia         74  52  67  43 /  90  70   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...SM