903
FXUS62 KFFC 051859
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Key Messages:

 - Areas of dense fog are possible across north and central Georgia
   between 4 AM and 10 AM Friday morning.

 - A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms could produce damaging
   wind gusts in northwest Georgia between 5 PM Friday and 1 AM
   Saturday.

This Evening and Tonight:

Diurnally driven showers will continue over central Georgia through
around 8 PM this evening. Convective activity will decrease quickly
after sunset with the loss of afternoon heating and subsequent
instability. A couple of isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
this afternoon, but widespread lighting is unlikely due to freezing
levels that are above 13,000 ft AGL and near the top of the unstable
layer. Despite the overall lack of lightning, a deep pool of
tropical moisture below 500 mb (precipitable water values in the 1.8
to 2.0 inch range) should make these showers efficient rain
producers for there size.

As we move into the overnight hours the diurnally driven cumulus
field should decrease in coverage. This should leave us with partly
cloudy to fair skies tonight, and result in decent conditions
radiational cooling. Combine this with light winds and dewpoints in
the 67 to 72 degree range and the setup may be right for areas of
dense fog. Fog is most likely between 4 AM and 10 AM Friday and
there is a 20% chance of a Dense Fog Advisory being issued.

Severe Weather Potential Friday:

For the majority of the day and for most of us, Friday will consist
of humid, warm, and dry weather. Once we push past 1 PM, a few
isolated thunderstorms may develop across western or central
Georgia. We can`t rule out a couple of these storms being on the
stronger side with gusts near 40 mph. In general though the primary
severe weather threat should hold off until Friday evening. This is
when a cluster of thunderstorms associated with a weak shortwave
traversing Tennessee could move into northwest Georgia. CAM trends
have generally pulled back on the overall thunderstorm chances
across northwest Georgia per the latest 12Z HREF run. This gives us
less confidence in the occurrence of an MCS and leads to the
expectation of a more broken cluster of loosely organized convection.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2
of 5) for severe weather north of Interstate 85 and this generally
seems reasonable. The primary hazard with any strong to severe
storms should be damaging wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range. The
peak period for storm activity and severe risk should occur between
5 PM Friday and 1 AM Saturday. Isolated thunderstorm activity may
occur south of Interstate 85 overnight. However weaker shear and
decreasing instability should limit the severe risk and overall
storm coverage.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Key Messages:

    - Chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon over
      the next 7 days, with potential for severe thunderstorms
      Saturday and Sunday.

    - Any storms that do form will be efficient rainfall producers,
      capable of supporting localized/nuisance flooding.

A glance at the extended range reveals a (literal) rinse and repeat
pattern, with diurnally-driven convection likely each afternoon and
evening, further supported by the interaction of a a series of
shortwaves rounding the base of a broader mid-level trough with a
lingering baroclinic zone meandering about the northern Gulf. In
addition to garden-variety, summer-like thunderstorms capable of
upending any outdoor activities with frequent lighting and locally
heavy rainfall, chances for severe thunderstorms will linger through
much of the weekend.

A Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk has been analyzed across the
entirety of north and central Georgia for Saturday. Similar to
Friday, the primary concern would be the potential for damaging wind
gusts and perhaps isolated instances of large hail (up to 1" or
quarter-sized) within the strongest storms. Ample instability,
potentially upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg per ensembles, will develop
with the onset of daytime heating, sufficient to support strong
initial upward pulses. Kinematics are none-too-impressive, but still
amplified for June, and 25-35 kts of deep layer shear in addition to
progged surface-based and most unstable CAPE is enough to
corroborate severe weather chances. Redevelopment is likely along
remnant outflow boundaries that will linger along wherever the
southern extent of Friday`s activity falls -- with the most probable
location being across the midsection of the state. Global model
guidance suggests that an upstream MCS may maintain itself such that
quasi-organized clusters of storms may enter the area from the west,
and if so, these would pose the greatest risk for damaging winds.

A smaller area across southeast central Georgia has been outlooked
in what is equivalent to another Slight Risk for Sunday, but because
activity on Sunday will be contingent on what shakes out on
Saturday, uncertainty remains regarding intensity and placement of
convection. However, the parameter space will be relatively
unchanged -- remnant outflow boundaries for lift, instability on the
order of 1500-2000 J/kg, and bulk shear of 20-30kts -- and thus the
ceiling would be similar to Saturday wherever convective initiation
occurs.

Multiple waves of high-PWAT airmasses (as high as 1.5-2") will
support efficient rainfall producers even if storms are patchy in
nature. WPC has at least a portion of the forecast area under a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall each day Saturday through
Monday. 24-hr flash flood guidance is currently on the order of 3.5-
4.5" areawide, so not expecting widespread flooding concerns at this
time, but redevelopment over areas that have received periods of
heavy rainfall in days prior would mean localized pockets of very
saturated soils. As a result, isolated flash or nuisance flooding is
possible in instances of training/backbuilding or particularly heavy
showers or thunderstorms.

Highs will be a few degrees warmer than average on Saturday, topping
out in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Sunday and beyond, the forecast area
will be largely post-frontal, doing little to properly dry us out,
but contributing to highs slightly below average -- in the upper-70s
to near 90. Overnight lows will be fairly uniformly in the upper 50s
to lower 70s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The areas of MVFR ceilings (1000-3000 ft AGL) will transition to
VFR conditions (ceilings 3500-6500 ft AGL) by 22Z today.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue in
central Georgia through 01Z Friday. Areas of LIFR/IFR conditions
(ceilings below 600 ft and patchy fog) may return between 06Z and
14Z Friday. Impacts possible at all the TAF sites. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible after 18Z Friday. Winds will remain
light and variable through 14Z Friday, then west (260-310 degrees)
winds in the 3 to 8 kt range are expected.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Moderate timing in the return of VFR conditions by 22Z.
High confidence in light and variable winds through 14Z Friday.
Moderate confidence in (ceilings below 600 ft) or fog between 09Z
and 13Z Friday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  89  69  88 /  10  10  20  50
Atlanta         69  90  72  88 /  10  20  30  60
Blairsville     62  85  64  81 /  20  40  50  70
Cartersville    66  90  69  87 /  10  30  50  70
Columbus        71  91  72  91 /  20  30  20  60
Gainesville     67  88  70  86 /  10  20  30  60
Macon           69  90  72  92 /  20  30  20  60
Rome            67  89  69  86 /  10  50  60  80
Peachtree City  68  89  70  89 /  10  30  30  60
Vidalia         71  90  73  92 /  40  30  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Albright