625
FXUS62 KFFC 231102
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Key Messages:

  - Flood Watch remains in effect through 2 AM early Sunday morning
for portions of eastern and central Georgia. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon that could
lead to isolated flash flooding.

  - While thunderstorms will remain possible on Sunday, threat
should be much more isolated, which will begin a drying trend thanks
to a frontal system approaching the area.

Forecast:

Light to moderate rain continues this morning across portions of
north and central Georgia, primarily across the eastern side. These
are slowly fading and should continue to do so through the rest of
the morning. Low cloud cover and some patchy fog is already
overspreading most of north and central Georgia with the exception
of far north Georgia. This cloud cover should stick around well past
sunrise, possibly remaining through the afternoon.

Weak surface high will build in across the NE CONUS in the space
between quick departing extratropical Erin and next stronger upper
level system pushing through the upper midwest and Great Lakes. In
addition to this, weak surface low is progged to form along Gulf
coast and push into the Atlantic this afternoon through tonight.
Easterly winds will continue to pile moisture into portions of
eastern Georgia this afternoon, bringing forecast PWAT values once
again well above 2". Upper level winds remain weak, with 0-8km
forecast mean winds once again below 5 kts today. Expecting another
round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening
across eastern Georgia that will be very slow moving and capable of
very heavy rainfall rates that could lead to flash flooding of small
creeks, streams, and rivers as well as potential problems in more
urban locations. Compounding this will be rainfall from yesterday,
which is some locations was upwards of 3". These locations may be
especially susceptible to flash flooding with very saturated
soils. HREF/REFS 90th percentile values are once again
highlighting the potential to see 4"+ amounts in a few locations
where outflows merge and storms remain nearly stationary.

Signal for a bit of a psuedo-wedge to push into NE GA by the evening
hours, bringing a push of drier air across the north that should
help bring any rain or storms to an end in these areas. Relatively
drier should continue to overspread north and central Georgia
overnight into Sunday. Forecast dewpoints are in the upper 60s,
rather than the 70s, to emphasize the "relatively" drier. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Sunday across the area,
but rain rates will be a bit less of a concern given lower PWATs,
which should lower the flash flood risk and prevent need for any
extension of the Flood Watch.

Otherwise, cloud cover and rain today will make for some seasonably
cool temperatures for August, with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s across much of north and central Georgia. Lows tonight will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs Sunday are a bit warmer, but
still seasonable, in the low to mid 80s.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Key Messages:

       - Drier and cooler weather expected through Thursday

       - Isolated rain and thunder chances may return by the end
         of next week.

Discussion:

A broad trough will be in place over much of the eastern CONUS at
the start of the long term. The trough will continue to deepen and a
reinforcing shot of cooler, drier air will filter into the region on
Monday into Tuesday. A strong surface high will gradually build
across the Central CONUS extending and eventually migrating over the
Southeast through the work week. As a result below normal
temperatures and dry weather conditions are forecast for North and
Central Georgia from Monday through Thursday. Forecast high
temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 80s (70s in
northeast GA) on Monday trending down to the upper 70s to low 80s by
mid-week and persisting through the end of the week. Forecast low
temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s through the week.
Interestingly enough, many locations will be within 5 degrees of
record low temperatures for late August! Needless to say, this will
be a welcomed change from the warm and wet weather we have been
experiencing recently.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Mix of MVFR/IFR cigs in place across all TAF sites this morning.
Vsbys are also MVFR or approaching it in some areas. Expect this
to remain for next several hours. Some BR or -DZ has been noted at
some sites, which also will continue for next few hours. Cigs
should improve to at least MVFR at most locations by 15Z. SHRA
expected this afternoon in 18-01Z period. Small chance of thunder,
but too small to warrant continued inclusion in metro TAF sites.
Cigs are a bit uncertain tonight as to whether or not they will be
in place or scatter. Continued to lean towards BKN IFR with this
issuance. Winds will be on east side through period, 4-9 kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...


Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          77  66  84  66 /  70  20  30  10
Atlanta         81  69  84  67 /  70  30  40  10
Blairsville     78  63  80  58 /  60  40  60  10
Cartersville    83  68  86  64 /  70  40  40   0
Columbus        85  71  87  69 /  70  40  40   0
Gainesville     78  66  84  64 /  70  30  40  10
Macon           81  70  86  69 /  80  30  30  10
Rome            84  69  86  63 /  70  40  40   0
Peachtree City  81  69  85  65 /  70  40  40   0
Vidalia         82  71  86  70 /  80  50  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for GAZ039-050-051-060>062-
072>076-082>086-094>098-105>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Lusk