597
FXUS62 KFFC 061842
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

    - Isolated to scattered light showers ongoing across the area
      under overcast skies will continue into tonight amid breezy
      easterly winds.

    - Chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold
      frontal passage midweek, though accumulations will generally
      be less than a half of an inch.

    - Drier, more Fall-like conditions return late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Overall a somewhat quiet pattern occurring across Georgia today
and tomorrow ahead of the approaching cold front. Low level cloud
cover is prevalent over much of the area with some clearing over
parts of central Georgia generally south of Macon and Columbus.
Temps today were lowered as a result with NBM10 mixed in to more
accurately forecast the high temps in the mid 70s today with low
80s where the clouds have broken. Light showers are being observed
mainly over eastern GA with some filtering into the metro ATL
area. These should continue through the remainder of the afternoon
and evening similar to yesterday although more isolated in
nature. Wind gusts up to 20 mph are expected to continue through
the afternoon before tapering off overnight and only low end gusts
expected tomorrow. For tomorrow the troughing over the upper
plains will begin really pushing eastward with a cold front at the
surface approaching the far northern portions of Georgia Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning with precip chances elevated to
account for the expected linear shower/storm line. With the timing
of this line, it will be hard to get anything robust storm wise
and will likely stick with a just thunderstorms with the potential
for maybe one or two strong storms. CAPE values are currently
forecast in the 500 J/kg area which isn`t overly impressive and as
such SPC has only highlighted our area in general thunder.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The extended forecast starts off with a frontal boundary pushing
into NW GA Wed morning and slowly moving SE through the state. This
front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the area Wed and
Thu but not expecting much in the way of severe weather. The main
low pressure center associated with this front is centered of Quebec,
Canada  and the deeper moisture, better dynamics, and better
instability indices are also well north of the region. The tail end
of the frontal boundary sweeps through the area Wed and Thu so we are
not expecting much from it. We will have some warm temperatures
across the area ahead of this front for this time of year (80s to
near 90) which will help to mix things up and get some showers and
thunderstorms going. but the fact still remains that this front will
be moisture starved with rainfall totals expected in the 0.1 to 0.5
inch range through Thu. As this front moves through the state
another high pressure ridge builds in quickly behind the front
pushing into N GA Thu morning. This ridge becomes centered over the
eastern great lakes states Thu afternoon and doesn`t really build to
fast down into the southeastern U.S. This will allow the frontal
boundary to stall across south GA Thu night into FRi.  We could
still see some isolated showers Fri across central GA still being in
close proximity to the old frontal boundary.

By Fri afternoon/evening and wave along the tail end of the front
begins to develop and becomes a closed low center just off the
GA/Carolina coast by Sat morning. This low is expected to continue
to develop as it moves up the eastern seaboard through Sunday. If
this does happen this low center will wrap up quickly pulling whats
left of the old frontal boundary NE with it and allowing a drier
airmass to filter in to the state from the N/NW. So as of right now
it looks like we could see a near perfect October weather weekend
with mostly clear skies and cooler fall like temps.

By Thu the cooler airmass behind eh frontal boundary begins to push
into the state with highs mainly in the 70s expected Thu. Will see
some highs in the 60s and 70s Friday. These cooler temps continue into
the weekend with temps expected in the 70s to near 80 both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Clouds have been slow to lift to MVFR today but should get to low
end MVFR in the next hour. Expecting isolated showers again from
now until sunset with the best timing being 20-24z. Should see
ceilings lift to VFR overnight before decreasing again tomorrow
morning with IFR expected again before scattering out into the
afternoon ahead of the front. Wind gusts up to 20 mph are possible
through the evening.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on CIGS.
Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  79  66  82 /  30  10  10  40
Atlanta         66  82  68  83 /  20  10  20  30
Blairsville     61  76  62  75 /  20  10  50  50
Cartersville    66  84  67  83 /  20  10  40  30
Columbus        67  87  68  88 /  20  10  10  20
Gainesville     65  80  66  81 /  40  10  30  40
Macon           65  86  66  86 /  20  10   0  20
Rome            68  85  68  83 /  20  20  50  30
Peachtree City  64  84  66  85 /  20  10  10  30
Vidalia         67  87  67  89 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Hernandez