329
FXUS62 KFFC 172344
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
744 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A hot and muggy airmass remains in place, leading to heat
    index values reaching Heat Advisory criteria in portions of
    Eastern Georgia through this evening.

  - Scattered afternoon thunderstorms continue each day. Some may
    be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts, frequent
    lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

  - Hot and humid conditions will persist into next week with
    triple digit heat index values remaining likely for many
    areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Afternoon Showers and Storms:

A very humid and warm airmass remains parked across the region,
resulting in muggy dewpoints in the 70s and high PWAT values
around 2-2.2". The 12Z sounding at our office actually had a PWAT
value of 2.15", which is in the range of daily maximums on record
for this time of year. This high source of moisture, combined with
enhanced forcing and instability from a mid-level disturbance
over the area, will lead to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms
could be strong to severe, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. While this threat
will be possible across the area, the greatest risk will be along
and east of the I- 75 corridor, where higher instability and
forcing will be. We will have to watch closely for localized flash
flooding, as storms will have high rain rates and be slow-moving
with weak/convergent flow over the region. As per usual, urban,
mountainous, and poor- drainage areas will be the most at risk.

Rinse and repeat conditions on Saturday, with another quiet and
muggy start to the day, and scattered showers and storms
developing during afternoon. There will be slightly less forcing
as the mid- level disturbance slides west over Alabama, so
coverage of storms is likely to be lower than today. Still, with
plenty of moisture and instability in the area, a few strong to
severe storms will be possible, with the same threats as today`s
storms.

Heat Concerns Continue:

The very humid airmass will continue to lead to heat concerns
through the start of the weekend. Today, high temperatures will
climb into the low to mid 90s across most of the area, with heat
index values peaking in the 100-108F range. A Heat Advisory is in
effect through 8PM for portions of Eastern GA that will see the
highest values. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed for
parts of that area again on Saturday, as temperatures and heat
index values are expected to be pretty similar to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

By the time the weekend comes to a close, our chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will begin to lessen as a
ridge builds in, driving our temperatures up. In fact, high
temperatures are the only real thing of note through the long term
forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are expected every day
with apparent temperatures exceeding triple digits. By Wednesday,
a heat advisory may be needed for portions of the central and
eastern parts of the CWA as HI values exceed 105. Little in the
way of relief is expected during the overnight hours as temps only
fall into the low to mid 70s.

The models are suggesting the possibility of a dry cold front
towards the end of next week. We aren`t seeing any sign of
significant precipitation but some drier air from the NW as the
ridge breaks down may give us a temporary reprieve from the
humidity. It`s a long way to go though and plenty can change, so
plan for hot and humid for the days to come.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

TSRA has come to an end across most sites with CSG having TSRA
possible through the next hour. Skies begin to clear out overnight
before the cu field forms again tomorrow afternoon ~16-17z at
3-4kft. TSRA is again possible tomorrow afternoon with the best
timing between 19 and 23z like previous days. Winds expected to
remain out of the NW through the period.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on thunderstorms.
High confidence on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  93  74  93 /  10  20  20  40
Atlanta         75  92  75  92 /  20  20  10  50
Blairsville     68  85  68  85 /  20  40  10  60
Cartersville    73  92  73  92 /  30  30  10  50
Columbus        75  94  75  94 /  30  40  30  60
Gainesville     74  92  74  92 /  10  20  10  40
Macon           74  93  73  92 /  30  30  40  50
Rome            72  91  73  91 /  30  40  10  60
Peachtree City  73  92  73  92 /  30  30  10  50
Vidalia         75  95  74  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027-
035>039-047>051-059>062-072>076-084>086-097-098-111>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Hernandez