714
FXUS62 KFFC 041100 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers and storms today and tomorrow (Thursday).
   Widespread severe weather is not expected.

 - Cloud cover and rain will moderate temperatures, especially
   along and south of the I-85/I-20 corridors.

Infrared satellite imagery along with 500 mb heights and MSLP
contours depict a broad area of low pressure (inverted trough)
slowly advancing northward over north/central Florida this
morning. Showers and storms associated with this feature are quite
disorganized. As this feature meanders over southeast Georgia and
eastern South Carolina today, it will bring a feed of tropical
moisture inland from the Gulf and Caribbean. Scattered showers and
storms will move across the CWA from southeast to northwest
through the day. Increasing cloud cover may hinder
destabilization, but where there are breaks in the clouds,
SBCAPE/MUCAPE around 1000+ J/kg will be realized. PWAT will peak
at 1.8" to 2.0" (around the maximum value per FFC sounding
climatology for early June) roughly along and south of I-85/I-20.
Any storms that develop in this environment will be capable of
heavy rainfall, as well as gusty winds up to around 40 mph and
cloud-to-ground lightning. Temperatures today will only top out in
the lower 80s to mid-80s given the cloud cover and precip.
Isolated showers and storms may persist overnight into early
Thursday morning as the area of low pressure slowly tracks to the
northeast along the coast of the Carolinas.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this area of low
pressure a low chance (10%) of tropical development in the next 2
days. Regardless of further development into a more organized
systems, this feature will reinforce the feed of tropical moisture
across Georgia as it moves northeastward. As a result, scattered
showers and storms will occur again tomorrow and may get going
earlier in the day (potentially around mid-morning). A partly to
mostly cloudy sky will again keep temperatures capped in the 80s.
Slightly less cloud cover than today may allow for greater
instability to be realized tomorrow afternoon, but generally
speaking, we anticipate that severe storms will be far and few
between as progged mid-level lapse rates are meager.

As the area of low pressure shifts across the region through the
short term period, its circulation and precip processes will scour
out some of the remaining wildfire smoke over Georgia.

Martin


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Highlights:

    - Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms expected through
      the extended period.

    - Best severe storm potential Fri through Mon. SPC Slight Risk
      introduced for parts of N GA on Fri.

    - Near normal temperatures expected.

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be the norm for
the long term forecast. By Thu night there is a closed low center
over the Carolinas moving NE along the Atlantic seaboard. There is
also a frontal boundary extending from the Central Plains to the
Mid Atlantic states and it is sinking slowly southward into the
weekend. As the surface low over the Carolinas moves NE, near
zonal upper level flow sets up over GA keeping a decent amount of
moisture across the region. The frontal boundary sinks south into
N GA Sat morning and stalls somewhere across central GA Sat night.
This front stays fairly stationary through the beginning of next
week allowing shortwave after shortwave to move across the area
through day 7. No real changes expected to the warm, moist airmass
that will be in place over the southeast, so more scattered to
widespread shower and thunder chances are expected to continue
through Tues. With several disturbances forecast to pass through
the upper level flow and interacting with the frontal boundary
could result in enhanced storm coverage/intensity. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) still has a 15% risk area along the
expected frontal boundary for days 4 and 5. The area is still just
west of GA including parts of MS and AL but will need to monitor
this closely as days 4 and 5 become days 1 and 2. Additionally,
PWs stay in the 1 to 2 inch range with some 2.5 inch values
expected over the weekend and into Monday.

Forecast temperatures through the long term will hover neat
seasonal norms (give or take 3-5 deg). This will put highs mainly
in the 80s with some lower 90s across central GA. Lows will be in
the 60s to lower 70s.

01


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Cloud bases will gradually lower from southeast to northwest
through the morning and early afternoon. ATL may have a period of
MVFR cigs from ~15z to ~18z with VCSH. Prevailing -SHRA are
currently forecast to start at 18z with SCT MVFR clouds and low-
VFR cigs. All sites have a PROB30 for -TSRA in the afternoon and
early evening. MVFR/IFR cigs are expected tonight into early
Thursday morning, but uncertainty remains regarding if IFR cigs
make it far north enough to impact ATL and the other metro sites.
There is potential for LIFR cigs at MCN and CSG after ~07z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  65  83  66 /  50  30  50  10
Atlanta         82  67  84  69 /  60  30  50  10
Blairsville     80  61  82  62 /  40  30  50  10
Cartersville    85  65  86  67 /  50  30  40  10
Columbus        84  68  86  70 /  70  40  60  10
Gainesville     81  66  83  67 /  50  30  50  10
Macon           82  68  85  69 /  70  60  60  20
Rome            85  66  87  67 /  50  20  40  10
Peachtree City  82  66  84  67 /  70  30  50  10
Vidalia         81  70  86  70 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Martin