011
FXUS62 KFFC 021755
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
1255 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1243 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Rainfall is expected through this afternoon. Periods of heavy
   rainfall will be possible, especially overnight. 1-2" of rain
   expected for most areas.

 - Another wave of rainfall expected Thursday afternoon through
   Saturday. Potential for wintry precipitation remains low at
   this time. 1-3" of rainfall expected area-wide with the highest
   totals across SW GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1108 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A majority of the rain has moved east of the region this morning
with widespread mostly cloud to overcast conditions continuing
throughout the afternoon and evening.

As the front moves out, High pressure builds into the area from
the southern plains with a drier airmass moving in across the
region. This ridge becomes centered just W of the state across
AL/TN by 12z Wed keeping things dry through Wed night.

Expecting cold temps to push back in behind the front with low
temps tonight mainly in the 20s to lower 30s. Highs Wed will only
get up into the lower to middle 50s with some 40s across the N GA
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 1108 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

The benign and sunny weather on Wednesday will be short-lived.
Wednesday night into Thursday, shortwave ridge moves northeast
towards the Mid-Atlantic coast and southwesterly mid and upper
level flow will set up across the Southeast once again. Isentropic
lift will result in increasing cloud cover spreading from west to
east across the area into Thursday morning and will keep
temperatures slightly warmer and more mild. Highs on Thursday
will range from the upper 40s in far northwest Georgia to near 60
in east- central Georgia. During the daytime on Thursday, a strong
shortwave trough with connections on the Arctic side of the jet
is expected to move across the Northeast CONUS. This will nudge a
cold front southward towards north Georgia. Furthermore, as this
trough quickly swings away to the northeast, a surface high (1025+
mb) will set up over the Appalachians and push east. A CAD wedge
is then expected to develop along the lee side of the Appalachians
and spread into north Georgia late Thursday night into Friday.
Another shortwave will meanwhile traverse the southern branch of
the jet and along the southwesterly flow over our region Thursday
into Friday. With a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of the cold
front that nudged into the area, a surface low associated with the
shortwave is likely to develop over the northern Gulf and move
northeastward into the forecast area.

Isolated light showers could enter the western portion of the CWA as
early as mid-day Thursday. Precipitation will increase in
coverage and spread eastward, and is expected to become widespread
by Friday morning through much of the day. By early Saturday,
rain chances appear that they will gradually trail off from
northwest to southeast as the cold front begins to advance through
the area, with chance PoPs forecast in north Georgia and likely
PoPs forecast in central Georgia. Uncertainty remains in the
ensemble guidance with respect to the overall strength of this
system moving through the forecast area, which impacts how far
north overrunning moisture will be able to extend and ultimately
where the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up. At this time, this
axis is forecast to be in south-central Georgia, to the south of
Columbus to Macon. Here, totals of around 2" are forecast, with
progressively lower totals further north.

As moisture overspreads the wedge and rain falls through, latent
cooling processes could serve to reinforce the dome of cold air
underneath the wedge. While this setup has commonly led to wintry
weather in north Georgia, it is early in the season and we may not
be quite able to tap into cold enough temperatures yet. Furthermore,
guidance continues to favor a slightly weaker surface high to the
northeast, which will lead to a weaker wedge and cold air damming.
As a result, temperatures even in the highest elevations of far
north Georgia are forecast to only drop into the mid 30s on Friday
and Saturday mornings, which would favor a cold rain across the
area. Still, the evolution of the shortwave over the northeast
and following surface high to the northeast will need to be
monitored. A deeper shortwave and stronger surface high would lead
to a stronger wedge with higher wintry precipitation probabilities.
For now, the chances of a wintry solution occurring continue to
be trending lower.

Uncertainty also remains with respect to the movement of the front
and when precipitation will move south and east out of the forecast
area. Some ensemble members indicate the front clearing the area as
early as Saturday morning, while others slow the progression of the
front later into Saturday. Either way, widespread rainfall is
expected over a multi-day period with 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
area-wide with higher totals across southern areas and lower
totals to the north near the Tennessee state line.

By Sunday, long range guidance indicates a shortwave dropping
from the Great Plains towards the Tennessee Valley region. A
surface low developing ahead of this shortwave could have the
potential to bring another round of rainfall to north Georgia on
Sunday. However, there is ample model disagreement at this time
about how this system will develop and evolve, with PoPs still
being capped at slight chance on Sunday and Sunday night to
account for the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

A lot of IFR CIGs remain across the region as drizzle is slow to
move out. A lot of MVFR CIGs remain upstream. Vis has seen
significant improvement over the last few hours. CIGs will slowly
improve to MVFR this afternoon. After sunset, some low (MVFR) CIGs
will linger through the night and morning hours. Northwesterly
winds will gust up to 20 knots late this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence in all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          31  51  32  53 /   0   0   0  20
Atlanta         30  51  34  51 /   0   0   0  20
Blairsville     24  50  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    25  51  29  50 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus        30  55  34  55 /   0   0   0  40
Gainesville     32  51  34  53 /   0   0   0  20
Macon           30  54  31  57 /   0   0   0  30
Rome            29  55  32  54 /   0   0   0  20
Peachtree City  26  53  30  52 /   0   0   0  30
Vidalia         36  56  35  59 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRX
LONG TERM....MRX
AVIATION...MRX