677
FXUS62 KFFC 191830
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Satellite remains clear this afternoon for areas along the I-20
corridor and southward. High level cirrus remains over portions of
northern Georgia but no real impacts. Temps in the upper 60s to
low 70s will warm maybe a couple more degrees but highs today are
expected to be in the low 70s for much of the area. Winds gusts up
to 20mph have been observed but expecting those to calm overnight.

Tomorrow we`re expecting much of the same weather. NBM ran a bit
warm for the dewpoints today so have mixed in a bit of lower
guidance to account for that and also did the same for tomorrow`s
forecast. Will need to keep an eye on the RH values tomorrow for
any fire weather concerns, but currently RH values between 25 and
30% are just above criteria for a fire danger statement. Will of
course keep reevaluating. Winds should be less gusty tomorrow
maxing out at 15mph. Dry conditions remain through the
foreseeable future.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Key Message

 - Dry weather and above average temperatures are expected in
Georgia through next weekend.

The Workweek & Next Weekend:

All of the ensembles favor dry conditions and above average
temperatures in Georgia through next weekend. Thus no hazardous
weather is expected in the region this week. These conditions will
be driven by upper level ridging and surface high pressure. An upper
level trough moving through the Great Lakes may lead to some
weakness in this pattern Thursday and Friday. However by next
weekend the ensemble consensus favors the return of a weather
pattern driven by upper level ridging and surface high pressure. A
frontal passage should occur Thursday or Friday as the trough moves
by to our north, but all indicators favor a dry frontal passage.

Due to no significant changes in the model guidance our forecast
remains unchanged. Temperatures should gradually rise through
Wednesday, by which point high temperatures will largely be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Some cooling may occur with the late week
frontal passage but for now significant temperature declines are
unlikely. It is worth noting that the spread between the 25th and
75th percentiles of the NBM temperature guidance increases to 6-9
degrees Friday and Saturday (up from 2-3 degrees between Monday and
Thursday). Our forecast highs through Saturday remains close to the
NBM 50th percentile (70s-80s). Widespread overnight lows in the 40s
should occur Monday morning. Then higher surface dewpoints should
contribute to slightly warmer low temperatures (50s) for most of the
region between Wednesday and Saturday.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Clear conditions continue this afternoon into evening with
easterly winds. Gusts around 15-20kt are likely this afternoon
before lowering overnight. Similar conditions are expected
tomorrow with winds out of the northeast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High confidence on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          44  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         48  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     42  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    42  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        48  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     46  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           45  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            41  77  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  43  76  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         48  78  50  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Hernandez