315
FXUS62 KFFC 211840
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Tropical Storm Bertha will make slow westward progress across
    the northern Gulf over the next few days but will bring no
    direct local impacts.

  - Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase from Wednesday
    into late week as a frontal boundary stalls across the area,
    bringing the risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

  - High temperatures will trend downward by late week as the front
    settles into north Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Interplay between deep, tropical moisture streaming off of Tropical
Storm Bertha (and its eventual remnants) and an approaching cold
front will drive sensible weather over the next few days. As alluded
to in the previous forecast, today will largely be transitional as
key features settle into place. An expansive cu field has developed
across north and central Georgia, and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms embedded within banding on the periphery of Bertha
will translate very nearly due north this afternoon. Rain rates on
the order of 1-2" per hour (and perhaps up to 3" in pockets) have
been observed, but comparably quick storm motions (20-30 mph) should
preclude much more than nuisance flooding this afternoon. Most
locales north of I-20 will remain dry.

Moving into Wednesday proper, diurnally-enhanced convection will
develop into the afternoon, with coverage bolstered by lift supplied
from the aforementioned approaching cold front. PWATs are progged to
surge above 2" (approaching daily maximums climatologically), enough
to support locally torrential rainfall in the heaviest showers and
thunderstorms that form. Both HiRes and global model guidance
suggests that redevelopment will occur along the plume of moisture
being advected atop the stalling front -- expected to be oriented
roughly parallel to the I-20/I-85 connector. The potential for
training/back-building along with high rain rates has prompted WPC
to hoist a Slight (level 2 out of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall
Wednesday through Thursday morning. Current thinking is that flash
flooding is unlikely to be widespread, but quick responses are
possible in areas that receive multiple deluges, and chances will
increase after dark.

Owing to progressively increasing cloud cover/storm chances, highs
today are a tick cooler than yesterday, and tomorrow will be just a
few degrees cooler still (relatively speaking) for the northern half
of the forecast area. Highs will rise into the upper-80s to mid-90s
90s this afternoon, and into the mid-80s to lower 90s (and mid-90s
for far southeast central Georgia most likely to be unaffected by
convection) on Wednesday. Lows remain warm, in the low-to-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For the back half of the work week a front will stall out across the
south, temperatures remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s but rain
cooled afternoons will give the northern part of the CWA a break
from the heat. Chances of afternoon thunderstorms will continue into
the weekend and thanks to Tropical Storm Bertha`s influx of moisture
from the gulf some of those storms may be extremely efficient rain
producers. The concern for flash flooding will continue through the
weekend as PW values remain on the high side of climo
averages.

By the time the weekend ends, the front will shift off and Bertha
will be nothing more than a memory. Conditions will largely return
to what we`ve been experiencing for most of the summer with a slight
chance for afternoon thunderstorms and temperatures in the upper 80s
and lower 90s. Heat risk concerns seem to creep into the forecast
again by this time next week, but a lot can change between now and
then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Primarily SCT-BKN MVFR to low-VFR conds into the aftn, with cigs
deteriorating to BKN low-MVFR (and perhaps IFR for CSG) by
daybreak on Wednesday. Very low-end chc for isold TSRA this aftn
from 20-23Z for ATL/PDK/AHN, and higher for CSG/MCN. Heaviest pcpn
may be accompanied by MVFR vsbys in BR. Winds will be nearly due
S for much of the day, generally favoring SSE at 7-11kts thru 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence afternoon TSRA chances.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  91  74  88 /   0  40  40  70
Atlanta         75  90  75  88 /   0  50  40  70
Blairsville     69  83  68  81 /  10  70  70  90
Cartersville    75  91  73  87 /   0  40  60  80
Columbus        76  92  76  92 /  10  60  20  50
Gainesville     75  90  74  85 /  10  50  60  90
Macon           74  91  75  91 /  10  40  10  40
Rome            75  91  72  86 /   0  40  60  70
Peachtree City  73  90  74  89 /  10  50  30  70
Vidalia         75  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...96