603
FXUS62 KFFC 201052
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
652 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Key Messages:

 - No direct wind or rain impacts from Hurricane Erin are expected
   in north/central Georgia.

 - Scattered thunderstorms are most likely in north and west
   Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce
   gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

As the morning begins, high pressure ridging remains in place along
the Appalachians and in north Georgia. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin is
currently about 500 miles to the east of Daytona Beach. Erin will
continue northward today, turning towards the northeast and further
away from Georgia tonight. As such, no direct wind or rain impacts
from Erin are expected in north and central Georgia. Northeasterly
low level flow will continue over the forecast area within the weak
wedge over north Georgia and on the western side of Erin. Moisture
advection in the northeasterly flow will have dewpoints in the low
70s and precipitable water values between 1.75-2 inches. High
temperatures this afternoon will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s,
with lower temperatures in the higher elevations of the far
northeast.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of north and
west Georgia this afternoon, mainly along and north of the I-85
corridor ahead of cold front advancing through the Tennessee Valley
region. Locally higher chances will once again be possible in the
far northeastern mountains due to terrain influences. With SBCAPE
values are forecast to range from 1000-2000 J/kg in the peak heating
hours and the aforementioned PWATS, a few storms may become strong,
with gusty winds from water loading in downdrafts and along cold
pools generated from collapsing storms. Locally heavy rain will also
be possible with any stronger storms that develop. Development of
additional storms will also be possible along the leading edge of
these cold pools. Weak mid-level subsidence on the west side of Erin
is anticipated to somewhat suppress diurnal convection on
Wednesday afternoon in east-central Georgia.

By Thursday, the wedge pattern will erode as the weakening frontal
boundary gradually advances south and east into the forecast area.
Meanwhile, weak mid to upper level subsidence may persist on the
back side of Erin well to its southwest. Scattered thunderstorms
will be possible once again ahead of the frontal boundary during the
afternoon, though the subsidence could once again inhibit coverage
in southeastern portions of the forecast area. Though it appears
surface winds will remain light, there is the potential for weak
surface convergence where with NW winds behind the front and NE
winds ahead of the front and on the back side of Erin. While this
could enhance the convective potential and coverage, uncertainty
remains on where exactly this could occur, which will depend on the
movement and position of the boundary and the intensity of Erin. In
any case, widespread severe weather or flooding concerns are not
expected on Thursday.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Key Messages:

    - A series of frontal passages will support scattered to numerous
      thunderstorms and cooler-than-average highs through the
      weekend.

    - Much drier air filtering in to start the week next week will usher
      in a taste of False Fall.

Moving into Friday and the start of the extended range, Hurricane
Erin is forecast to be churning offshore of the Mid Atlantic. Having
phased with a digging mid-level trough, it will continue to sweep to
the northeast and away from ECONUS as the trough lifts and exits the
Eastern Seaboard.

As it does so, much of the Southeast will remain in a relative
weakness in mid-level flow (a ridge to the west and Erin to the
east) through Saturday. Given benign north/northeasterly flow aloft,
the primary catalyst for our increasing rain chances to round out
the week will be a cold front stalling out along the northern Gulf
coast/Florida panhandle through the better part of the weekend. With
subpar shear and unimpressive lapse rates, none too concerned with
chances for widespread severe weather, and any storms that form will
trend toward garden-variety summertime (quick pulses, locally heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, gusty winds). Remnant outflow
boundaries from the previous day`s convection are likely to serve as
a local focus for enhanced convective development/perhaps some quasi
-organization.

To round off the weekend and kick start the work week, a stronger
cold front riding along the leading edge of a much broader mid-level
trough axis will trek southeastward across the forecast area. A much
drier, continental airmass will settle in on its heels,
characterized by dewpoints plunging into the 50s to lower 60s
areawide by early Tuesday. Rain chances will fizzle out (<15% on
Monday and Tuesday), and a period of bonafide (but ultimately
fleeting) False Fall is likely. CPC guidance suggests below average
temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day ranges, so enjoy it while
it lasts! If dewpoints wiggle any lower, there`s nontrivial
potential for some very early season fire weather concerns on
Tuesday. Will need to continue to monitor any changes in model
guidance.

Highs through the extended will generally range from near 80 to the
lower 90s areawide, with the potential for afternoon temperatures in
just the mid-to-upper 70s becoming more numerous for portions of
north Georgia on Monday and Tuesday post-stronger cold front.
Morning lows will dip into the 60s to lower 70s, and the mid-to-
upper 50s are possible for large swaths of north Georgia on Tuesday
and Wednesday morning.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected over the ATL metro area this morning
until lifting and being replaced by a scattered cu field around
030-040. IFR level clouds and patchy fog with visibility
restrictions of 3-5SM will also be possible underneath until 13Z.
Scattered storms are expected in north and portions of west
Georgia during the afternoon and early evening, with a PROB30 from
18-23Z at CSG at 21-01Z at ATL. Winds today will be mainly NE at
4-7 kts today, though could flirt with near N at ATL during the
mid to late afternoon. Winds will shift to NW around 01Z and
decrease to 5 kts or less. Patchy fog and scattered low clouds
will be possible on Thursday morning in areas that see precip
later today.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  71  91  71 /  20  10  30  40
Atlanta         90  73  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
Blairsville     85  66  85  66 /  60  20  40  20
Cartersville    92  71  91  70 /  40  20  30  10
Columbus        92  74  94  73 /  40  10  40  30
Gainesville     90  71  90  70 /  30  20  40  30
Macon           92  73  94  72 /  10  10  30  30
Rome            93  71  90  69 /  40  20  20  10
Peachtree City  91  71  92  71 /  30  10  30  20
Vidalia         92  74  94  73 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...King