044
FXUS62 KFFC 221137
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
637 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...


.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 330 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

 - Dry pattern through Tuesday with cool nighttime temps

 - Patchy frost likely tonight and Saturday night

 - Unseasonably warm max temps Sunday through Thursday

 - Next chance for rainfall mid-to-late week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

No significant weather or forecast concerns expected through the
short term period.

Thick cloud cover continues to push through far north Georgia but
so far no reports or webcam images of any snowfall. Could see some
flurries or very light snow showers in far NE counties, but
outside of elevations above 3000ft where a trace of snow may cover
parts of the ground, no accumulations are expected.

Another windy day today with very cool temps, especially at
elevations above 3000ft where winds will gust to 35 mph and temps
will remain in the 30s. Winds should not be as strong as
yesterday with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Lows tonight and
Saturday night will be near or below freezing over much of north
and west Georgia with widespread frost likely both nights. Growing
season has ended so no frost or freeze products will be issued.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

We start the long term on Sunday with weakly northwesterly flow at
the mid-levels, and a retreating surface high pressure system
centered across the Deep South -- sufficient to support warm and dry
conditions to finish off the weekend. Moving into Monday and the
work week, mid-to-upper flow becomes more nearly quasi-zonal, and is
currently progged to linger through mid-week. Surface features will
do much of the heavy lifting as far as reintroducing rain chances.
By late Monday/early Tuesday, a broad cold front extending from a
strong surface low will be making its way into northwest Georgia.
Chances for showers will increase for areas north of a line
extending from Columbus to Macon through early afternoon Tuesday,
with the best frontal forcing fizzling out (as it tends to do)
before completely clearing the forecast area. As it stands, rainfall
totals don`t look to break a quarter of an inch on Tuesday.

Best chances for an extended period of precipitation areawide look
to come on Thanksgiving Day, when yet another lobe of surface low
pressure is forecast to sweep across the Mid South. Will need to
keep an eye on totals as this system approaches the short term.

Highs each day through the extended will be in the upper-50s to
lower-70s (mid-70s possible on Tuesday for our far southern tier),
with more appreciable cooling expected following next Thursday`s
rain event. Lows initially in the 30s to near 40 on Sunday and
Monday morning will increase back into the 40s to lower-50s for the
remainder of the week.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Other than some FEW-SCT stratocu this morning around 4kft at KRYY
and far north Georgia airports, VFR conditions with no clouds
expected. WNW sfc winds will increase after 14Z to 13-18kts with
22-28kt gusts, decreasing some after 21Z then becoming 7-11kts
around sunset before increasing again after 15Z Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

High confidence on all elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  38  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         50  37  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     44  32  55  32 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    51  33  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        56  36  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     51  39  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           54  37  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            51  35  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  52  34  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         56  38  62  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SNELSON