676
FXUS62 KFFC 281755
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each day
   through the weekend. A few strong to severe storms will be
   possible in east Georgia this afternoon, which may produce
   damaging wind gusts.

 - Locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash
   flooding across portions of central Georgia today.

 - Seasonable temperatures are largely expected through the
   weekend, warming again early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A longwave trough is extending southward from southeast Canada
through the Midwest and as far south as northern Alabama/Georgia. At
the surface, a nearly stationary frontal boundary is stalled just to
the north of the Atlanta metro area. As the trough axis slowly
continues towards the Atlantic coast, it will give the frontal
boundary a push to the south. Low temperatures this morning will be
in the mid to upper 60s in areas north of the boundary and in the
low 70s in areas to the south. With the combination of wet soils
soils from yesterday`s rain, light winds, and ample low level
moisture, patchy fog is expected during the early morning hours,
most likely in areas along and south of I-85. As the frontal
boundary moves southward, weak cyclogenesis along it will
concentrate moisture further south towards the Gulf. Areas of
central and east Georgia will see precipitable water values of 2+
inches and dewpoints in the mid 70s while areas of northwest
Georgia will see precipitable water values drop to between
1.25-1.75 inches and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again this afternoon,
primarily along and south of the I-85 corridor where more ample
moisture will remain. Higher coverage of storms and mostly cloudy
skies will keep high temperatures limited to the upper 80s in
central Georgia, though they will only rise into the low 90s in
north Georgia. MUCAPE values are progged to peak between 1500-2500
J/kg this afternoon. In portions of east Georgia, there is expected
to be an overlap between this instability, strong low-level lapse
rates, and high PWATs. This will favor an increased risk for a few
severe storms capable of producing strong downburst winds,
warranting a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) from the SPC. Stronger
storms that occur will also be capable of producing locally heavy
rain, with some isolated pockets of 3 or more inches where these
storms are slow to move. While localized flooding cannot be ruled
out, considering the southward shift in the higher PWATs, this
heavier rainfall will be most likely to the south of the fall line
where soils will be more capable of handling these totals.

On Saturday, the upper level trough will lift northeast, leaving the
front stalled across the area. Upper level flow will be weak over
the Southeast on Saturday ahead of an approaching ridge set to build
in over the region during the long term period. Southeasterly flow
at the surface will spread Atlantic moisture further into the
forecast area and could drive the front back to the northwest.
Conditions will be similar on Saturday morning, with lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s and patchy fog during the early morning
hours. Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again on Saturday
afternoon, with highest chances to the south of the front. The
movement of the front will need to be monitored, as a
northwestward retreat of the front could thus lead to higher PoPs
returning to the far northwest portion of the state. The coverage
of storms and mostly cloudy skies will limit highs to the mid to
upper 80s across the majority of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Forecast guidance is generally in good agreement regarding the upper-
level pattern through the long-term period. A 500 mb ridge will
replace the current troughing on Sunday and remain in place through
midweek. Enough moisture advection along the western periphery of
the Bermuda High will promote daily chances for showers and storms,
but chances/coverage will be tamped down compared to the last couple
of days. Diurnally-driven instability will be plentiful, but beneath
a stout ridge, a lack of deep-layer wind shear and mid-
/upper-level disturbances means that organized convection is
unlikely. Should the ridge not end up as strong/expansive as
currently projected, then disturbances could lead to an uptick in
coverage of storms on any given day for parts of the area. Beneath
the ridge, light steering winds could mean slow-moving storms and
thus localized heavy rainfall concerns. Otherwise, typical
summertime storm hazards of frequent lightning and gusty winds can
be expected in strong storms.

The combination of the ridge and ample moisture also means
increasing heat index values. By early to middle of next week,
widespread values of 100 to 104 degrees are expected. Should 105+
degree heat index values be widespread enough, Heat Advisories may
be needed for parts of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Lingering cloud cover over MCN and CSG has pushed back the timing
of TSRA to 20z while the lack of morning cloud cover over the
metro ATL sites has pushed the timing of TSRA to 18z. Cu field
along I-85 is healthy and producing isolated to scattered
shra/tsra. This trend should continue through ~00z tonight,
potentially lingering through 02-03z. NW winds over the northern
TAF sites with SE winds over the southern two sites. Winds turn E
for all TAF sites ~12z tomorrow. Low clouds are possible again
~10-14z tomorrow at ~600-800ft. Chance for TSRA again tomorrow
afternoon ~18-23z.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on low CIGS.
Medium to high confidence on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  68  86  69 /  40  50  40  20
Atlanta         90  71  87  72 /  40  40  30  30
Blairsville     85  63  83  64 /  40  20  40  10
Cartersville    91  69  90  70 /  20  20  20  20
Columbus        89  72  89  72 /  40  30  30  20
Gainesville     89  68  85  70 /  40  40  40  20
Macon           86  70  86  71 /  30  30  40  30
Rome            90  68  90  69 /  20   0  10  10
Peachtree City  90  69  87  70 /  40  40  30  20
Vidalia         87  72  85  72 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Hernandez