170
FXUS62 KFFC 181849
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Key Messages:

 - Warm afternoon temperatures continue Tuesday.

 - Afternoon precip chances begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and
   continue into the extended period.

Mid to upper level ridge continues across the area through the short
term. Weak surface ridging begins to develop over the MId Atlantic
states today pushing down the eastern seaboard tonight setting up a
wedge across the area. This wedge is nowhere near as strong as the
one we saw a few weeks ago that kept the area overcast and temps in
the 70s for a week. This wedge is acting as more of a steering
mechanism helping to keep Hurricane Erin off the GA/Carolina coast.
By Tuesday afternoon, Erin will be positioned about 600 miles SE of
the GA coast and will be turning N/NE through Wed morning.
We will see mainly easterly flow and some increased moisture with
this wedge but it will only help to increase afternoon convective
coverage Tue afternoon. High temperatures within this wedge feature
(NE GA) are forecast to be limited to the mid to upper 80s, with
highs elsewhere in the low to mid 90s. Low temps tonight and Tuesday
night will be mainly in the 70s with 60s across the NE GA mountains.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Key Messages:

 - Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue on
   Wednesday and Thursday.

 - A downward temperature trend and higher rain chances are
   expected to close out the week.

Wednesday & Thursday:

This portion of the week will be dominated by the presence of
Hurricane Erin along the East Coast of the U.S. No direct impacts
(in terms of heavy rain or strong winds) are expected from Erin in
north or central Georgia. Instead Erin will join forces with an upper
level ridge over the Central U.S. to produce northeasterly flow
across all levels of the atmosphere in Georgia. Precipitable water
(PW) values should climb as Erin passes, but the fetch of moisture
moving into our region from the northeast should be modified by
continental air. This should lead to PW values between 1.6 and 1.9
inches and afternoon surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s
Wednesday and Thursday. When combined with weak mid level
subsidence, these conditions may suppress diurnal convection to some
degree. Differential heating over the higher terrain of the
mountains should bring slightly higher afternoon thunderstorms
chances to northeast Georgia both days compared to surrounding
areas. A weak frontal boundary on Thursday could also increase
convective coverage. Mid level lapse rates will remain modest this
week (700-500 mb of 5.5 C/km or less) and this should combine with a
lack of shear to restrain storm intensity. Thus severe weather is
not expected Wednesday or Thursday. Flooding is also unlikely due
the northeast flow (favoring quicker storm motions) and sub 2 inch
PW values. Thus the main concerns with any storms during this period
should be lightning and isolated gusts near 40 mph.

Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday should be near or slightly
above seasonal averages (by 0 to +5 degrees) despite the
northeasterly flow that my look like a traditional wedge front. This
should be driven by nearly steady 850 mb temperatures, good boundary
layer mixing and significant sunshine. Some uncertainty exists in
the temperature forecast on Thursday due to possible variations in
the strength of the potential cold front and degree of cloud cover.

Friday and the Weekend:

Moisture should consolidate over the Southeast on Friday, pushing PW
values back above 2 inches. This trend is broadly supported by the
EPS guidance and to a lesser degree by the GEFS. The rise in
available moisture should combine with higher afternoon dewpoints
(70s) to favor greater storm coverage. A cold front associated with
a trough tracking through Canada should also factor into the higher
storm chances this weekend. Modest lapse rates and the typical
summer time lack of wind shear should continue to hider the severe
weather potential this weekend. Weaker steering flow in the mid
levels could allow a limited flash flood risk to develop, but that
remains to be seen at this time.

Forecast temperatures begin to trend downwards on Friday, with below
average values favored (75% chance) for north and central Georgia
over the weekend. The current forecast leans towards afternoon highs
in the low to mid 80s this weekend. Some spread exists in the GEFS
and EPS guidance though, and this suggests some potential for
temperatures trend lower by a few degrees with later forecasts. The
primary driver of the temperature dip should be cloud cover, though
rainfall and the aforementioned cold fronts will also play a role

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR ceilings with east winds in the 5-10kt range through the
period. We will see some isolated -SHRA/-TSRA this afternoon but
they should not affect the TAF sites. We will see some better
chances of precip Tue afternoon so introduced a PROB30 into the
ATL TAF. No restrictions to VSBYs expected.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  88  70  89 /  10  40  10  20
Atlanta         74  90  73  91 /  10  40  10  20
Blairsville     68  83  66  85 /  20  50  10  50
Cartersville    73  92  72  92 /  10  40  10  30
Columbus        73  94  74  92 /   0  20  10  20
Gainesville     72  87  71  89 /  10  50  10  30
Macon           72  92  73  92 /   0  30  10  10
Rome            72  92  71  92 /  10  30  10  30
Peachtree City  72  92  71  91 /   0  40  10  20
Vidalia         72  93  73  92 /   0  30   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...01