235
FXUS62 KFFC 111042
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Key Messages:

    - Elevated rain chances will persist both today and tomorrow as
      deep tropical moisture overspreads the area. Locally heavy
      rainfall can be expected.

    - While cool easterly flow is coming to an end by Tuesday, high
      temperatures will remain below normal courtesy of widespread
      cloud cover.

This morning starts off with murky low clouds and drizzle across
much of the area as Atlantic moisture continues to infiltrate
westward. Today will mark the end of our prolonged easterly wedge-
like pattern as the source high finally pushes offshore into the
western Atlantic and flow transitions southeastward. An inverted
trough extending from the northeast Gulf across northeast Florida
will progress farther northwestward into our area today as ridging
builds over the western Atlantic. As such, deep moisture
characterized by PWATs of 2 to near 2.5" will continue to overspread
the area today with scattered to numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms expected by afternoon into evening. While convection
will have fairly quick forward northwest motion today, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible given the moist, tropical airmass in
place, particularly if any training occurs. While clouds will keep
surface heating largely in check, instability will be marginally
higher this afternoon as compared to yesterday (MUCAPE 1000-1500
J/kg), so at least a few non-severe thunderstorms can be expected.

Widespread rainfall coverage will begin to trail off overnight,
though isolated scattered showers will likely linger into Tuesday
morning. The aforementioned subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will continue to expand westward on Tuesday, bringing a
return to southerly flow more typical of August. A weak shortwave
will lift northward around the western periphery of the ridge from
Alabama into western Georgia and bring even more widespread showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening, particularly
across the western two-thirds of the area. Anomalously high PWATs
will again bring the likelihood of locally heavy rainfall. Despite
the end of cool easterly flow, highs on Tuesday will again largely
be held below normal given widespread clouds and precipitation.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Key Messages:

    - Daily afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances through next week
      (highest chances Wednesday).

    - Temps returning to normal by mid to late week.

Discussion:

Much of the long term will be focused on the moist airmass in place
that will lead to temps returning to normal by mid to late week and
daily afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm chances into the
weekend. Starting off the long, we`ll see upper level ridging over
the eastern Gulf with a trough to our west over the plains. Rich
southwesterly flow over Georgia with small vort maxes pushing into
the area will also be a factor at play. By Wednesday we`ll see the
trough begin to dampen as it pushes eastward, ultimately staying
north of the area. As it approaches though the interaction zone
between this troughing and the ridging over the gulf will provide an
emphasis for increased rain chances especially in north Georgia
closer to the troughing. Into the end of the week and weekend, will
see again the ridging and sfc high pressure be the main pattern at
play with vort maxes pushing into the area resulting in lower (but
not nonexistent) rain chances (30-40%). Temps as a result of this SW
flow with the moist tropical airmass are forecasted to reach into
the upper 80s to low 90s which is more normal for this time of year.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Widespread IFR to patchy LIFR cigs will continue to affect TAF
sites through the morning hours before gradual improvement toward
MVFR by 16-17Z. -DZ and sct -SHRA are also likely this morning
with coverage of -SHRA increasing further during the afternoon as
well as potential for iso -TSRA through 00-01Z. Cigs are expected
to drop to IFR and LIFR again by 04-07Z Tuesday. E winds will
trend SE by afternoon with speeds primarily 5-10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on cigs and SHRA/TSRA timing.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  70  83  71 /  70  60  80  50
Atlanta         84  72  84  72 /  70  50  80  50
Blairsville     80  67  80  68 /  60  40  90  60
Cartersville    87  72  86  71 /  50  40  80  50
Columbus        87  73  88  72 /  80  40  80  30
Gainesville     82  71  83  71 /  60  50  80  60
Macon           86  72  88  72 /  80  50  70  20
Rome            87  72  86  71 /  40  30  80  50
Peachtree City  85  71  86  71 /  70  40  80  40
Vidalia         87  73  91  74 /  70  30  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...RW