621
FXUS62 KFFC 250547
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
147 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A Flood Watch remains in effect through late tonight for
    portions of north Georgia.

  - The threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will
    remain elevated across north Georgia through Saturday in the
    presence of a stalled front.

  - Heat concerns rebound in earnest next week with an upward
    trend in temperatures and heat index values by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Very messy forecast and environment today with multiple interactions
at play. WPC`s MD from this morning really laid out the situation
well so take a look at that. There is currently a CAD boundary over
the northeastern portions of the area where on surface analysis you
can see easterly winds. This cuts right through Hall County near
Gainesville which has been the focus for the intense rainfall
amounts we have seen so far. Along with this there is the stalled
frontal boundary through northern Georgia and into the NW which has
been the focus for the additional activity over the metro and
further north. This interaction between the CAD boundary and the
frontal boundary has enhanced the precipitation over the Hall county
area into Gwinnett, Forsyth and northern Fulton resulting in
widespread 3-5" of rainfall with areas up to 6-8" as well.

As we push into the afternoon and evening, a piece of energy swings
down in the flow which is helping enhance these showers and
thunderstorms resulting in more widespread activity. Overall cloud
cover has been less today with pockets of clearing throughout the
morning. These two together are resulting in an environment
conducive to more thunderstorms vs the showers we saw the past
couple of days which will allow for convectively enhanced activity
to continue through the evening hours. Another 1-3" inches is
possible across the flood watch with locally higher amounts possible
with eyes definitely on the Hall county area. The flood watch goes
through midnight tonight which should capture the remainder of the
flooding threat although some river flooding could linger into the
early hours of Saturday depending on how the evening totals stack
up.

Pushing into overnight into tomorrow morning the CAMs are trying to
indicate a push of rainfall sweeping down from the north as the
front begins to push south of the area and flow begins to switch to
the NW. Confidence is low in impacts for this particular rainfall
mostly just because it will be dependent on this evenings activity.
For tomorrow afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity should push
into central Georgia where the front looks to keep pushing south but
with the movement we should see more limited impacts.

Temperatures have stayed in the mid to upper 80s today with heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s. Tomorrow, mid to upper 80s are
again expected with cloud cover over the area as well as the wedge
in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

With mid-level ridging taking up residence across the western half
of the country, the Southeast is poised to enter a regime of
northwesterly flow that lingers through the entirety of the extended
range. Initially, this will drive a lower PWAT airmass into the area
that may provide some relief from the frontally-forced doldrums
we`ve been in over the past several days. However, a pattern
characterized by deep, persistent northwesterly flow sets the stage
for diurnally-enhanced convection forced by ridge riders -- any
disturbances rounding the outer edge of the governing ridging. Given
drier mid-levels (and thus steeper lapse rates), any features sent
southward along the eastern edge of the ridge would serve to locally
organize convection, potentially supporting (at least) daily
marginal severe concerns if MCSs are able to be maintained, driven
primarily by wind/downburst risks as dry air is entrained. Timing
and intensity will be heavily dependent upon the aforementioned
features meandering through mid-level flow. That being said, would
not be surprised to see an uptick in PoPs for Monday and Tuesday
afternoon/evening as we enter the purview of HiRes guidance, which
is better suited to attempt to resolve any mesoscale precipitation
features.

Highs will be in the 90s for most through the long term, with heat
index values surging back into the triple digits. Cannot rule out
the necessity of a Heat product(s) (likely an Advisory) by midweek
as moisture rebounds in tandem with heat peaking.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Low clouds are expected through the overnight hours with brief
periods of IFR and prevailing MVFR. SHRA remains possible after 07Z.
Afternoon TSRA remains low confidence, but the best chances come
after 18Z. Winds will be WNW at 5-10kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium to Low on IFR and TSRA
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  71  93 /  30  20  10   0
Atlanta         73  89  74  93 /  40  30   0   0
Blairsville     65  84  65  87 /  30  20   0   0
Cartersville    71  89  71  93 /  50  30  10   0
Columbus        75  92  75  96 /  20  50  10   0
Gainesville     71  89  71  92 /  30  20   0   0
Macon           73  91  73  94 /  20  40  10   0
Rome            71  89  71  93 /  50  30   0   0
Peachtree City  72  89  72  93 /  40  40  10   0
Vidalia         75  93  73  95 /  10  70  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Vaughn