523
FXUS62 KFFC 261755
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Key Messages:

    - Diurnally-enhanced scattered showers and thunderstorms are
      expected to develop this afternoon and evening.

    - Some storms could become severe with a primary risk for
      strong downburst wind gusts.

    - A Heat Advisory is in place through 8 PM for parts of
      northwest Georgia.

    - Additional thunderstorms are again expected on Friday
      afternoon and evening.

Ongoing widespread thunderstorms across central and western Georgia
early this morning will gradually diminish through the predawn hours
as any lingering instability is consumed. Quieter and drier
conditions will then persist through early afternoon as the
atmosphere will take awhile to recover from the widespread storms
early this morning. However, ample instability is again forecast to
develop by late afternoon with MLCAPE values on the order of 2500-
3500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within
this environment. While forecast lapse rates are not as extreme as
Wednesday`s environment, there will still be sufficient support for
at least a few severe thunderstorms with a primary risk for strong
downburst wind gusts as well as a few instances of hail up to size
of dime to quarter size. For this reason, SPC has maintained a
Marginal (level 1 of 5 risk) for the entire forecast area. Storms
could persist into the late evening, though unlike tonight they
should diminish fairly rapidly thereafter.

As far as temperatures are concerned, forecast highs should be a
couple of degrees below Wednesday`s values for most of the area. It
will still be hot out there, though, with heat index values peaking
in the 99-103 range for most of us. A Heat Advisory is in effect for
parts of northwest Georgia where heat index values are more likely
to nudge 105 degrees this afternoon for a more sustained period.
Elsewhere, brief periods of heat index values at or over 105 are
possible, though developing late afternoon convection should tend to
keep these readings fairly transient. Still, it`s a good idea to
take heat precautions as conditions will remain on the hot side.

On Friday, little change in the overall pattern and environment is
expected. With the area remaining in southwest flow around the
periphery of the western Atlantic high, abundant diurnally-drive
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are again
expected. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will again be
possible with an attendant strong downburst wind potential.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue in
Georgia through next Thursday.

 - Temperatures will gradually fall back to average levels (88-92
degrees) for early July by the start of next week.

This Weekend & Early Next Week:

The subtropical high over the western Atlantic will be the driving
force behind Georgia`s weather over the weekend and through most of
next week. Our location on the western side of high will favor light
southwest flow and keep humidity levels at very summer like levels.
High temperatures in the low 90s this weekend should gradually drift
towards the upper 80s by the middle of the workweek. The strongest
subsidence associated with the ridge will remain over the Atlantic,
and this will allow diurnally driven convection to flourish in the
Southeast each day. Thus scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorm activity should be expected in Georgia through at least
next Thursday. Instability should be average each afternoon (MLCAPE
1000-2500 j/kg), promoting good updrafts with any storms. However
the usual lack of summer time wind shear (0-6 km shear below 15 kt)
and limited mid level lapse rates (near 5.5 C/km) should restrict
the potential for severe weather significantly.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions across the area but looking for convection to get
going in the next few hours. Should see another round of SHRA/TSRA
this afternoon and evening with the best chance for the TAF sites
happening around sunset (give or take an hour or two). Winds
should stay mainly out of the W-NW in the 5-10kt range but will
see some gusty winds to 30kt in and around any convective
activity. VSBYs expected to stay in the VFR range but like the
winds could see some MVFR VSBYs in and around the thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  70  91  70 /  50  30  60  40
Atlanta         95  71  92  73 /  50  40  60  40
Blairsville     90  65  87  65 /  60  30  70  40
Cartersville    95  69  92  70 /  50  40  60  40
Columbus        95  71  92  72 /  40  30  50  40
Gainesville     93  70  90  71 /  60  40  60  40
Macon           94  70  92  70 /  40  20  60  40
Rome            93  70  90  70 /  50  40  60  30
Peachtree City  94  68  92  70 /  40  30  60  40
Vidalia         93  71  93  71 /  40  20  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011-012-
019-020-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...01