421
FXUS62 KFFC 140247
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1047 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A weak line of thunderstorms continues to move through central
Georgia. The flooding threat has largely come to an end, but given
some areas are still seeing brief periods of heavy rain the flood
watch has been allowed to continue. There are no plans to continue
the flood watch at this time and it`ll be allowed to expire at
06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Key Messages:

 - A Flood Watch is out for the Mountains of north Georgia
   through 2 AM Thursday.

 - Isolated rainfall totals in excess of 4 inches are possible by
   Thursday morning, especially across northeast Georgia.

 - Monitor river and creek levels if you live in a flood prone
   part of north Georgia this evening and tonight.

Flooding Threat through Tonight:

Heavy rainfall and possible flooding are the primary forecast
concerns through tonight. A Flood Watch has been issued for the
portion of north Georgia with the greatest risk for flooding, though
a more limited flood threat does extend south into the Atlanta Metro
and central Georgia. The flood threat should peak between 6 PM and
midnight tonight.

The primary factors driving the threat for heavy rainfall this
evening are a low pressure system lifting north from Alabama and a
weak trough draped across the north Georgia mountains. The
interaction between these two features should lead to a zone of
convergence north of Interstate 20 this evening. As this area
develops PW values should increase above 2 inches, and the
combination of lift and ample available moisture could produce
hourly rain rates in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. This threat appears
most pronounced northeast of Atlanta and north of Athens. Given the
steeper terrain in this region and saturated soil conditions (due to
1 to 3 inches of rain yesterday) any prolonged period of high rain
rates could lead to flash flooding. The threat for prolonged higher
rain rates extends westwards into northwest Georgia as well. However
forecaster confidence in the correct setup occurring in this region
is lower. Both regions have are included in the current Flood Watch.
A lower risk for flooding will exist this evening and overnight for
the Atlanta Metro and central Georgia, due to both areas being
closer to the core of the low moving out of Alabama. We passed on
issuing a Flood Watch for these areas due to more limited soil
saturation and more progressive expected storm motions. Isolated
rainfall totals in excess of 4 inches are possible by sunrise on
Thursday (especially north of Interstate 20), though for most locals
amounts in the 0.25 to 1.00 inch range are favored.

Expectations for Thursday:

The trough of low pressure that will bring isolated heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms to the region this evening will shift into the
Carolinas on Thursday. In its wake west-northwest flow and weak mid
level subsidence should develop across Georgia. Unlike in the fall
or winter months, when northwest flow would indicate drier
conditions, the airmass advected into the state will remain tropical
in nature, and PW values should continue to hover in the 1.7 to 2.0
inch range through Thursday. Thus additional showers and storms can
be anticipated with diurnal heating Thursday afternoon. The mid
level subsidence should be a limiting factor for both storm coverage
and timing. Hence, rainfall should be less widespread (compared to
today) and the peak in convection may occur in the late afternoon or
evening. The exception may be the mountains were differential
heating over the higher terrain could help showers and storms
redevelop during the early afternoon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Key Message:

 - Daily afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances through the
   beginning of next week.

Discussion:

The extended forecast continues with afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms expected each day. Precip chances will be less in
the extended from the short term with isolated to scattered chances
versus scattered to occasional (20% to 40% PoPs vs 40% to 80% PoPs).
Temps will also be back to near seasonal norms by Fri with highs
back to near 90 north, to the mid 90s across central GA. Not
expecting temps to get back up into the upper 90s to near 100 like
early last month but they will be warmer than last week. By Fri, the
upper level ridge becomes centered over central FL and the
Northeastern Gulf. This upper level ridge will keep deep moist west
to southwesterly flow over GA through the weekend with small vort
maxes pushing into the area. With day time heating and temps
expected to get back up to seasonal norms we will continue to see
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through day 7. This
upper level ridge weakens a bit through the weekend as it moves
slowly westward into the beginning of next week. This will help to
keep any storms that develop capped from becoming too strong or
severe through the middle of next week.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

TSRA chances will continue to decrease through the TAF period for
ATL. CIGS have been holding at low VFR and will likely drop to IFR
after 06Z. CIGS will be slow to recover through the morning, only
reaching low VFR again around 18Z. Winds out of the WSW will
gradually become NW through the night at less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium to High on IFR possibility.
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  89  72  89 /  30  40  60  40
Atlanta         73  89  72  89 /  40  70  60  40
Blairsville     69  84  67  84 /  80  60  70  60
Cartersville    72  89  72  90 /  50  60  70  40
Columbus        74  89  73  92 /  10  80  60  40
Gainesville     72  87  71  88 /  60  50  70  40
Macon           73  91  73  91 /  10  60  70  40
Rome            72  87  71  89 /  60  60  60  40
Peachtree City  72  89  72  90 /  30  80  60  40
Vidalia         74  93  75  91 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>023-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Vaughn