339
FXUS62 KFFC 070221
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1021 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025


.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
north Georgia, roughly along and north of I-20. Another cluster of
thunderstorms is approaching from east-central Alabama and will
move through west-central Georgia (including the Columbus metro
area) within the next couple of hours. With the loss of daytime
heating, the threat for severe weather has begun to diminish,
though a few storms could still be capable of producing gusty
winds and frequent lightning. PoPs are forecast to steadily
decrease after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Key Messages:

 - The highest severe weather threat this evening will occur in
   northwest Georgia between 6 PM and 2 AM.

 - A line of strong to severe thunderstorms may impact Georgia
  between 4 PM and 11 PM on Saturday, with damaging winds in west
  Georgia being the primary concern.

This Evening and Tonight:

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across
portions of Georgia through sunset. Then storm activity should
diminish over most of the state due to a loss of diurnal heating.
The exception should be northwest Georgia where a weak shortwave
will provide the necessary lift for continued storm activity.
Isolated strong storms could occur before 6 PM, but the peak in any
severe activity should be north of Interstate 85 during the 6 PM to
2 AM time window. Bulk shear (0-6 km) of 25 to 35 kt, MUCAPE values
in the 1200-2200 J/kg range and hodographs that lean towards the
linear, should support organized convection in the form of clusters
or bowing line segments. This should broadly favor isolated damaging
wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range as the main threat. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be considered for northwest Georgia at some
point this evening. Thunderstorms activity should diminish rapidly
after 2 AM.

Saturday`s Severe Outlook:

The primary change in the forecast for Saturday is the upgrade in
the SPC`s Severe Weather Outlook from Slight (Level 2 of 5) to
Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) for parts of west Georgia and Alabama. The
upgrade was made do to the increasing likelihood of an MCS with
damaging straight line winds after 4 PM on Saturday. The primary
threat should be gusts in the 50 to 70 mph range, though an brief
tornadic spin up is possible. Diurnally driven thunderstorms may
develop in the afternoon ahead of any MCS and there is small risk
that a couple of the could produce severe downbursts. The storms
associated with tomorrows severe MCS threat should develop along the
KS/OK border this evening, then they will progress rapidly to the
east along a well defined theta-e gradient tonight and Saturday
morning. Warm and humid conditions on Saturday, especially in
Alabama, but continuing into Georgia, will provide ample fuel for
vigorous updrafts. Per the HREF guidance, widespread MUCAPE values
in excess of 2000 J/kg are likely Saturday afternoon and evening.
This instabillity should combine with weak a shortwave and strong
cool pool development to further enhance storm organization. The
current Enhanced Risk area highlights the most likely track of any
MCS. However much deepens on the strength of the cold pool that
develops to our west. A very strong cold pool could drive the core
of the severe threat further south, while less organization could
allow storms to inch northwards. In either case, anyone with
afternoon or evening plans across west Georgia should monitor the
weather closely on Saturday.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

 - Daily rain and thunder chances to persist Sunday through at
   least Thursday of next week.

 - There remains a potential for severe thunderstorms on Sunday
   and Monday.

 - Near-normal temperatures (+/- 3 deg) through Thursday.

The long term forecast, Sunday through at least Thursday of next
week, looks to be largely unsettled with daily rain and thunder
chances as a result of several disturbances rounding the base of a
large upper low situated over the Upper MidWest. As we know,
defining specifics such as timing and placement of convection can be
tricky during a NW flow type pattern which is where we currently
find ourselves in...

On Sunday Morning, showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing in the
form of a cluster or MCS type feature as a shortwave and associated
low pressure system -- likely becoming occluded -- track through the
Ohio and TN Valleys. Some storms may be strong to severe as they
enter the area but may lose steam with the lack of heating. However,
the location of the frontal boundary and any remnant boundaries may
provide the focus for additional storm development later in the
afternoon into the evening on Sunday. This will largely depend on
how quickly things recover from morning activity. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has much of Central GA highlighted in a
Slight Risk area (Level 2 out of 5) during this time period.
Damaging winds will be the primary hazard for any storms Sunday
morning with damaging winds and an isolated hail threat if/when
storms materialize during the afternoon and evening.

We`ll have to see how far the frontal boundary makes it through the
area on Sunday as this will be a focus area for storm development on
Monday and possibly on Tuesday. Theta-e guidance suggests somewhere
in the vicinity of Interstates 20 and 85. The upper low over the
Upper MidWest will also be shifting east towards the Great Lakes and
may provide that extra lift need to get thunderstorms mainly during
the afternoon and evening both Monday and Tuesday. On thing to
monitor will be the threat for severe thunderstorms -- SPC maintains
a 15% risk area for Monday (currently Day 4) just to our west. Would
not be surprised to see a risk area depicted in their next update
for what would be Day 3 for portions of Central GA.

Heading into mid-week (Wednesday), the upper low lifts to the
northeast, weak ridging builds over the Central U.S and surface high
pressure begins to take up residence over portions of the Ohio and
TN Valley Regions. Daily rain and thunder chances look to be
diurnally enhanced (i.e. coincide with daytime heating). As you plan
for vacations, travel, outdoor activities, etc.  keep in mind that
frequent lightning, gusty erratic winds, and locally heavy rainfall
may accompany any storms regardless of severity. Stay weather aware!

Near-normal temperatures can be expected through the long term
period -- forecast highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. The
presence of clouds and/or convection could have an impact on
temperatures resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far north
and northwest Georgia, and will continue to move east over the
next few hours. As a result, there is a TEMPO for TSRA from 01-03Z
at ATL. MVFR to IFR level clouds and lowered visibilities between
4-6 SM may develop in the morning between 09-14Z in locations
that see rainfall this evening, though confidence is low on the
extent of any ceiling/visibility restrictions that could occur.
Winds will be W through the period, at 5-8 kts this evening and
overnight, then increasing to 8-12 kts with gusts of 18-22 kts
after 15Z on Saturday. Another round of thunderstorms is forecast
to enter the area in the mid to late afternoon on Saturday, moving
eastward through the evening. A PROB30 for TSRA is being carried
from 22-02Z at ATL on Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on Saturday morning lower cigs/vsbys and timing
of thunderstorms.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  89  70  89 /   0  10  20  30
Atlanta         71  90  72  88 /   0  20  40  50
Blairsville     60  84  64  82 /   0  40  50  40
Cartersville    66  89  69  88 /   0  50  30  40
Columbus        70  91  73  92 /   0  20  30  60
Gainesville     66  88  70  87 /   0  10  30  30
Macon           68  90  72  92 /   0  10  10  60
Rome            67  88  70  88 /   0 100  30  50
Peachtree City  65  89  70  88 /   0  20  30  60
Vidalia         72  90  74  93 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...King