496
FXUS62 KFFC 201102
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 517 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Key Messages:

  - Warm temperatures again today with highs in the mid 80s that
will limited by cloud cover. Only record high with any chance of
being challenged is Atlanta, though it stands at 88.

  - System moving in from the west will see cloud cover across the
area today and rain chances on the increase Monday across northern
GA as a front stalls to the north.

Forecast:

Cloud cover is in place across the CWA this morning as moisture
continues to advect into the SE ahead of an upper level wave
ejecting into the southern Great Plains. Rain is not anticipated
today, though cloud cover may stick around, especially in northern
Georgia. Southerly winds will continue to advect moisture into north
and central Georgia at the surface as a surface low moves towards
the midwest north of the CWA and drives an attendant surface
front towards us. Temperatures will be well above average once
again today by as much as 6-12 degrees, reaching into the mid 80s.
These are likely being mitigated a bit from going even higher by
potential cloud cover and increased surface moisture (something
something high specific heat of water vapor). Record highs at most
climate sites are in the 90s, but Atlanta is at 88 set in 1925
and 1994 for the day, which would likely be the only record with
any small chance of being challenged.

Surface front will begin to approach north and central Georgia on
Monday. Front will become increasingly detached from upper level
forcing that is rapidly pushing to the NE and is forecast to stall
before reaching the CWA. Moisture will be pooled ahead of the front
across north Georgia on Monday afternoon which will allow for decent
surface based instability to build, forecast to be near 1000 J/kg
per HREF model average. This will be sufficient for some storms to
fire ahead of the front. However, severe weather is not anticipated
at this time owing to lack of shear to aid in organization, thanks
to upper level forcing being well to the north. Won`t rule out
seeing a strong storm that is able to briefly take advantage of the
instability to form a stronger updraft, however. These should be
confined to mostly far northern Georgia and will fade quickly after
sunset.
Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 517 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Starting off the long term should start to see the upper level
ridging begin to break down finally with the upper level system to
our west beginning to translate into the mid MS valley. By Monday
night into Tuesday north Georgia should begin to see rainfall
enter the area as the front stalls out. With the dynamics of the
low well to our north and no discernible upper level features to
help push the front further south, expecting the front to stall
somewhere over north and central Georgia which will increase
rainfall along that boundary through late Tuesday. With quasi-
zonal flow in store beginning Tuesday into Wednesday not expecting
any really strong forcing mechanisms for showers and more at the
mercy of small shortwaves moving through the overall flow. This
ultimately results in almost daily rain chances for the long term
although chances remain ~30% due to some uncertainty. Expecting
these showers to mainly be in the afternoons and diurnally driven.
With the above normal temperatures going into the long term, will
likely see thunderstorms associated with these showers as well.
Current rainfall totals for the Monday/Tuesday system continue to
be at 1".

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR through TAF period. Elevated cigs around 250 expected at metro
TAF sites through period. Some FEW/SCT cu expected during
this afternoon around 050. Winds will be SSE at 5-10 kts through
evening. A few shifts to SSW will be possible, but winds expected
to remain predominately on east side. Winds go lighter after
sunset. Shift to SSW should occur near 09Z, and remain that way
through tomorrow.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          84  60  85  62 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         85  64  85  65 /   0   0  10  30
Blairsville     80  57  80  59 /   0   0  20  60
Cartersville    85  61  86  62 /   0   0  20  50
Columbus        86  61  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     83  61  84  64 /   0   0  10  30
Macon           85  61  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            85  61  85  62 /   0   0  40  60
Peachtree City  85  60  85  61 /   0   0  10  20
Vidalia         86  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Lusk