341
FXUS62 KFFC 111041
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
641 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
   during the afternoon and evening today and tomorrow. A few
   storms may become strong to severe this afternoon, capable of
   producing isolated damaging wind gusts.

 - Temperatures will remain above seasonal norms through the
   weekend, with afternoon heat index values in the upper 90s to
   low 100s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Over the course of the day today, a shortwave traversing otherwise
largely quasi-zonal flow at the mid-levels will approach the state
from the northwest. The combination of this (and an attendant
frontal boundary) and a steady stream of moist, southwesterly flow
around the Bermuda High at the surface will support the development
of waves of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
PWATs are progged to surge north of 2" -- well exceeding the 90th
percentile climatologically, and perhaps even daily maximums.
Simulated model sounding profiles are rather saturated with
unimpressive mid-level lapse rates and near-negligble shear, but
ample instability lends itself to chances for isolated severe
potential in especially strong water-loaded downdrafts/wet
microbursts. Overall rainfall totals remain low for today (up to
three-quarters of an inch), but a high PWAT environment with chances
for training/multiple rounds of heavy rainfall means at least an
outside chance for localized flash flooding concerns. Highs will
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, just a bit lower than
yesterday owing to increased convective coverage for many.

Saturday will be a near-carbon copy of today with no major changes
to the main contributors to the forecast expected. Scattered to
numerous (and perhaps even widespread) showers and thunderstorms are
expected during the afternoon, and may continue overnight tonight
into Saturday morning. At least patchy fog is likely to be around
during the morning, but coverage is highly dependent on lingering
overnight convection (which has a tendency to provide sufficient
mixing to prevent lowest visibilities). Highs during the afternoon
are likely to be a tick lower for areas along and north of I-85,
peaking in the mid-80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Deep moisture from the Gulf will remain in place across the forecast
area and much of the Southeast as the long term period begins on
Saturday. As the axis of a mid level trough moves across the
Appalachians, it will continue to nudge a weakening frontal boundary
through the far northern tier. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue in portions of north and west Georgia in the vicinity
of this front, though coverage will be far less widespread then
Saturday afternoon with the loss of daytime instability. Low
temperatures on Sunday morning will range from the upper 60s to low
70s, which will be very close to dewpoints. With light winds and a
nearly saturated airmass, areas of fog will be possible as the
morning begins. During the daytime, the aforementioned trough (and a
developing surface low) will lift northeast into the Atlantic,
causing the frontal boundary to lose support and stall across
northern Georgia, where it will eventually wash out.

Scattered afternoon pulse thunderstorms are expected on Sunday,
though there will be a local maximum (40-50% chance) in coverage
closer to where the stalled boundary ends up. Organized severe
weather is not expected given a lack of shear and deep moisture
through the atmospheric column, though ample diurnal instability
will allow for a few storms to become strong. Such storms could
produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and bursts of heavy rain.
With lesser precipitation and cloud coverage on Sunday compared to
Saturday, temperatures are expected to rebound by a couple of
degrees, warming into the low to mid 90s in all but the far
northeastern mountains. With dewpoints remaining in the 70s, heat
index values will climb into the low to mid 100s in areas south of I-
85 and in the upper 90s in areas to the north in the peak heating
hours.

There will be little change in the airmass during the early parts of
next week, with humid conditions and above normal temperatures
combining for heat indices exceeding 100 across the majority of the
area Monday through Wednesday. A ridge moving across the eastern
CONUS on Monday will help suppress convection across the majority of
the area, with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms currently
forecast in areas of south-central Georgia. The axis of the ridge
will begin to shift northeast of the forecast area on Tuesday into
Wednesday, leading to a slight rebound in thunderstorm chances. In a
moist and unstable airmass but in the absence of any surface forcing
mechanisms, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Primarily VFR conds exp thru the TAF pd. SCT-BKN IFR cigs psbl
for CSG/MCN from 10-15Z. Otherwise, SCT-BKN cigs at 2.5-4kft. -SHRA/VCSH
likely to prevail for at least portions of aftn (18-01Z) for all
northern TAF sites, with best chcs for direct impacts in TSRA from
20-24Z. Cannot rule out isold TSRA pre/post aforementioned
timeframe, but lower conf. More widespread IFR likely Saturday AM,
potentially accompanied by -SHRA and MVFR vsbys in BR. Winds will
be nearly due S at times, generally favoring the SSW at 4-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          93  70  86  69 /  40  40  70  60
Atlanta         90  72  85  72 /  50  50  80  50
Blairsville     87  66  79  64 /  20  50  80  60
Cartersville    93  70  86  69 /  50  60  80  50
Columbus        90  73  90  73 /  80  40  70  50
Gainesville     91  71  83  70 /  40  50  80  50
Macon           91  71  90  71 /  60  30  60  60
Rome            93  69  86  68 /  40  60  80  40
Peachtree City  90  70  87  70 /  60  40  80  50
Vidalia         92  73  91  73 /  50  20  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96