089
FXUS62 KFFC 071040
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
640 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

    - Above-normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday
      ahead of a cold front.

    - Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm potential will
      increase ahead of the front tonight into Wednesday, though
      rainfall totals will be limited and not bring substantial
      drought relief.

    - Drier, more Fall-like conditions return late week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Today brings a day of transition as the pattern begins to shift away
from the persistent easterly flow that has been in place for the last
several days. Upper ridging that has extended up the eastern
seaboard becomes flattened along the Gulf coastal states today as a
large scale trough swings through the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile,
the surface high pressure that had been the source of our "in-situ"
wedge-like pattern is shoved well eastward into the Atlantic ahead
of the approaching surface cold front. Other than a few spotty
sprinkles or light rain showers in far north Georgia, most areas
will remain dry today. More breaks in cloud cover this afternoon
will allow temperatures to warm markedly into the low to mid 80s in
north Georgia and even the upper 80s in Middle Georgia, well above
normal.

The cold front pushes into the Tennessee Valley late this evening
and quickly into far northwest Georgia by early Wednesday morning.
Scattered shower coverage will begin to increase across northwest
Georgia by this evening and transition farther southward into
western and north central Georgia during the overnight hours. Only
an isolated, brief thunderstorm is possible given meager
instability, and shower coverage should gradually become more
isolated through sunrise Wednesday. While any rain will be
appreciated given ongoing drought conditions, QPF will remain
limited with this overnight activity, likely a quarter inch or less
for most.

The cold front makes fast southward progress during the day
Wednesday and as such will bifurcate the CWA by afternoon. Given
this quick progression, the best opportunity for additional isolated
to widely scattered convection will be generally south of the I-85
to I-20 corridor Wednesday afternoon and evening. Again, QPF will be
fairly limited with only localized amounts over a quarter of an inch
possible. As the arrival of the cooler, drier postfrontal airmass
will largely hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday, highs on
Wednesday will again warm well above normal, ranging from the low
80s north to upper 80s in southern counties. A few spots could even
touch 90 degrees in far southern areas Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Moving into Thursday morning and the start of the extended range,
north and central Georgia will be post-frontal, with weakly
northwesterly flow at the mid-levels working to usher in a
comparatively drier airmass. A deepening mid-level shortwave
trekking across the Southeast is likely to interact with the
lingering baroclinic zone off of the Carolina coast, organizing into
a more defined surface low pressure system into the weekend. Best
moisture and forcing will thus be relegated to coastal Georgia and
along the eastern Gulf, so chances (15-20%) for further showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon will be isolated to our far
southern/southeastern zones.

The aforementioned southern-stream mid-level shortwave looks to
phase with a digging northern-stream counterpart late Friday/early
Saturday, closing off and resulting in highly amplified troughing
spanning much of ECONUS. Resultant deep, strongly northwesterly mid-
level flow will funnel dry, continental air into the Gulf states
from Friday on, effacing any remnant rain chances. Conditions for
the majority of the long term period will be mild and pleasant as a
result, with highs in the 70s to near 80 -- warming just a tick each
day through the weekend -- and morning lows in the upper 40s (!) to
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

IFR cigs are prevalent at ATL area and AHN sites this morning with
intermittent breaks to MVFR. More sustained improvement to MVFR is
expected by 14Z with VFR cigs increasingly likely by 16-18Z. Iso
to sct -SHRA become possible at ATL area sites after 06Z Wednesday
with most likely time frame 08-12Z Wednesday ahead of a cold
front. Winds will remain SE 5-8 kts today before shifting to SW
and W by 08-10Z Wednesday.

//ATL
Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on cigs this morning and SHRA timing Wednesday
morning.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  66  82  59 /  10  20  30  30
Atlanta         83  68  84  63 /  10  20  20  20
Blairsville     75  63  76  56 /  20  50  30  20
Cartersville    84  68  82  62 /  20  40  20  10
Columbus        86  68  87  66 /  10  10  20  10
Gainesville     79  67  82  60 /  10  30  30  20
Macon           86  67  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
Rome            85  68  84  61 /  20  50  20  10
Peachtree City  84  66  85  62 /  10  20  20  20
Vidalia         87  66  89  65 /  20   0  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...RW