269
FXUS62 KFFC 141115
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
715 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
    and evening, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.

  - Warm, moist air remains in place today and "feels like"
    temperatures will in the 90s to low triple digits. Please keep
    this in mind with any outdoor activities.

  - Active weather with daily thunderstorm chances will continue
    throughout much of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Current radar and satellite show decaying convective complex across
northern Alabama that is pushing slowly to the south and east.
Outflow is generally pushing out ahead of the system but has been
kicking up some new cells on the south side. Given moist environment
with some remaining elevated instability, it is possible that this
system could push into portions of west Georgia during the early
morning hours and at least bring some rain showers or a few bursts
of heavier rain. This system will have some impacts on the
convective evolution expected today in a couple possible ways - one,
the remnant cloud cover may limit initial heating, which could delay
convective initiation in places it impacts until dissipating and
two, may provide for differential heating boundaries via the outflow
that could be sources of convective initiation later today. On top
of this, some new convective initiation is noted across eastern AL
that appears associated with some light moisture advection that may
move into western Georgia within the next few hours depending on how
these cells keep developing. This is just the initial morning
challenges that will have impacts on how the day plays out - plenty
more to talk about through the day.

Speaking of that, the overall synoptic setup finds a stationary
front draped across far north Georgia that stalled with the loss of
forcing from a subtle wave in the upper level flow that generated a
weak coastal low off New England. We have surface high pressure over
the eastern Gulf that is continuing to push the soupy, moisture
laden air into north and central Georgia. Relatively potent
shortwave is rotating around the broader low to the north of us
aloft that will aid in pushing a surface frontal boundary south
through the day. Copious moisture is in place and will be pooling
ahead of the front. Expectation is that it will take minimal day
time heating to get convection going across the CWA. Peak timing is
expected to be 2p to 8p, but things in some areas may start as soon
as 11a (and maybe sooner based on some of the discussion above).

Early convective coverage will have impacts on what happens later as
the front begins to push towards the area. Several CAMs show a line
or broken line of storms that begins to form across TN and north AL
that push into the CWA by the late afternoon and into the evening
hours...though keep in mind some of the above discussion of ongoing
convection that many CAMs have poorly handled. Mean SBCAPE values
within the HREF guidance during the afternoon rises to 1000-2000
J/kg. While shear is low, it isn`t zero, with bulk 0-6km values
hovering around 15-20 kts. This may allow for some cold pool
development as storms propagate eastward. DCAPE values vary per
model, but should be around 500 J/kg. Given shear may help sustain
updrafts a bit longer than typical pulse convection, we could see
some moisture laden downdrafts that bring some gusty, potentially
severe winds to the surface. Slight Risk for severe weather is in
place across north Georgia and a Marginal Risk covers most the rest
of the CWA.

Other thing to discuss is heat. It will be very warm and moist
across east central Georgia again today. However, the potential for
cloud cover and more widespread thunderstorms when compared to
yesterday means that confidence isn`t there for a heat advisory.
Still, heat indices are likely to rise into the low triple digits
across east central Georgia, so keep this in mind with any outdoor
activities.

Frontal boundary sags into the area overnight as convection winds
down and pushes east and south. Expectation is for it to stall
across central Georgia. Moisture will continue to be drawn into the
area as yet another shortwave within broad trough will sweep to the
north on Monday. Stalled frontal boundary will likely be the focus
for convective development again across central Georgia on Monday.
Temperatures and moisture across with CWA will be quite different,
which will have impacts on feels like temps. North Georgia will be
cooler, with highs in the 80s and Tds in the 60s behind the front,
while central Georgia will remain in the soup with 90s for Ts and
low 70s for Tds. Cloud cover and forecast rain would currently
prevent the need for any heat advisories, though far east central
Georgia could once again see triple digit apparent Ts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

At the start of the extended range on Tuesday, southern CONUS will
be situated at the base of broader mid-level troughing, within a
regime of quasi-zonal/at times weakly northwesterly flow that will
linger through the week. Abundant Gulf moisture (PWATs as high as
2") funneled into the Southeast by flow around the western edge of
the Bermuda high combined with lift from any shortwave disturbances
traversing mid-level flow will support bolstered chances for showers
and thunderstorms daily. Currently, coverage of thunderstorms is
expected to be scattered to numerous nearly every single day,
exceeding that of a more typical, pulse-convective summer day.
Antecedent moisture will support periods of heavy rainfall at times,
and localized/nuisance flash flooding concerns are likely to come
into play, especially in areas that see successive days/afternoons
with thunderstorm activity. Nearly-saturated model sounding profiles
and relatively unimpressive kinematics (as it currently stands) will
likely preclude more widespread severe concerns, but will continue
to monitor. Friday appears to be the wettest day of the next
several, with interplay between an advancing cold front and a
secondary push of deep moisture.

Highs for most through the extended will be in the upper 70s to 80s,
as much as 6-10 degrees below average for mid-June. Lows will be on
the warm side, in the mid-60s to mid-70s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026
TSRA impacting KATL and other TAF sites this morning will move
through over next few hours. Another round of TSRA possible this
afternoon after 18Z continuing into early overnight as front
approaches and passes through metro TAF sites. IFR/MVFR cigs
possible overnight, though some uncertainty. Winds will be W to
NW, 7-12 kts with gusts that could be near 20 kts.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium cigs and convective timings. High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  72  88  67 /  60  20  10  30
Atlanta         91  72  84  67 /  70  40  30  40
Blairsville     84  63  78  57 /  80  50  10  10
Cartersville    89  69  82  64 /  80  50  20  30
Columbus        94  74  87  69 /  60  30  70  60
Gainesville     89  70  83  65 /  70  30  10  20
Macon           94  74  89  69 /  70  20  50  60
Rome            88  68  82  63 /  80  40  20  20
Peachtree City  91  71  84  66 /  60  30  30  50
Vidalia         96  76  93  73 /  60  20  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Lusk