887
FXUS62 KFFC 190713
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Key Messages:

 - No direct wind or rain impacts from Hurricane Erin are expected
   in north/central Georgia.

 - Scattered thunderstorms are most likely in north Georgia this
   afternoon and evening. The chance for widespread severe weather
   is low each day.

 - Locally heavy rain from slow moving storms could lead to a
   localized flooding risk in the far northeast mountains today.

As surface high pressure continues to move across southeast Canada,
ridging is developing between the Appalachians and the eastern
seaboard. As a result, a weak wedge will build into portions of
north and east Georgia and persist through much of the short term
period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin continues to move north-northwest
across the Atlantic. The influence of the high pressure ridging is
expected to keep Erin far away from Georgia, and further begin to
steer the center of the storm due north away from the eastern
tonight into Wednesday.

The wedge will not be nearly as strong as the one we saw earlier
this month/ High temperatures within are forecast to be limited to
the mid to upper 80s, though highs outside of the wedge will still
rise into the low 90s in northwest Georgia and mid 90s in central
Georgia. The influence of the wedge will bring additional moisture,
and thus cloud cover and PoPs to the north and east portions of the
forecast area today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across north Georgia this afternoon and evening, with more
isolated coverage in central Georgia. The highest chances of
thunderstorms will be in the highest elevations of the northeast
mountains. Speaking of the far northeastern mountains, there is a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall in this area. With
a combination of slow storm motion and upslope development along
east-facing slopes, it is possible that stronger storms could
produce heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding concerns.

As Erin continues northward on Wednesday, much of the forecast area
will remain under a northeasterly flow regime. Weak mid-level
subsidence on the west side of Erin are anticipated to somewhat
suppress diurnal convection on Wednesday afternoon in areas to the
south of I-85. Chances for scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday will
instead be highest along and north of I-85 ahead of a frontal
boundary approaching from the northwest. Locally higher chances will
once again be possible in the far northeastern mountains due to
terrain influences. High temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will
rise to the low 90s in all but the far northeast.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms possible
      Thursday through Saturday, with chances decreasing as
      we approach the work week.

    - Highs will trend slightly cooler than average beginning late
      week.

Moving into Thursday and the start of the extended range, all eyes
will be on Hurricane Erin churning offshore of the Carolina coast,
poised to more properly phase with a digging mid-level trough
throughout the course of the day. No direct impacts are expected
from Erin in north and central Georgia, and it will continue to be
swept to the northeast and away from ECONUS as the trough lifts and
exits the Eastern Seaboard.

As it does so, much of the Southeast will remain in a relative
weakness in mid-level flow (a ridge to the west and Erin/the
eventual remnants of Erin to the east) through Saturday. Given
benign north/northeasterly flow aloft, the primary catalyst for our
increasing rain chances to round out the week will be a cold front
trekking southeastward through the forecast area throughout the day
Thursday before stalling out along the northern Gulf coast for the
better part of the weekend. There remains some uncertainty regarding
whether frontal lift associated with the passage of the
aforementioned boundary or subsidence on the western side of Erin
will win out on Thursday, but at any rate, it looks to be the least
rainy day over the next several. With subpar shear and unimpressive
lapse rates, none too concerned with chances for widespread severe
weather, and any storms that form will trend toward garden-variety
summertime (quick pulses, locally heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, gusty winds).

Highs on Thursday (pre-front) will be the warmest of the period,
topping out in the upper 80s to mid-90s areawide. Under increased
cloud cover and with cooler, continental air filtering in behind the
front, temperatures each day Friday through Monday will be several
degrees cooler, in the lower 80s to lower 90s (2-6 degrees below
average). Morning lows will fall into the 60s to lower 70s, and may
even dip into the upper 50s for portions of the northeast Georgia
mountains Monday into Tuesday.

As a footnote, we continue to approach the climatological peak of
the Atlantic hurricane season, and recent NHC guidance corroborates
this. While Hurricane Erin will pose no local or direct threats to
north and central Georgia, two additional waves have been identified
at varying distances off the western coast of Africa with 60% and
10% chances of development through the next 7 days, respectively.
It`s much too early to postulate potential impacts or tracks of
storms should they form, but it`s never a bad time to revisit
personal weather safety plans and to ensure you`re only seeking
forecast information from reputable sources that shy away from
hype/clickbait.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Isolated SHRA is present across portions of far NE GA, including
AHN, and is anticipated to persist through the early morning
hours. MVFR ceilings are also possible in NE GA and AHN this
morning, though they are not expected to reach ATL. Outside of
this, a VFR cu field will develop once again by late morning and
persist through the afternoon. Scattered storms are forecast this
afternoon, warranting a PROB30 for TSRA at the ATL metro sites
from 18-23Z. Winds will be light and variable to start the period,
then become E to NE at 4-7 kts during the daytime.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA coverage.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  71  90  70 /  40  20  20  10
Atlanta         91  73  92  73 /  40  20  30  10
Blairsville     83  67  85  66 /  60  20  50  20
Cartersville    92  72  92  70 /  40  10  30  10
Columbus        94  74  92  74 /  20  10  30  10
Gainesville     88  71  89  70 /  50  20  30  10
Macon           93  73  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
Rome            92  72  91  70 /  30  10  40  10
Peachtree City  91  72  91  71 /  40  10  20  10
Vidalia         93  72  92  73 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...King