725
FXUS62 KFFC 061847
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect across most of north and
   central Georgia through this evening due to well above normal
   temperatures and heat index values in the triple digits.

 - Numerous thunderstorms will develop across the area this
   afternoon and evening. Several storms may become severe with
   damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

 - Cooler temperatures and scattered rain showers move in on
   Monday, with low rain chances and gradually warming
   temperatures to follow through late week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Warm Temps and Severe Thunderstorm Still A Concern Today:

Current satellite loop shows some scattered clouds beginning to
develop across the area with a couple isolated thunderstorms. As
these storms are forming they appear to grow very fast and fall just
as quickly. A mid-level shortwave and associated surface front is
pushing south over the southern Appalachians and into NE GA. The
strong forcing from these features combined with the humid and
unstable airmass in place will support numerous showers and storms
this afternoon and evening. Given that MUCAPE values are expected to
be around 1500-2500 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates and
increasing effective shear of 20-25kts, several storms will likely
be severe.  Any severe storms would be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, quarter-size hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall. SPC has noted this severe weather threat with a Slight
Risk (Level 2 of 5) covering most of our area. Another threat we
will have to watch out for is localized flash flooding in urban and
poor-drainage areas due to the potential for repeated rounds of
storms with efficient rainfall rates. This boundary is expected to
move south through the area through tonight with a cooler and
slightly drier airmass move in behind it.

Cooler Temperatures and Rain Showers on Monday:

Following the frontal boundary this evening, a cooler airmass will
spread across the area overnight into Monday within east-northeast
flow. This wedge-like pattern of breezy easterly winds and cloudy
skies will make things feel much cooler than recent days, and
high temperatures will struggle to get out of the low to mid 80s
across most of the area. While the airmass will be cooler, the
drier air will not move in until Monday night. So, we will likely
still have enough forcing, moisture, and instability to support
isolated to scattered rain showers or weak thunderstorms across
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Tuesday through midweek, the core of mid-level ridging will move
overhead (flattening as it does), accompanied by high pressure at
the surface -- oriented such that we`re likely to have an extended
period of "cold" air damming. Heat will begin to build once again,
with highs returning to several degrees above average by mid-to-late
week. Breezy easterly winds should support ample mixing during the
afternoon, which will initially serve to keep heat index values
within a few degrees of air temperatures. Convective development
will be hampered by subsidence across the northern half of the
forecast area, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
possible across south central Georgia through Wednesday.

The presiding mid-level ridge will retrograde westward across the
Four Corners region on Thursday, allowing for more substantial
moisture intrusion across the Southeast (driven by southwesterly
surface winds), and a return to more uniform afternoon thunderstorm
chances areawide. A cold front riding along the leading edge of
shortwave troughing will sweep across the area over the course of
the day Friday, bolstering convective coverage and providing some
support for at least quasi-organization into clusters.

Tuesday will be the "coolest" day in the long term (relatively
speaking), with highs in the 80s to near 90. Gradual warming will
occur throughout the remainder of the period, with highs returning
to the low-to-mid 90s for all but far northeast Georgia.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Scattered clouds beginning to develop across the state with some
isolated thunderstorms. Will continue to see the clouds and
storms increase this afternoon with some strong storms expected
through the evening hours. Winds are mainly out of the NE in the
6-12kt range but will see some gusty VRB winds in and around
convective activity. Also expecting some MVFR to IFR ceilings just
before sunrise Mon but they will lift back into the VFR range by
15-17z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  84  67  88 /  60  50  20  10
Atlanta         73  86  71  87 /  30  30  20  10
Blairsville     65  79  62  81 /  20  40  10   0
Cartersville    71  87  69  89 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus        73  92  73  91 /  40  20  20  20
Gainesville     70  81  68  85 /  50  40  20  10
Macon           71  88  70  88 /  60  40  30  30
Rome            71  88  69  89 /  20  10  10   0
Peachtree City  71  87  69  88 /  30  20  30  10
Vidalia         72  88  71  88 /  60  60  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011>013-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...01