971
FXUS62 KFFC 182343
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A hot and muggy airmass remains in place into next week, with
    triple digit heat index values remaining likely for many
    areas.

  - Scattered afternoon thunderstorms continue each day. Some may
    be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts, frequent
    lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A tropical airmass will remain in place across the Southeast through
the short term period and into the next week, which will keep
dewpoints in the mid 70s and precipitable water values between 2 and
2.2 inches. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid 90s
in areas south of I-85 and upper 80s to low 90s to the north. Within
this airmass, heat indices will climb to above 100 across all but
the far northern tier. Furthermore, heat index values will be
between 105-109 degrees in portions of east-central Georgia, where a
Heat Advisory will be in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.

As SBCAPE values increase to 2000-3000 J/kg, scattered thunderstorms
have developed across far northern and western portions of the
forecast area. These storms will spread south/southeast along
outflows through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening. Given the deep atmospheric moisture, stronger storms that
develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. This could lead
to localized instances of flash flooding in urban and low-lying
areas given slow storm motion. Stronger storms will also be able to
produce strong, briefly damaging wind gusts. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will become more focused across central Georgia this
evening and linger until around midnight.

A longwave trough extends through the eastern Great Lakes and
through the Midwest. As this trough continues towards the Eastern
Seaboard, an associated surface low will deepen and advance
northeast towards Nova Scotia, with a trailing cold front being
nudged further south into Tennessee/North Carolina by early Sunday.
While the front is not expected to enter Georgia, convective
clusters initiated along the boundary are anticipated to drift
southward into the forecast area on Sunday. This, in addition to
continued deep moisture and diurnal enhancement, will promote more
numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon. Similar to
today, a few stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Since the cold front will
not reach Georgia, the only relief we will see from the heat will
come from increased storm coverage. Heat indices are forecast to
peak over 100 across the majority of the area, and another Heat
Advisory may be needed across east-central Georgia where they
will be hottest.

Another feature that will warrant continued monitoring will be a mid-
level low that continues to spin over the northeastern Gulf. It
remains possible that this disturbance could become more organized
and gain tropical characteristics, with a 30% chance for development
over the next 2 days and a 40% chance of development over the next 7
days per NHC. No direct impacts from this system are expected during
the short term period. Contrary to some previous forecasts, latest
guidance appears to indicate that this system will not be lifted to
the northeast by the aforementioned trough on Sunday and early next
week. This would leave the disturbance to drift slowly northwest
early next week and leave the same hot, humid airmass in place over
the region going into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

High temperatures concerns will be the main issue in the first half
of the term forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are expected
every day with apparent temperatures exceeding triple digits. By
Wednesday, a heat advisory may be needed for portions of the central
and eastern parts of the CWA as HI values exceed 105. Little in the
way of relief is expected during the overnight hours as temps only
fall into the low to mid 70s.

A dry cold front Wednesday into Thursday will give us a quick break
from heat and humidity as we close out the work week; though highs
will still be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That lower humidity
will help break the choke hold of triple digit heat index values as
we roll into next weekend.

There isn`t a good signal for likely afternoon thunderstorms, but a
scattered storms will remain possible during the afternoon through
the week. Coverage highest on Wednesday afternoon, but pops are
still limited to slight chance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Diurnal showers and storms along the I-20 corridor are departing
the metro with only a limited window over the next hour or so for
impacts, mainly at KPDK. Isolated storms are in the vicinity of
KMCN and KAHN with some impacts possible there as well. A fairly
quiet overnight is expected once convection dissipates. Another
round of afternoon/evening TSRA/SHRA is once again expected
tomorrow with associated impacts. Winds will be light and variable
overnight and light again tomorrow out of the west/southwest.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence in afternoon storms on Sunday is medium.
Confidence is high for all other elements.

Winesett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  93  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
Atlanta         74  92  74  91 /  10  50  30  30
Blairsville     67  85  67  84 /  10  50  20  70
Cartersville    73  92  73  92 /  10  40  30  40
Columbus        75  93  74  93 /  40  60  20  30
Gainesville     73  92  73  90 /  10  40  30  50
Macon           73  92  73  92 /  40  30  10  30
Rome            72  92  72  91 /  10  50  30  50
Peachtree City  72  92  72  91 /  20  50  30  30
Vidalia         75  95  74  95 /  30  10  10  40

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Winesett