787
FXUS62 KFFC 221112
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
Issued by National Weather Service Birmingham AL
712 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 432 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Key Messages:

  - Thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow. Severe weather is
    not expected.

  - Highs in the 80s today and tomorrow. Lows tonight in the 60s.

Forecast:

Rain with a few rumbles of thunder are ongoing across northern
Georgia this morning ahead of a stalled frontal system. Showers
are likely to linger over the next few hours through sunrise with
copious moisture and some upper level divergence in place, with
some light rain possible in portions of the ATL metro during the
morning hours. Patchy sunshine will likely be able to break out
in parts of central Georgia this afternoon, while north Georgia
remains socked in with cloud cover. Moisture continues to pool
ahead of the stalled frontal boundary, and despite ongoing rain
this morning, surface instability combined with some upper level
divergence should be sufficient to support some additional
afternoon thunderstorm development. North and central Georgia
remain well disconnected from the polar jet into Wednesday, so
little out there to change our current pattern. Afternoon
thunderstorms will again be possible on Wednesday as upper level
flow stagnates a bit in a more summertime like pattern.

For today, severe chances look to be even less than yesterday
thanks to the upper levels being a bit worked over from the early
morning convection and rain showers. Moisture and day time heating
will allow for HREF mean SBCAPE values to reach 500 to just under
1000 J/kg by the late afternoon, which will be sufficient for
convective maintenance. Convective models like the idea of
convection to fire over north and central Alabama and traverse
into north Georgia by the late afternoon to evening hours, with
some potential for isolated storms as far south as metro Atlanta
with the day time heating to form. Shear values remain poor given
how far removed from the polar jet we are - 0-6 km bulk shear is
under 30 kts and hodographs are bunched on top of themselves.
Thunderstorms will struggle to maintain themselves separate from
cold pools that develop as a result, which will also severely
limit the ability for any severe weather to form this afternoon.

Wednesday looks very similar to today. Moisture remains over the
area with little forcing other than diurnally driven heating.
Afternoon to evening thunderstorms will once again be possible.
Models hint at the possibility of a little more instability to
work with, but shear remains very poor. Highs each day will be in
the 80s - lower 80s in north Georgia under clouds and potential
rain, mid to upper 80s towards central Georgia where some sunshine
may be possible.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 432 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Key Messages:

-Daily afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms from mid-week
through the weekend for N GA.

-Temps 10-15 degrees above normal through at least early next week
(potential for 90s).

By mid-week the upper level pattern will favor a quasi-zonal pattern
with much of the rain chances enhanced by small vort maxes pushing
through the overall pattern. With the frontal boundary stalled out
over north Georgia, this area will be the main focus for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, though rain chances (25-35%) do extend
towards central Georgia where showers cannot be ruled out. When it
comes to CAPE, median values range from 750-1250 J/kg each afternoon
which will be enough to have a summer like pattern to the storms
that form and thus the overall threat for severe weather does remain
low. Shear values remain low as well reinforcing the overall severe
threat remaining low through the weekend. Temps during this time
will raise into the mid to upper 80s. PWATs through the weekend will
be hovering around the 90th percentile (1.3-1.4in) if not above and
actually approaching daily max for climatology (1.6-1.7in). This
with the increased temps is going to equal a muggy/humid week in
addition to the showers. Temps overnight look to also stay elevated
into the low to mid 60s many days. This will approach some of our
daily highest minimum temperature records.

Towards the end of the weekend into early next week, will see upper
level ridging take over for much of the eastern CONUS with
associated high pressure at the surface. This will allow for temps
to reach even higher into the upper 80s to low 90s (southeast
central Georgia). Rain chances are expected to diminish into the
start of next week as well with the high pressure firmly in place
over the area. Looking ahead, it`s almost safe to say these warm
temperatures are here to stay at least through mid May with a 55-70%
chance for above normal temperatures.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR to start TAF period. Very brief period of SHRA possible at
some TAF sites this morning, especially RYY, but chances very low.
Afternoon convection could impact metro TAF sites starting around
18Z and continuing until 02Z. Cig impacts possible tonight
starting around 08Z. MVFR/IFR cigs possible, though confidence
only medium. Winds will be W to NW through period, light and
somewhat variable at times.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium convection and cigs timing. High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  59  81  60 /  50  30  70  40
Atlanta         78  62  81  63 /  50  30  70  30
Blairsville     71  55  74  56 /  70  30  90  40
Cartersville    76  59  81  60 /  70  30  70  30
Columbus        83  61  86  63 /  20  20  50  20
Gainesville     76  61  79  62 /  60  30  70  30
Macon           85  61  86  62 /  10  10  50  30
Rome            75  58  81  60 /  70  40  70  20
Peachtree City  80  59  82  60 /  40  30  70  30
Vidalia         88  64  89  64 /  10  10  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Lusk