714
FXUS62 KFFC 050542
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
142 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Key Messages:

  - Some rain showers possible across central Georgia and far north
    Georgia. These should end quickly after sunset.

  - Warmer than average temperatures tonight and tomorrow.

Forecast:

Weakly amplified shortwave is pushing across the area as it taps
into a little bit of tropical moisture within the Gulf. Moisture has
been mostly confined to the mid to upper levels where best lift is
located. Showers seem to be occasionally reaching the ground in
portions of west central Georgia in and around the Columbus area, but
most things are falling as virga. PoPs were reduced a bit in the SW
to account for less than expected precip reaching the ground. In the
northwest part of the state, sunshine has been able to break out and
cumulus fields have started to build a bit in TN and northern AL.
This could lead to a few afternoon showers or storms, though the
upper levels remain a bit more dry and hostile in these areas which
should act to limit coverage given limited instability. The mountains
are the final place where some showers could be seen this afternoon,
as the sun begins to peak out and differential heating could provide
some additional means for lift.

As this short wave moves by this evening, lift and moisture move
away and rain chances diminish and cloud cover should push south.
Still, with cloud cover around to start, and surface moisture
sticking around, low temps will remain elevated compared to normal in
the mid to upper 60s. Some cloud cover may remain around portions of
central Georgia tomorrow, but rain chances should remain very low in
these areas. No rain expected further north. With plenty of
sunshine, highs in north Georgia will reach into the mid to upper
80s, as much as 6-10 degrees above normal for some locations. Highs
in central Georgia will depend on cloud cover going from the low to
mid 80s and bit closer to seasonable temperatures.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

At a glance:

    - Warmer first half, cooler second half

    - Minimal (if any) rain expected

Amazing and beautiful are two words that could be used to describe
the long term forecast. A mid-level closed low is progged to rotate
eastward along the US/Canada border toward New England from now
through midweek next week, kicking several weak boundaries riding
along the broader trough toward the Southeast. Progressively cooler
and drier reinforcing shots of continental air are ushered in by way
of resultant northwesterly flow, helping to tamp down on any
meaningful chances for showers or thunderstorms through next Friday
(carrying <10% chances for any given window over days 3 through 7).

High temperatures initially in the 80s (as much as 5-10 degrees
above average) will trend cooler following a true cold frontal
passage Monday into Tuesday. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 70s to
lower-80s to round out the remainder of next week. Crisp -- dare we
say truly Fall-like -- mornings to come in the latter half of the
extended, with morning low temperatures in the mid-40s to 50s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Patchy MVFR visibility restrictions are in place across portions
of northeast Georgia, including AHN, and are expected to continue
until after sunrise this morning. Otherwise, conditions are
currently VFR across north and central Georgia. A cu field between
035-050 will develop late this morning and through the afternoon
underneath scattered to broken upper level clouds. Winds will be
light and variable during the early morning, becoming E to NE at
5-9 kts by 14Z and through the remainder of the day.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         64  83  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     57  79  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    62  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        67  84  63  87 /   0  10   0   0
Gainesville     62  82  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           65  84  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            61  86  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  62  83  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         67  84  63  86 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...King