394
FXUS62 KFFC 061037
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
637 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

    - Mostly cloudy skies will be slow to scatter later today with
      isolated to scattered showers possible this afternoon.

    - Chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold
      frontal passage midweek, though accumulations will generally
      be less than a half of an inch.

    - Drier, more Fall-like conditions return late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Overcast skies prevail across the bulk of the area this morning with
a few spotty sprinkles also dotting the map. Clouds will be
persistent through much of the day as east-southeast flow continues
to funnel an anomalously moist airmass into the state. Similar to
yesterday, isolated to scattered rain showers can be expected to
increase in coverage during the afternoon hours with a couple of
brief storms also not out of the question. Most areas that receive
rainfall will again by and large receive limited amounts (a tenth of
an inch or less), though by nature of the moisture in place, some
luckier isolated spots could receive a more decent soaking. Highs
today will be held in check to some degree by the clouds, more
likely nearer normal in north Georgia, though temperatures should
warm will into the 80s in Middle Georgia.

The pattern finally begins to shift on Tuesday as the upper ridge
presently extending over the Atlantic East Coast begins to flatten
further across the Gulf Coast states as a trough digs into the Great
Lakes region. Meanwhile, the surface high that has been anchored off
the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coastline is finally pushed eastward by
the incoming cold front. While the front will be progressing quickly
southeastward through the Ohio Valley and into the Tennessee Valley
on Tuesday, it will still be northwest of Georgia through the day.
Thus, PoPs will actually scale back for most of the area with
perhaps a shower or storm beginning to approach far northwest
Georgia by Tuesday evening. Temperatures are expected to warm
further as well, reaching well into the 80s for most locations and
perhaps nearing 90 in parts of Middle Georgia. While above normal,
these temperatures will remain well below record highs for the
date.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

To kick off the extended range on Wednesday, a southeastward-
trekking cold front will be on northwest Georgia`s doorstep. Before
it mixes through, temperatures will be quite warm for this time of
year, in the 80s areawide - as much as 5-10 degrees above average.
Nudged forward by the shortwave trough on its heels, current global
model guidance suggests the front will have cleared south central
Georgia by Thursday morning. Expect isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms (perhaps numerous in coverage across portions of
northeast Georgia where the orographic influence will be stronger)
to overspread the area early, lingering well into the day Thursday.
Despite bringing with it fairly widespread chances for rainfall,
totals are likely to remain generally light (up to 0.5"), and
forcing is meager enough to preclude chances for severe weather.
Trends in forward speed of the front have waffled in previous days,
and if we regress to that of previous days -- which suggested the
front may slow or stall across the midsection of the state -- we`re
likely to see a more pronounced gradient in rainfall totals, with
higher amounts skewed north.

Post-front, expect temperatures to drop back into the upper-60s to
70s areawide, and rain chances to taper off as drier air filters in.
Currently, it appears that the aforementioned front and deepening
mid-level trough will interact off the Carolina coast, and this may
support lingering rain chances for our very far southeastern tier
Thursday into Friday. Elsewhere, expect the compounding effect of
drier northwesterly flow at the mid-levels and wedging setting up at
the surface to preserve cool, dry, and fall-like conditions to round
off the week and move into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Largely MVFR and patchy IFR cigs are affecting TAF sites this
morning. Primarily MVFR cigs are expected to prevail through
early afternoon before some breaks toward VFR become possible by
19-21Z. Lower cigs of MVFR to IFR are again probable after 06-08Z
Tuesday. Iso SHRA are most likely in the 20-00Z time frame. Winds
will remain E to ESE at 8-12 kts with gusts around 20 kts possible
through the afternoon.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on cigs.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  63  80  66 /  30  10   0  20
Atlanta         79  66  83  68 /  20  10   0  20
Blairsville     73  61  76  62 /  10  10  10  50
Cartersville    80  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  40
Columbus        85  67  88  69 /  20  10   0  10
Gainesville     77  65  80  67 /  20  10   0  30
Macon           84  65  85  67 /  30  10  10  10
Rome            82  68  86  68 /  10  10  20  50
Peachtree City  81  64  83  66 /  20  10   0  20
Vidalia         86  67  87  66 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...RW