691
FXUS62 KFFC 262325
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
625 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

A cold front continues to advance southeastward into central
Georgia, and is expected to exit the forecast area by this evening.
Isolated light showers persist in portions of east-central Georgia,
but are expected to come to an end over the next couple of hours as
the upper level support continues to weaken. Breezy northwesterly
winds have set up behind the front, which have begun to usher in a
cooler and drier airmass in the north and west portions of the
forecast area. Locations remaining ahead of the front are forecast
to see temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s this afternoon in
the lingering warmer airmass. However, behind the cold front, cold
air advection is expected to limit afternoon highs to the upper 50s
and 60s, with coolest temperatures in far north Georgia well behind
the front. Colder air will spread further in to the area overnight,
with low temperatures expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in
portions of west and far north Georgia, and low to mid 40s in east
and central Georgia. With the front anticipated to begin stalling as
it approaches the coast, the far southeast portion of the forecast
area will remain a bit warmer (low to mid 50s) due to remaining
cloud cover and weaker cold advection. Patchy frost will be possible
in portions of far northwest Georgia early Wednesday morning where
temperatures will be coolest.

This time around, the colder airmass over north and central Georgia
will be short-lived. On Wednesday, an upper level shortwave will
move southeastward through the Great Plains, with an associated
surface low developing over the Tennessee Valley region. As this low
develops, winds will shift to the south and begin to bring warm and
moist air back into the region. Afternoon highs are expected to rise
into the low to mid 60s in north Georgia and upper 60s to low 70s in
central Georgia. Dewpoints will be fairly slow to recover, keeping
conditions dry through the majority of the day. With moisture
beginning to increase aloft ahead of the advancing system, mid to
upper level clouds will begin to increase through the morning into
the afternoon.

Late Wednesday night, a cold front will extend southward from the
developing surface low and will be advancing towards northwest
Georgia as the low strengthens and moves northeast, though some
uncertainty remains with respect to the timing and progression of
the front. Marginal instability, with MUCAPE values between 200-400
J/kg, is expected across far north Georgia by midnight ahead of the
front. Combined with strong 0-1 km shear values and forcing ahead of
the front, the environment will be able to support scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the far northern
tier after midnight. Precipitation chances are expected to spread
south and east through the early morning as the front progresses
into the forecast area. Given strong low-level and deep layer shear
profiles, a linear mode of storms appears to be most likely. The
potential for strong to severe storms will be discussed in the Long
Term Discussion below...

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 224 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

Active weather will be ongoing at the start of the extended forecast
period Thanksgiving morning as a cold front begins to enter the
state. The surface low will be lifting northeastward from the
Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians Thursday morning,
putting the forecast area within the warm sector ahead of the
incoming cold front. The potential for any strong to severe
thunderstorms will be maximized during this time frame, though there
does remain some uncertainty regarding just how quickly the cold
front will clear the area. GFS solutions continue to represent a
slightly slower progression as compared to ECMWF. This slower
progression would allow for a longer window for potential severe
into Thursday afternoon and a more favorable thermodynamic
environment with as much as 500-900 J/kg of MLCAPE alongside
supportive shear. SPC maintains a broad Marginal Risk for severe
weather on Thursday across the majority of the CWA given lingering
uncertainty regarding the timing and associated thermodynamic
environment. The primary concern will be strong wind gusts as well
as a nonzero risk for a brief spin-up tornado. QPF trends have
continued to be a bit downward, particularly if a more progressive
ECMWF-like solution verifies. At this point, probabilities favor
rainfall totals between 0.25-0.75" with locally higher totals
possible.

The big pattern shift then occurs by Thursday night in the wake of
the cold front as a much colder airmass infiltrates southward.
Arctic high pressure will settle southeastward from Friday into the
weekend, setting up the first widespread freeze of the season by
Saturday morning. A shortwave will bring a reinforcing shot of cold
from Sunday into Monday with a renewed stout Arctic high building
into the region early next week. While a few flurries or light snow
showers could accompany this shortwave, the bulk of this activity
currently appears to remain to our north across the
Tennessee/Carolinas region, and the forecast locally remains dry.
Temperatures through the weekend will run some 8-15 degrees below
normal with even colder conditions early next week as much as 15-20
degrees below normal.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

VFR through the late tomorrow afternoon. MVFR could begin to
overspread the area around 00Z. Winds will be light through the
period...light and variable overnight. Winds may flip-flop around
due north during the day tomorrow, but do think they will settle
on the SW side.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          44  65  52  67 /   0   0  50  50
Atlanta         41  64  55  65 /   0   0  50  50
Blairsville     38  59  46  60 /   0  10  80  50
Cartersville    36  64  53  64 /   0  10  70  40
Columbus        44  69  59  72 /   0   0  40  50
Gainesville     44  61  52  64 /   0   0  60  40
Macon           43  69  57  72 /   0   0  30  50
Rome            35  64  52  64 /   0  10  80  40
Peachtree City  38  66  54  67 /   0   0  50  50
Vidalia         54  73  59  77 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa