231
FXUS62 KFFC 072337
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
737 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Key Messages:

 - A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through
   north Georgia between 4 PM and 11 PM this evening, with
   damaging winds in the 50 to 70 mph range being the primary
   threat.

 - An isolated severe wind threat may continue on Sunday,
   especially in central Georgia.

This Evening & Tonight

The most immediate concern in the forecast remains the line of strong
to severe thunderstorms that is expected to move through north
Georgia this evening. The line of storms which started in the
Central Plains yesterday continues to march in our direction, and it
was prominent on radar over MS/AL as of 1 PM. The line has a history
of producing damaging straight line winds across Arkansas and
Mississippi. It should encroach upon the GA/AL border by around 4 PM
and then rapidly move east across the northern half of the state. By
11 PM or so the threat from this initial line of storms should have
ended or be rapidly diminishing. The environment ahead of the line
looks slightly more unstable than it did at this time yesterday in
the CAM guidance. MUCAPE values in the 1800 to 2500 J/kg range
should be in place for the storms to ingest. The shear environment
remains modest with 15 to 30 kts (0 to 6 kts) of largely
unidirectional shear expected. This should be enhanced by strong
cold pooling (indicated in most of the CAM guidance) and mid/upper
level support from a shortwave trough, both of which should assist
MCS maintenance this evening. The risk for 50 to 70 mph wind gusts
remains and has expanded further eastwards. All counties along and
north of Interstate 20 could experience these conditions during the
4 PM to 11 PM time window. There continue to be a wind risk for
areas further south (central Georgia), but the overall threat
decreases as your distance from Interstate 20 increases.

Over the last 12 hours CAM guidance has been trending toward
additional convection behind the primary line of thunderstorms this
evening. If this convection develops, then a lower end threat for
isolated damaging wind gusts could linger through the overnight
hours. Redevelopment appears most likely along the projected outflow
boundary laid down by this evenings MCS. This should place the
highest potential for overnight storms south of Interstate 20. A
couple isolated storms could occur further north, but the a more
stable boundary layer due to a lingering cold pool should limit the
severe threat.

Weather Concerns for Sunday:

Additional thunderstorms and a lingering severe weather threat will
remain for the region on Sunday. The location of the highest threat
area and greatest storm chances should correlate to the location of
the lingering outflow boundary from storms this evening and
overnight. At this time the consensus in the CAM guidance places
this feature along or just south of a line from Columbus to Macon.
However, forecaster confidence in this is low due to lingering
uncertainty in how convection plays out overnight. It is entirely
possible that overnight convection could push the outflow as far
south as southern Georgia (see the 12 HRRR run), an this would lead
to little or no severe convection in north and central Georgia
Sunday. Any areas along or south of the outflow should be in a high
CAPE and low shear environment on Sunday. This, along with high
precipitable water values (1.7 to 2.0 inches), would favor
precipitation loading and downbursts as the primary severe weather
threat. Thus the damaging wind threat should be more isolated on
Sunday. Lightning will continue to be a concern for any outdoor
events.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Key Messages:

    - Chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon over the
      next 7 days, with potential for severe thunderstorms once
      again on Monday.

    - Any storms that do form will be efficient rainfall producers,
      capable of supporting localized/nuisance flooding.

A glance at the extended range reveals a (literal) rinse and repeat
pattern, with diurnally-driven convection likely each afternoon and
evening, further supported by the interaction of a series of
shortwaves rounding the base of a broader mid-level trough with a
lingering baroclinic zone meandering about the northern Gulf. In
addition to garden-variety, summer-like thunderstorms capable of
upending any outdoor activities with frequent lighting and locally
heavy rainfall and making for a wet afternoon commute, chances for
severe thunderstorms will linger into the start of the work week.

The SPC has outlooked all of north and central Georgia in a Day 3
Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk for Monday. In keeping with the theme
of the previous several days of severe weather chances, the primary
anticipated hazard is likely to be damaging wind gusts associated
with a quasi-line of storms making its way to the south and east.
Reinvigoration of convection is likely along any remnant or leading
outflow boundaries (of which there may be many), the location of
which remains heavily dependent on Sunday`s activity. However, the
parameter space for the event will be relatively unchanged -- modest
lapse rates to 7 C/km or so, remnant outflow boundaries for lift,
instability on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg or greater, and bulk
shear of 20-25kts -- and thus the ceiling would be similar to Sunday
wherever convective initiation occurs.

Multiple waves of high-PWAT airmasses (as high as 2") will support
efficient rainfall producers even if storms are patchy in nature.
WPC has all of north and central Georgia under a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall on Monday, and a sliver of the Columbus area in a
Marginal Risk for Tuesday. 24-hr flash flood guidance is currently
on the order of 3.5-4.5" areawide, so not expecting widespread
flooding concerns at this time, but redevelopment over areas that
have received periods of heavy rainfall in days prior would mean
localized pockets of very saturated soils. As a result, isolated
flash or nuisance flooding is possible in instances of
training/backbuilding or particularly heavy showers or
thunderstorms.

For Sunday through midweek, the forecast area will be largely post-
frontal, doing little to properly dry us out, but contributing to
highs slightly below average -- in the upper-70s to near 90. Beyond
that, expect highs to warm a degree or two each day until we`re back
in the 80s to lower-90s. Overnight lows will be fairly uniformly in
the upper-50s to lower 70s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025
Widespread -SHRA/TSRA are moving east of TAF sites, though
lingering activity could affect MCN/CSG through 01-02Z. Largely
VFR conditions are in its wake. There is some potential for
additional SHRA/TSRA early Sunday AM, though confidence is not
high. If it occurs, would be most likely between 08-12Z. Patchy
MVFR cigs are also possible. Winds will remain primarily SW to W
at 3-6 kts overnight increasing to 8-12 kts after 15Z Sunday with
gusts over 20 kts possible.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence on early Sunday AM SHRA/TSRA.
Medium confidence on cigs.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  84  66  86 /  80  60  20  50
Atlanta         71  83  68  85 /  60  50  20  70
Blairsville     64  79  60  82 /  60  50  20  50
Cartersville    69  83  65  86 /  60  50  20  60
Columbus        74  89  70  87 /  50  50  50  90
Gainesville     69  82  66  84 /  70  50  20  50
Macon           74  88  70  87 /  60  50  50  80
Rome            69  84  66  86 /  60  50  20  60
Peachtree City  70  84  67  85 /  60  50  30  70
Vidalia         75  90  72  87 /  30  50  60  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...RW