039
FXUS62 KFFC 060158
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
958 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

No major updates to the forecast. Models continue their downward
trend in evening/overnight convection tomorrow, with significant
variation in the timing of thunderstorms in northwest Georgia.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Key Messages:

 - Areas of dense fog are possible across north and central Georgia
   between 4 AM and 10 AM Friday morning.

 - A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms could produce damaging
   wind gusts in northwest Georgia between 5 PM Friday and 1 AM
   Saturday.

This Evening and Tonight:

Diurnally driven showers will continue over central Georgia through
around 8 PM this evening. Convective activity will decrease quickly
after sunset with the loss of afternoon heating and subsequent
instability. A couple of isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
this afternoon, but widespread lighting is unlikely due to freezing
levels that are above 13,000 ft AGL and near the top of the unstable
layer. Despite the overall lack of lightning, a deep pool of
tropical moisture below 500 mb (precipitable water values in the 1.8
to 2.0 inch range) should make these showers efficient rain
producers for there size.

As we move into the overnight hours the diurnally driven cumulus
field should decrease in coverage. This should leave us with partly
cloudy to fair skies tonight, and result in decent conditions
radiational cooling. Combine this with light winds and dewpoints in
the 67 to 72 degree range and the setup may be right for areas of
dense fog. Fog is most likely between 4 AM and 10 AM Friday and
there is a 20% chance of a Dense Fog Advisory being issued.

Severe Weather Potential Friday:

For the majority of the day and for most of us, Friday will consist
of humid, warm, and dry weather. Once we push past 1 PM, a few
isolated thunderstorms may develop across western or central
Georgia. We can`t rule out a couple of these storms being on the
stronger side with gusts near 40 mph. In general though the primary
severe weather threat should hold off until Friday evening. This is
when a cluster of thunderstorms associated with a weak shortwave
traversing Tennessee could move into northwest Georgia. CAM trends
have generally pulled back on the overall thunderstorm chances
across northwest Georgia per the latest 12Z HREF run. This gives us
less confidence in the occurrence of an MCS and leads to the
expectation of a more broken cluster of loosely organized convection.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Slight Risk (Level 2
of 5) for severe weather north of Interstate 85 and this generally
seems reasonable. The primary hazard with any strong to severe
storms should be damaging wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range. The
peak period for storm activity and severe risk should occur between
5 PM Friday and 1 AM Saturday. Isolated thunderstorm activity may
occur south of Interstate 85 overnight. However weaker shear and
decreasing instability should limit the severe risk and overall
storm coverage.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Key Messages:

    - Chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon over
      the next 7 days, with potential for severe thunderstorms
      Saturday and Sunday.

    - Any storms that do form will be efficient rainfall producers,
      capable of supporting localized/nuisance flooding.

A glance at the extended range reveals a (literal) rinse and repeat
pattern, with diurnally-driven convection likely each afternoon and
evening, further supported by the interaction of a a series of
shortwaves rounding the base of a broader mid-level trough with a
lingering baroclinic zone meandering about the northern Gulf. In
addition to garden-variety, summer-like thunderstorms capable of
upending any outdoor activities with frequent lighting and locally
heavy rainfall, chances for severe thunderstorms will linger through
much of the weekend.

A Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk has been analyzed across the
entirety of north and central Georgia for Saturday. Similar to
Friday, the primary concern would be the potential for damaging wind
gusts and perhaps isolated instances of large hail (up to 1" or
quarter-sized) within the strongest storms. Ample instability,
potentially upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg per ensembles, will develop
with the onset of daytime heating, sufficient to support strong
initial upward pulses. Kinematics are none-too-impressive, but still
amplified for June, and 25-35 kts of deep layer shear in addition to
progged surface-based and most unstable CAPE is enough to
corroborate severe weather chances. Redevelopment is likely along
remnant outflow boundaries that will linger along wherever the
southern extent of Friday`s activity falls -- with the most probable
location being across the midsection of the state. Global model
guidance suggests that an upstream MCS may maintain itself such that
quasi-organized clusters of storms may enter the area from the west,
and if so, these would pose the greatest risk for damaging winds.

A smaller area across southeast central Georgia has been outlooked
in what is equivalent to another Slight Risk for Sunday, but because
activity on Sunday will be contingent on what shakes out on
Saturday, uncertainty remains regarding intensity and placement of
convection. However, the parameter space will be relatively
unchanged -- remnant outflow boundaries for lift, instability on the
order of 1500-2000 J/kg, and bulk shear of 20-30kts -- and thus the
ceiling would be similar to Saturday wherever convective initiation
occurs.

Multiple waves of high-PWAT airmasses (as high as 1.5-2") will
support efficient rainfall producers even if storms are patchy in
nature. WPC has at least a portion of the forecast area under a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall each day Saturday through
Monday. 24-hr flash flood guidance is currently on the order of 3.5-
4.5" areawide, so not expecting widespread flooding concerns at this
time, but redevelopment over areas that have received periods of
heavy rainfall in days prior would mean localized pockets of very
saturated soils. As a result, isolated flash or nuisance flooding is
possible in instances of training/backbuilding or particularly heavy
showers or thunderstorms.

Highs will be a few degrees warmer than average on Saturday, topping
out in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Sunday and beyond, the forecast area
will be largely post-frontal, doing little to properly dry us out,
but contributing to highs slightly below average -- in the upper-70s
to near 90. Overnight lows will be fairly uniformly in the upper 50s
to lower 70s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR through much of evening. IFR to LIFR temporarily psbl between
9z and 13z with patchy fog stretching lift up to 400 ft at time.
Winds W at 4 to 8 kts during day and light to variable overnight.
SCT -TSRA psbl near CSG with more thunderstorms moving in from the
NW and tapering off towards the ATL metro through the end of the
TAF period. Gusty NW winds and lower vsby possible with these
storms.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence cigs Friday morning.
High confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  83  66  89 /   0  10  10  10
Atlanta         68  84  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
Blairsville     62  82  62  84 /   0  20  20  40
Cartersville    66  86  67  90 /   0  10  10  30
Columbus        71  87  71  90 /   0  20  20  30
Gainesville     67  82  67  88 /   0  10  10  20
Macon           69  86  69  90 /  20  30  20  30
Rome            66  86  67  89 /   0  10  10  50
Peachtree City  68  84  67  89 /   0  10  10  30
Vidalia         73  88  71  89 /   0 100  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SM