317
FXUS62 KFFC 250156
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
856 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024



.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Dewpoints are running slightly below forecasted values once again
in the far NE terrain. Have tried to adjust them to be more
reflective of current conditions.

A minor forecast challenge for tonight is if/when any lower clouds
will move in from the west. Models are struggling with some at no
clouds and others socked it at 100feet. The NAM can be too
aggressive with low clouds/moisture return so have opted to stay
mostly clear/partly cloudy for the overnight hours across most
locales. Some stratus is possible along the AL/GA border by
sunrise.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Key Messages

 - High temperatures should be 6 to 11 degrees above average
   Monday afternoon.

 - Light rain showers should develop over north Georgia Monday
   night.

Tonight through Monday Night:

The core of the surface high currently over the Southeast will
drift into the Atlantic on Monday. This change will lead to
continued southwest winds and WAA in Georgia on Monday. Temperatures
should respond by climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday
afternoon (6 to 11 degrees above average). Increased moisture
advection below 700 mb should allow low clouds to develop in west
Georgia Monday morning, then cloud cover should spread east during
the day.

A trough tracking through the Great Lakes will drive a weak front
into Georgia Monday night. As the front moves through upper level
moisture should increase and this will produce atmospheric moisture
profiles favorable for light rainfall. Lift should be strongest in
north Georgia where light rain amounts in the 0.05 to 0.25 inch
range will be possible by sunrise. Some light drizzle may occur
south of Atlanta before sunrise, but any accumulations should be
very light (0.03 inches or less).

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Key Messages:

 - Roller coaster temps start above normal, before plunging
   through the weekend.

 - Light scattered rain into Tuesday morning.

 - Thanksgiving showers and thunderstorms.

Starting off Tuesday morning, the cold front making its way across
the eastern CONUS will continue to weaken as mid and upper level
dynamics continues to move north and east out of the great lakes
region. PoPs remain mostly north of a line stretching from Columbus
to Macon. While plenty of moisture will be available for
precipitation the weakening cold front and dynamics will mean
measurable precipitation remains mostly along and north of I85.
Accumulations through Tuesday morning remain below 0.3" even through
90th percentile. Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday will be mostly dry
as high pressure temporarily builds in again.

Thanksgiving activities may require ponchos or an umbrella. A series
of shortwaves sweeping around a well defined trough over the great
lakes will bring more appreciable rainfall Thursday morning through
Thursday night. Uncertainty remains high with this system as models
appear to struggle representing the shortwaves as they traverse the
base of the trough. Shortwave speed and depth will play a
significant role in rainfall totals. Higher speeds seem to correlate
with greater depth and more heavy rainfall. The current inter-
quartile range for 24hr precipitation sits at 0.35" to 2.5"+
(indicating high uncertainty). Similarly, thunderstorm chances over
the CWA will be at the mercy of shortwave-trough amplification
timing. Ensemble blend CAPE probs ahead of the front current sit
between 400-1000 J/Kg. While this isn`t necessarily "blow-out"
values, low-mid lvl speed shear of 35 to 50kts may hint at a few
storms becoming strong. While model uncertainty remains too high at
this point in time to say with much confidence, it may be best to
check for future updates of Thursday afternoon thunderstorm
potential.

Tight isobars on Friday and post frontal conditions may see winds
blustery at times. Temperatures will generally be on the downtrend
through the weekend with highs falling from the 60s to the 40s. Lows
on Saturday drop into the low 30s and even mid 20s, which could pose
a risk to exposed water pipes.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Main forecast challenge will be the overnight cigs. Models are
pretty far apart (VFR vs IFR/LIFR). Have kept the sct MVFR deck in
the TAF, but will leave a tempo in for bkn. Winds will remain on
the west side. Clouds will thicken up late tomorrow afternoon with
MVFR likely shortly after 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence cigs.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  68  55  69 /   0   0  60  70
Atlanta         45  68  56  64 /   0   0  60  50
Blairsville     37  64  48  59 /   0  10  70  20
Cartersville    41  70  52  62 /   0  10  70  20
Columbus        44  73  57  71 /   0  10  50  60
Gainesville     43  67  56  65 /   0   0  60  40
Macon           40  72  55  72 /   0   0  20  40
Rome            40  69  51  61 /   0  10  70  20
Peachtree City  41  69  55  65 /   0   0  60  60
Vidalia         43  73  56  74 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...NListemaa