421
FXUS62 KFFC 081955
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Low-level clouds will persist across much of north and central
Georgia through the evening, with light showers possible (20%
chance) across central Georgia, aided by a weak cold front
positioned approximately along the I-85 corridor. An upper-level
shortwave ridge over the Southeast and surface high pressure
nudging in from the Ohio River Valley will keep anything but
showers from developing. Satellite imagery suggests enough
scattering and breaks in the clouds for temperatures to warm into
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Ample low-level moisture will support another night of widespread
low-level cloud development, along with patchy fog (some possibly
dense). Mist/drizzle will be possible within the cloud deck
overnight into early tomorrow (Saturday) morning, especially along
and south of I-20 (near the front as it sags south). Mild
overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s are expected, with
slightly cooler conditions in the mountains.

The aforementioned surface high pressure will shift eastward
tomorrow, settling over the Northeast. This will bring the return
of the wedge across the area. The wedge will make its arrival
known with somewhat-breezy easterly winds and persistent low-level
clouds. The leading edge of the wedge (the wedge front) may aid
in isolated light showers, mainly across central Georgia and our
western counties, where moisture will be maximized. Temperature
trends tomorrow will be dependent on the timing of the wedge
front, but for now, forecasting highs in the upper 60s across
northeast Georgia, with 70s elsewhere.

Moisture advection ahead of a cold front approaching from the
west will support isolated to scattered showers on Saturday night.
The relatively cooler air within the wedge will bring overnight
lows in the 50s. Portions of central Georgia not under the
influence of the wedge are expected to have lows in the lower 60s
to mid-60s.

Martin


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Key Messages:

  - Rain chances increase Sunday into Sunday Night as a front
    approaches the area, with best chances across north Georgia.

  - Temperatures run 5-10 degrees above average for November
    Monday and Tuesday.

  - Another system may bring rain chances by the middle to end of
    next week.

Forecast:

Much of the CONUS is under a relatively progressive upper level
pattern next week, which will help drive some rain chances across
north and central Georgia this coming week. The first system will
be a repeat of a pattern we`ve seen a lot this fall - upper level
low ejects out of the 4 corners region out west and moves across
the Great Plains into the Midwest. By Sunday, there will be a
decent upper level low with attendant surface low and cold front
over the Great Lakes. This will drive some moisture return during
the day that will lift over what remains of the wedge/CAD in place
across north and central Georgia. Expecting to see some shower
activity from this with plenty of moisture in place (especially
given the likely decaying remnants of Rafael in the Gulf). Cold
front will slowly move towards the area overnight, increasing rain
chances in the north, but looks to stall as it becomes more
aligned with the upper level flow over the southeast. With the
best forcing well to the north, Monday, will see a gradual
decrease in rain and showers activity associated with this front.

This means we should have a relatively warm airmass still in
place across the southeast for Monday and Tuesday. This will keep
temperatures pretty elevated for November in many areas. Current
forecast has us in the mid to upper 70s for highs in most
locations, which would be 5-10 degrees above average for November.
Another quick moving system will pass by us to the north on
Monday night into Tuesday with no impacts. However, surface high
pressure is forecast to slide into northeast on Tuesday night into
Wednesday, which would likely bring another wedge front into the
area ahead of our next approaching system on Thursday. Uncertainty
is a bit higher on the backside of the long term as usual, though
there is decent model agreement around the formation of many of
the features at this time.

Lusk


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

All of the TAF sites will likely stay BKN MVFR to BKN low-VFR
through at least a portion of the afternoon/early evening. Mist
will be possible, mainly at MCN and CSG. Yet another overnight
period of low-level cloud development is expected. Currently
forecasting ATL to go MVFR ~08z with the potential for IFR. More
confident in IFR ceilings at MCN and CSG, with MCN forecasted to
have a period of LIFR ceilings and IFR visibility. Like today,
gradual ceiling improvement is expected by tomorrow afternoon
(Saturday). Winds will be N to ENE generally less than 7 kts for
the remainder of the day, with brief periods of N to NNW winds
possible at ATL. Winds will be E tomorrow at 7-12 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  69  53  60 /  10  10  10  30
Atlanta         63  70  57  63 /  10  10  10  30
Blairsville     57  67  49  58 /  10  10  20  50
Cartersville    59  72  56  64 /  10  20  20  30
Columbus        68  78  62  73 /  20  20  10  20
Gainesville     63  67  53  58 /  10  10  10  30
Macon           66  74  59  70 /  20  20  20  20
Rome            57  74  58  65 /  10  20  20  40
Peachtree City  63  72  56  66 /  10  20  10  20
Vidalia         68  77  63  77 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Martin