060
FXUS62 KFFC 081753 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1253 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

An unseasonably warm and moist airmass remains in place across
the area as the morning begins. Considering dewpoints in the mid
60s in north Georgia and the upper 60s to near 70 in central
Georgia, light winds, and previous rainfall, fog has developed
along and south of the I-85 corridor, and is expected to spread
north and west over the next few hours. Some locations in east
Georgia could also see dense fog for in the early morning,
warranting a Dense Fog Advisory for this area. Scattered drizzle
will also be possible under the low cloud deck, particularly in
east-central Georgia where the greatest low-level moisture is
present. Fog is expected to dissipate by mid- morning, although
cloud ceilings will be slow to lift given the saturated airmass.
Expecting to see clouds become more scattered in the afternoon
hours. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to rise into
the upper 70s to low 80s. These highs will range from between 8-12
degrees above daily averages in central Georgia and as much as
12-18 degrees above daily averages in north Georgia. An east- west
oriented cold front is positioned over the far northern tier, and
is expected to slowly meander southward over the course of the
day. Isolated light showers will be possible ahead of the front
this afternoon.

By Saturday morning, the weak cold front will be positioned
across central Georgia. Areas to the north of the front will
observe a slightly cooler start to the day, with lows in the upper
50s to low 60s compared to mid to upper 60s ahead of the front.
During the daytime, the frontal boundary will also become oriented
from NW to SE as the parent low pressure moves northward through
the Great Plains. Isolated showers will be possible in portions of
west Georgia closest to the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure over the Great Lakes region will shift eastward
become centered over upstate New York by late Saturday morning. At
this point, a CAD wedge feature will develop on the lee side of
the Appalachians and begin to spread into north Georgia. High
temperatures within the wedge are expected to be limited to the
upper 60s to low 70s, as opposed to mid to upper 70s to the south
and west of the wedge.

King


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Surface high pressure will migrate off the Mid Atlantic coastline
from Saturday night into Sunday, setting up a CAD wedge across
north Georgia. As such, cloudy and murky conditions will persist
through the day Sunday with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees
within the typical wedge zone in northeast Georgia. Much warmer
conditions will remain in place in central Georgia beyond the
influence of the wedge.

PoPs will then begin to increase more appreciably from the
northwest by the latter half of Sunday into Sunday night. This
increase in rain chances will occur as low pressure lifting across
the Great Lakes into southern Canada drags a cold front
southeastward toward northwest Georgia. The highest PoPs and QPF
will be across north Georgia from late Sunday into early Monday. A
few isolated thunderstorms will be possible, though minimal
instability and waning dynamics will limit the potential. PoPs and
QPF will then decrease farther southward on Monday as the parent
low and upper support lifts farther northeast, causing the front
to become parallel to the flow. Total QPF could exceed 0.5" for a
few areas of north Georgia, tapering to little to no rainfall in
central Georgia.

A drier and slightly cooler airmass will settle across north
Georgia by Tuesday as the surface front becomes diffuse and washes
out to the south. Amid a continued fairly progressive pattern,
global ensembles broadly support a followup cold front that will
quickly push across the area late week. Consistency regarding
potential timing and rainfall totals remains low at this juncture,
but chance PoPs increase across north Georgia by late Wednesday
into Thursday. Temperatures then look to trend toward more
seasonal values in the wake of this front by the end of the
period.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

All of the TAF sites will likely stay BKN MVFR to BKN low-VFR
through at least a portion of the afternoon/early evening. Mist
will be possible, mainly at MCN and CSG. Yet another overnight
period of low-level cloud development is expected. Currently
forecasting ATL to go MVFR ~08z with the potential for IFR. More
confident in IFR ceilings at MCN and CSG, with MCN forecasted to
have a period of LIFR ceilings and IFR visibility. Like today,
gradual ceiling improvement is expected by tomorrow afternoon
(Saturday). Winds will be N to ENE generally less than 7 kts for
the remainder of the day, with brief periods of N to NNW winds
possible at ATL. Winds will be E tomorrow at 7-12 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  69  53  61 /   0  10  10  20
Atlanta         64  71  57  64 /   0  10  10  20
Blairsville     55  68  49  59 /   0  10  20  50
Cartersville    59  72  55  65 /   0  10  10  30
Columbus        67  79  62  73 /  10  10  20  20
Gainesville     62  68  54  59 /   0  10  10  30
Macon           65  75  59  71 /  10  10  10  10
Rome            58  74  57  66 /   0  10  20  40
Peachtree City  62  72  56  66 /  10  10  10  20
Vidalia         67  78  63  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Martin