718
FXUS62 KFFC 240131
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
831 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024



.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

High pressure and dry conditions will persist overnight. Models
are not handling dewpoints very well, especially in the higher
terrain. Have tried to capture the much drier dewpoints as best as
possible. Blended some drier values in for tomorrow also.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Key Messages

 - Fair weather will continue in the region through Sunday.

 - The warming trend that started today will continue Sunday.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

Weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate in
the Southeast through Sunday night. Subsidence from the ridge will
combine with a deep pool of dry air between the surface and 300 mb
to produce fair skies. Meanwhile high pressure at the surface should
bring lighter winds (4 to 8 mph). The lighter winds and fair skies
will produce good radiational cooling tonight. As a consequence,
widespread morning lows in the 30s are expected Sunday morning.
Patchy fog may develop between 3 AM and 10 AM, especially near the
lakes or in the wind sheltered valleys of north Georgia. Ample
sunshine should lead to widespread high temperatures in the upper
60s Sunday afternoon (2 to 6 degrees above average). Temperatures
Sunday night should be a couple of degrees warmer (compared to
tonight). This should be especially true for western Georgia where
cloud cover may return.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

- Increasing rain chances prior to and on Thanksgiving

- A roller coaster of temperatures through the period: above normal
to start off followed by subfreezing temperatures after Thanksgiving

Overall not too many changes to the long term period compared to the
previous forecast.

Weather remains warm and dry at the start of the period (Monday),
but a low pressure system and associated cold front originating near
the Great Lakes will be moving eastward towards the forecast area.
Thus, rain chances will start to increase Monday into Tuesday
across northwest GA. Given the lack of any support aloft, the
front will lose steam and likely stalls across Central GA on
Tuesday. With minimal (if any) instability present anticipating
just rain showers for now. The highest rain chances will be
confined to North GA, though forecast totals will be meager with
latest forecast totals less than two tenths of an inch.
Nevertheless, rain and clouds will cool the northern third of the
forecast area Tuesday through Wednesday, with most of the forecast
area remaining on the warmer and drier side. The next opportunity
for more appreciable rainfall looks to be (unfortunately)
centered around the Thanksgiving Holiday. Another low pressure
system, originating near the Mid- South will advance eastward
towards the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday through Friday. Compared
to the previous system earlier in the week, we should have more
midlevel support and some instability to work with. Thus, higher
and more widespread rain chances and isolated thunderstorms can be
anticipated on Thursday. The only notable change with this system
is timing as latest guidance pushes the front through a little
quicker limiting the window for isolated wintry precip in the
northeast. Timing is still subject to change and will need to
continue monitoring for the potential of lingering moisture in
northeast Georgia Friday night/Saturday morning as temperatures
quickly drop with the passage of the cold front. Dry and much
colder conditions filter into the region next weekend.

Monday will be the warmest day in the long term -- forecast
temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s. From Tuesday onward it will
be a roller coaster of temperatures. Tuesday through Thursday we`ll
see forecast highs in the 50s to low 70s transitioning into the
40s and 50s by Friday and Saturday. Forecast lows will behave
similarly with values going back and forth between the mid 30s to
mid 40s or 40s and 50s each day through Thursday. Though following
the Thanksgiving system, forecast lows plummet by the weekend
with values in the upper 20s to low 30s Friday into the weekend.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR through the period. Winds may try to go light and variable
during the overnight hours, but winds will predominately remain on
the west side.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          36  66  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         37  64  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     32  63  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    32  64  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        36  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     37  65  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           36  66  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            32  64  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  34  65  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         38  68  43  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...NListemaa