779
FXUS62 KFFC 031025 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
625 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The focus of the short term period is unseasonably warm
conditions, as temperatures could meet or exceed all-time daily
records. The first dose of heat of the year can take some people
off guard, so individuals vulnerable to heat and outdoor workers
with health concerns may be at risk.

A warm morning is underway with temperatures in the 60s (which is
17-24 degrees above average). Records for maximum low
temperatures are at risk for ATL (the record is 65, the progged
low temp this morning is 66) and AHN (record 62, progged low 64).
A dense cirrus shield is overhead, courtesy of anvil blow-off
from the intense storms occurring over the Lower MS Valley and TN
River Valley, and is contributing to the warm temperatures
overnight.

High temperatures today will be in the mid-80s to upper 80s
across the majority of the CWA (which is 12-19 degrees above
average). Specifically, the forecast highs for MCN and CSG are 88
degrees, and the record highs are 89. Similar to yesterday, there
is potential for isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm
across the eastern half or so for the CWA this afternoon and early
evening. Also similar to yesterday, showers may not develop until
late this afternoon, as morning cloud cover is expected to be
slow to scatter out. Once the cloud cover erodes/scatters out,
1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE may be realized, but poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit the intensity of convection. Activity will wane
after sunset.

Overnight/early Friday morning low temperatures will be in the
60s -- again approaching or meet/exceeding records for maximum low
temps. Temperatures will then approach or meet/exceed records
tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, given highs in the mid-80s to upper
80s again. The SREF depicts a building 500 mb ridge over the
Southeast through the day, so expect that showers and storms will
be few and far between -- not enough coverage or confidence to
include even slight chance PoPs at this time.

Martin


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Starting off the long term roasty toasty, Saturday. Models are in
greater agreement today that highs across the area will likely be
in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. This is at or near record
highs at all climate sites (record highs: AHN 88, ATL 89, CSG 91,
MCN 91). Our next chance for a cool-off comes Sunday as the cold
front and more substantial trough kick across the Southeast.
Timing the front will be very important for high temperature
potential on Sunday. Current timing has the front through the
metro around 2pm, however a few hour difference for cloud shield
impacts could impact highs for the day by as much as 10 degrees.
Greater confidence in temps on Sunday should come with higher
resolution models to realize the front.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to hang over southeast GA
through Monday morning as the front runs into the ridge over the
western Atlantic. Current flash flood guidance is over 4 inches
for a 24 hr period in the southeast CWA, so this shouldn`t be too
much of an issue outside locally heavy rainfall. This may need re-
evaluation should the front look to slow north of the Fall Line
where FFG is lower and streams are more reactive. Current QPF
stands between 1.5-2.5" across the entire CWA. At this time, the
WPC Marginal ERO remains representative.

Temperatures behind the front will drop significantly. Highs will
be a more spring-like 60s, however given drier conditions lows
will likely be well below normal, in the 30s. Areas of north
Georgia, especially the higher elevations and isolated valleys on
clear nights, could see near freezing temps (late season freeze
potential anyone?).

SM


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

MVFR/IFR cigs are filling in across eastern Georgia. Expect that
this cloud deck will arrive at ATL ~12z (although low-VFR cigs may
materialize before then). The potential for IFR is covered by a
TEMPO from 12z to 14z. Similar to yesterday, cloud cover will
slowly lift in the early afternoon with a SCT/BKN deck ~4 kft to
~6 kft through the evening. Winds may pivot from SSE to SSW, but
pinning down the timing of the wind shift at ATL is tricky as the
prevailing wind direction will essentially be due S. Winds will be
8-13 kts with gusts of 20-23 kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on evolution of cigs this morning and on wind
shift timing. High on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Records for 04-03

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      88 1934     47 1987     62 2007     26 1992
                                        1974
   KATL      87 2012     39 1987     65 1974     29 1992
   KCSG      89 1945     50 1915     70 1977     32 1962
   KMCN      89 2012     51 1901     69 1977     30 2021
                1957

Records for 04-04

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      89 1934     47 2013     66 1999     29 1915
                            1987
   KATL      85 1969     47 2013     66 1880     30 1987
                            1987                    1936
                                                    1891
   KCSG      89 1934     52 2013     65 2012     33 1987
                1918
   KMCN      88 1969     50 2013     69 1977     31 1992
                1954
                1934

Records for 04-05

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      88 2010     47 1964     62 1969     29 1944
                                                    1891
   KATL      89 1988     36 1891     66 1880     28 1881
   KCSG      91 1934     58 1962     65 1969     34 1987
   KMCN      91 1988     53 1944     63 2023     32 2000
                                        1969
                                        1922

Records for 04-06

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      89 1929     49 1949     65 2023     27 1944
   KATL      86 2010     47 1898     69 2023     28 1891
   KCSG      90 1934     50 1945     68 1947     32 1920
   KMCN      89 1967     48 1945     66 1958     32 1944

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  64  87  63 /  20   0  10   0
Atlanta         86  66  87  66 /   0   0  10   0
Blairsville     80  59  81  61 /  20  10  10  10
Cartersville    88  64  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
Columbus        88  65  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     83  64  85  65 /  20   0  10   0
Macon           88  64  88  63 /  20   0  10   0
Rome            88  64  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  87  64  87  62 /   0   0  10   0
Vidalia         90  67  89  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Martin