769
FXUS62 KFFC 081143
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
643 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

An unseasonably warm and moist airmass remains in place across the
area as the morning begins. Considering dewpoints in the mid 60s in
north Georgia and the upper 60s to near 70 in central Georgia, light
winds, and previous rainfall, fog has developed along and south of
the I-85 corridor, and is expected to spread north and west over the
next few hours. Some locations in east Georgia could also see dense
fog for in the early morning, warranting a Dense Fog Advisory for
this area. Scattered drizzle will also be possible under the low
cloud deck, particularly in east-central Georgia where the greatest
low-level moisture is present. Fog is expected to dissipate by mid-
morning, although cloud ceilings will be slow to lift given the
saturated airmass. Expecting to see clouds become more scattered in
the afternoon hours. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast
to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s. These highs will range from
between 8-12 degrees above daily averages in central Georgia and as
much as 12-18 degrees above daily averages in north Georgia. An east-
west oriented cold front is positioned over the far northern tier,
and is expected to slowly meander southward over the course of the
day. Isolated light showers will be possible ahead of the front this
afternoon.

By Saturday morning, the weak cold front will be positioned across
central Georgia. Areas to the north of the front will observe a
slightly cooler start to the day, with lows in the upper 50s to low
60s compared to mid to upper 60s ahead of the front. During the
daytime, the frontal boundary will also become oriented from NW to
SE as the parent low pressure moves northward through the Great
Plains. Isolated showers will be possible in portions of west
Georgia closest to the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure over the Great Lakes region will shift eastward become
centered over upstate New York by late Saturday morning. At this
point, a CAD wedge feature will develop on the lee side of the
Appalachians and begin to spread into north Georgia. High
temperatures within the wedge are expected to be limited to the
upper 60s to low 70s, as opposed to mid to upper 70s to the south
and west of the wedge.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Surface high pressure will migrate off the Mid Atlantic coastline
from Saturday night into Sunday, setting up a CAD wedge across north
Georgia. As such, cloudy and murky conditions will persist through
the day Sunday with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees within the
typical wedge zone in northeast Georgia. Much warmer conditions will
remain in place in central Georgia beyond the influence of the wedge.

PoPs will then begin to increase more appreciably from the northwest
by the latter half of Sunday into Sunday night. This increase in
rain chances will occur as low pressure lifting across the Great
Lakes into southern Canada drags a cold front southeastward toward
northwest Georgia. The highest PoPs and QPF will be across north
Georgia from late Sunday into early Monday. A few isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, though minimal instability and
waning dynamics will limit the potential. PoPs and QPF will then
decrease farther southward on Monday as the parent low and upper
support lifts farther northeast, causing the front to become
parallel to the flow. Total QPF could exceed 0.5" for a few areas of
north Georgia, tapering to little to no rainfall in central Georgia.

A drier and slightly cooler airmass will settle across north Georgia
by Tuesday as the surface front becomes diffuse and washes out to
the south. Amid a continued fairly progressive pattern, global
ensembles broadly support a followup cold front that will quickly
push across the area late week. Consistency regarding potential
timing and rainfall totals remains low at this juncture, but chance
PoPs increase across north Georgia by late Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures then look to trend toward more seasonal values in the
wake of this front by the end of the period.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

LIFR ceilings are in place across the majority of north and central
Georgia as the morning begins. Additionally, fog reducing visibility
values to 2-4 SM will persist until 14-15Z this morning. A TEMPO for
visibility restrictions of 1/2 SM is also being carried at ATL from
12-14Z this morning. Ceilings will be slow to improve this morning,
lifting to IFR after 14Z and to MVFR between 16-17Z. Ceilings are
forecast to scatter out, giving way to VFR conditions by 19Z at
FTY/PDK/RYY, 20Z at ATL, and 21Z at CSG/MCN. Winds will be light and
variable through the early morning hours, becoming NE at 3-6 kts
after 14Z and through the remainder of the day. Will need to monitor
for the possibility of a brief shift to N/NW in the late afternoon
hours. Lower ceilings are expected to develop once again overnight,
most notably at MCN where IFR conditions are forecast after 08Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low confidence on potential wind shift in the late afternoon.
Medium to high confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  69  53  61 /   0  10  10  20
Atlanta         64  71  57  64 /   0  10  10  20
Blairsville     55  68  49  59 /   0  10  20  50
Cartersville    59  72  55  65 /   0  10  10  30
Columbus        67  79  62  73 /  10  10  20  20
Gainesville     62  68  54  59 /   0  10  10  30
Macon           65  75  59  71 /   0  10  10  10
Rome            58  74  57  66 /   0  10  20  40
Peachtree City  62  72  56  66 /  10  10  10  20
Vidalia         67  78  63  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ024-025-
027-034>039-045>051-061-062-074>076-085-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King