074
FXUS62 KFFC 052344
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
644 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Mid level ridging over the Caribbean and broad zonal flow
over the Conus appear to be the main players in our weather for
the foreseeable future well into the extended amidst perturbations
in the flow.

For today, very weak CAD ever so slightly leaking into NE GA.
Showers and rainfall held off long enough to allow daytime heating
to warm much of the region up to near 70. Had the showers arrived
a little sooner, would have expected the CAD to begin to feedback
given the 40s and 50s dewpoints across the area and bust high
temps today. Clouds kept the area from reaching the upper 70s
which was forecast last weekend, but we still attained a
formidable lower 70s.

Subtle shortwave passes well to the north of the region tonight,
but close enough to spark an area of rain/rain shield to develop
and move across mainly northern GA, north of I20.

Frontal boundary approaches the region during the day Thursday but
doesn`t quite make it by Friday AM beneath the zonal flow aloft.
End result is continued increased chances for showers across the
north Thursday into Friday. Thunder chances, albeit low, appear
better during the afternoon on Thu across N GA. HREF probs
yielding 50pct chances of at least 100 J/kg northern GA (north of
20)...but less than 10pct probs of at least 300 J/Kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Unseasonably warm conditions will prevail through at least this
weekend despite increasing moisture and chances for precipitation.
There`s really not much change in the overall upr lvl pattern in the
next 5-7 days; but by the middle of next week, medium-range models
indicate the Polar jet finally showing signs of buckling over the
western CONUS, thus shifting the anomalously warm upr high (that`s
extended from Texas to the Southeast region) off the Atlantic coast.

A remnant boundary draped across the area Friday will maintain at
least "scattered" rain showers. This boundary quickly lifts
northeast late Friday into Saturday but another system traversing
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will send a weak front across north GA
with potentially a more organized chance for additional rainfall. As
the pattern shifts to a more southwest flow (aloft) ahead of a
digging longwave trough out West, deeper moisture and energy will
overspread the SE region leading to an increased risk of heavier
rainfall, isolated storms and potentially localized flooding.

Temperatures will be 15-20F deg above normal thru Sunday but then
start to cool with more clouds and slight dip in the upr lvl heights.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Current VFR cigs trend lower overnight. Initial patchy MVFR is
possible in iso/sct -SHRA, but prevailing MVFR cigs become more
likely by 06Z at ATL sites and AHN, at which time -SHRA coverage
diminishes. IFR cigs are likely by 08-09Z at ATL/AHN sites and
persist through 15-17Z before lifting toward MVFR. MVFR will be
mostly persistent through afternoon with some scattering by around
00Z. Winds shift to SSE by 01Z with SE winds at 3-5 kts through
12Z before direction shifts back SW. SW winds prevail at 06-10
kts on Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          51  74  59  76 /  40  10  40  50
Atlanta         56  73  60  74 /  50  20  50  50
Blairsville     50  69  54  67 /  50  60  80  40
Cartersville    56  75  58  72 /  50  20  70  40
Columbus        57  77  60  77 /  20  10  20  20
Gainesville     51  72  60  73 /  50  20  60  50
Macon           56  79  60  78 /  20  10  10  30
Rome            57  73  56  71 /  50  30  80  40
Peachtree City  56  75  60  75 /  40  10  40  40
Vidalia         57  81  60  80 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...RW