782
FXUS62 KFFC 060016
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
816 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...Evening Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Well above normal temperatures this weekend with heat index
   values in the triple digits. A Heat Advisory is in effect
   across most of north and central Georgia through Sunday
   evening.

 - Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be around
   this weekend. A few storms may be severe.

 - Cooler and drier weather moves in early next week, with
   temperatures warming back to above normal by mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A fairly active evening is has transpired across much of northeast
Georgia as far south as the Atlanta Metro. Scattered thunderstorms
were able to take advantage of a highly unstable environment and
in many places produce wind gusts between 50-60 MPH along with
frequently lightning. At this time, storms have pushed south of
metro Atlanta with a few isolated storms near the AL/GA stateline
in the vicinity of I-20 and down towards Milledgeville. For the
most part, storms are becoming trending downward as outflow races
out ahead but will still be capable of gusty winds and
frequent lightning. Low clouds and patchy fog will be possible
overnight into early Sunday morning especially in areas that saw
rain and storms earlier in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Heat Concerns Continue:

Current satellite loop shows scattered clouds developing across the
area with some showers and thunderstorms across North and Central GA.
Very warm temps continue across the area with highs expected in the
middle to upper 90s through the short term. With dewpoints in the
70s we can expect to see Heat Index values in the 103 to 109 deg
range Today and Sunday. Have extended the heat advisory to include
Sunday which should be our last day of these extreme temps (at least
through the next 7 days).

Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Weekend:

The Bermuda ridge that kept us mostly dry for most of this past week
is finally weakening as the next frontal boundary nears the area from
the NE. This weakening ridge is allowing typical scattered
summertime pop-up showers and storms to develop across central GA,
where moisture has pooled and subsidence from the fleeting ridge is
lower. The second area for storms is across north/northeast GA
associated with increased moisture ahead of the approaching cold
front which is pushing SW down the eastern seaboard and should move
into NE GA between 12z-18z Sun. Scattered strong to severe storms
are possible, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts, and
frequent lightning strikes. SPC has the aforementioned corridor of
north/northeast GA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe
weather with a Severe Thunderstorm watch just N and E of our area
across portions of the Carolinas.

On Sunday, convective activity will ramp up even more, as a
shortwave and associated frontal boundary start to move across the
area. This forcing, combined with the warm and humid airmass in
place out ahead of it, will support scattered to numerous
afternoon showers and storms, with generally higher coverage
across central GA. Several storms may be strong to severe, with
damaging wind gusts, and frequent lightning strikes as the primary
threats. The greatest risk for severe storms will be across portions
of east and Central GA, where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
for severe weather. With the potential for repeated rounds of storms
and efficient rainfall rates, we`ll also have to watch out for
localized flash flooding, especially in urban and poor-drainage
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

By Monday and the start of the long term, mid-level ridging situated
across the midsection of the country will begin migrating eastward.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will largely be focused along
the front (which may slow down or speed up as we approach the short
term), the best of which (60-80%) appear to be across the far
southeastern portion of the forecast area. Sensible effects of the
front will be fairly substantial given the preceding heat, with
highs as much as 8-10 degrees "cooler" (relatively speaking) than
Sunday -- in the lower 80s to lower 90s. Portions of northeast
Georgia at elevation may even remain in the 70s. Expect further fine
tuning of Monday`s temperatures as they`re directly tied to frontal
progress.

Tuesday and beyond, the core of the aforementioned mid-level ridging
will move overhead, accompanied by high pressure at the surface --
oriented such that we`re likely to have an extended period of "cold"
air damming. Heat will begin to build once again, with highs
returning to several degrees above average by mid-to-late week.
Breezy easterly winds should support ample mixing during the
afternoon, which will initially serve to keep heat index values
within a few degrees of air temperatures. Widespread convective
development will be hampered by subsidence, with rain chances
relegated largely to portions of south central Georgia through
Wednesday.

The presiding mid-level ridge will retrograde westward across the
Four Corners region on Thursday, allowing for more substantial
moisture intrusion across the Southeast, and a return to more
uniform afternoon thunderstorm chances areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

TSRA is currently pushing south of the ATL airfield this evening.
Additional tsra may develop along outflow that`s pushing south
potentially impacting MCN between 01-03z, while impacts to CSG
remain slightly less certain. SHRA/TSRA should be done at
remaining sites until tomorrow afternoon (18z). Patchy BR (5-6sm)
psbl between 08-13z, and perhaps some low cigs (010-020ft) at
CSG/MCN. Otherwise, VFR. Gusty, erratic winds accompanying any
tsra (35-45kts). VRB, light wind overnight picking up from the NW
tomorrow morning 4-7kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on occurrence of any lower vsbys.
High confidence on remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  96  69  86 /  30  40  60  40
Atlanta         75  96  73  86 /  30  20  40  40
Blairsville     67  89  64  80 /  10  20  30  20
Cartersville    73  96  72  88 /  20  10  20  20
Columbus        75  97  74  91 /  10  30  40  30
Gainesville     73  94  70  83 /  20  30  40  40
Macon           74  96  72  87 /  10  50  60  60
Rome            73  96  71  88 /  10  10  20  20
Peachtree City  73  96  72  86 /  30  20  30  40
Vidalia         76  96  72  88 /  10  60  70  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ001>005-011>013-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...07