944
FXUS62 KFFC 032311
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
711 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures to start the week by as much as 5 to
  10 degrees. Still recommend that jacket for Monday morning,
  especially out at the bus stop.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return mid week (Wednesday and
  Thursday). There is high uncertainty in the exact timing and
  intensity of any precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Hard to find a better May day than this. Temperatures across the
area have risen into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon
under sunny skies with relatively light winds. Upper level system
that pushed rain through the area has lifted to the east and
pushed the baroclinic/frontal boundary further south into Florida
(creating some fun for a certain Grand Prix). NW flow will filter
into the area for the next 36 hours or so. Weak impulse is noted
that will help shift winds back to the SW tomorrow, though with
dry airmass and baroclinic boundary so far to the south impacts
should be nothing more than a few passing high clouds.

Only impact in the short term will be the continuation of cooler
than normal temps tomorrow morning before we start a gradual warming
trend through the week. Clear skies, dry surface air, and calm winds
will allow radiative cooling to run wild again tonight, bringing
temperatures into the lower to mid 40s across the CWA by early
Monday morning. Bring a coat, but be ready to shed it as afternoon
temps rise to the upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Uncertainty continued to dominate the forecast with respect to
precipitation timing and intensity Wednesday and Thursday. The upper
level flow pattern remains consistent with a subtropical ridge
developing by Wednesday and a polar trough ejecting off The Rockies,
splitting from a cutoff low. The uncertainty sits with the location
of the ridge-trough interface and the timing of any near surface
shortwaves from the cutoff section of the low. What we can say at
this time, is that the location of the interface between the two
airmasses will see good soaking rainfall. What is uncertain is the
timing (sometime Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon) and
the intensity (thunderstorm potential). Timing uncertainty will be
reliant on CAMs to better resolve the trough shearing effect as it
moves through the central CONUS. As for thunderstorm potential, this
will be a factor of both timing (diurnal heating) and the strength
of the ridge (which would hinder convection south of the ridge-
trough interface). At this time, the highest confidence in
precipitation sits across the far northern counties of the CWA, and
decreases quickly the further south you go. The higher end of QPF
remains uncertain as well due to thunderstorm potential, with
thunderstorms more efficiently being able to tap into moisture. At
the moment, a safe assumption for far north Georgia is 1 to 2 inches
(tapering off quickly towards the north metro). The high end of
precipitation through Thursday sits around 3 inches, though this
would likely be only localized (if at all).

This pattern of intermittent precipitation chances is likely to
continue until the full ejection of the cut-off low over the
southeast. Precip chances after mid week sit below 30 percent but
above 15 percent nearly every day due to uncertainty. That said,
post frontal conditions this next weekend will be cooler and mild
with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR at all sites. No cig or vsby restrictions anticipated over the
next 36hours. WNW winds less than 6kts overnight, shifting to the
SW and increasing to 5-7kts by 16z. A few passing high cirrus on
Monday, otherwise, SKC.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

High confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  78  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         50  78  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     40  75  47  75 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    44  79  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        46  78  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     47  78  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           45  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            43  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  45  78  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         50  80  55  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...07