987
FXUS62 KFFC 020555 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
155 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...


.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Stationary frontal boundary is situated across south central
portions of the state. High pressure will begin to build down the
spine of the Appalachians tonight forming a weak wedge. In the
meantime, the marine layer is currently moving onshore the SC/GA
coasts. Patchy dense fog and low clouds are associated with the
marine layer and should push inland overnight.

The models seem to be struggling with the potential development of
low clouds within the wedge overnight. However, they have
initialized the intrusion of the marine layer very well. The hi-
res models bring the marine layer up to the I-20 corridor by
morning. This moisture will likely get trapped within the wedge
and linger through much of the day in the NE portion of the
outlook area.

Will have to monitor the potential for dense fog with the advance
of the marine layer tonight. The most likely areas would be along
and south of the I-85 corridor. Not confident enough at this time
to issue a Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Key Messages:

    - Mostly clear and dry today

    - Weak cold air damming, breezy conditions, and chances for
      showers and thunderstorms Wednesday

Quasi-zonal mid-level flow in the wake of yesterday`s storm system
will linger for the remainder of the day today before being nudged
gradually southwesterly as the western fringes of the Bermuda High
nose onshore. As a swath of much drier air traverses the Southeast,
expect today to be very warm and pleasant, with only passing high
clouds and highs to top out in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

Moving into tomorrow, a weak disturbance rounding the northwestern
edge of the aforementioned ridging will provide fleeting support for
isolated showers and thunderstorms across portions of north and east
central Georgia. This combined with a period of brief cold air
damming (supported by a surface high moving southward across New
England and then off the Eastern Seaboard) will make for rather
dreary conditions for areas to the north and east of the Atlanta
Metro. Northwest Georgia is clipped by a Marginal (level 1 out of 5)
Risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow, but this appears to be
rather conditional, dependent upon the western extent of the wedge
airmass and subsequent breaks in the stratus deck. Best kinematics
occur fairly early on in the day (pre-noon) when cloud cover is
likely to be thickest, leaving behind only scant forcing later in
the afternoon (15-25 kts of shear at 925mb). HREF guidance suggests
70% or greater chances of seeing surface-based instability on the
order of 1000 J/kg -- or more -- for the majority of the area by
tomorrow afternoon, notably excluding much of north and northeast
Georgia, which is enough to support a marginally severe updraft or
two. If any strong to severe storms manage to break through the
cloud cover tomorrow afternoon, the primary hazard of concern would
be an isolated damaging wind gust.

Breezy to gusty conditions are likely tomorrow, with highest gusts
skewed to the north and west, as the surface pressure gradient
increases ahead of a strong low pressure system lifting northward
across the Plains. For now, gusts look to stay in the 20-30 mph
range for all but the terrain of northeast Georgia, and thus below
Advisory criteria.

Owing to increased cloud cover and moisture return occurring
overnight, expect lows to be as much as 10-15 degrees warmer than
last night, dropping into the 50s to lower 60s.  Highs tomorrow will
be dependent on the progression of the wedge airmass: in the mid-60s
to 70s for points north and east of Atlanta, and in the 80s to near
90 everywhere else -- 12-18 degrees above average for early April.

96


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Key Messages:

 - Well above average to potentially record-breaking temperatures
   expected Thursday through Saturday.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return late this weekend into
   early next week.

Very Warm To Record Breaking Heat Through Saturday:

Heat will be the story through the first half of the weekend as
an impressive 3 to 4 sigma 500 mb mid to upper level ridge sets up
over the region, extending north from the Caribbean. The
associated strong surface-850mb ridging will be parked to the east
over the western Atlantic, with stout south-southwesterly winds
pumping warm and humid air across Georgia. High temperatures will
be in the upper 80s Thursday, peaking on Friday with upper 80s to
low 90s, and only a degree or two cooler on Saturday. These temps
are nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of year, and
overnight lows will follow suit, only dropping to the 60s each
night. All climate sites could see record breaking max and min
temperatures.

Showers and Thunderstorms Chances:

As we head into Sunday, a strong trough over the central US will
start to kick out the dome of heat, and bring Georgia its next
shot at showers and thunderstorms. A cold front associated with
this trough will push through the region sometime Sunday into
early Monday, and be the source of lift for initiating convective
activity. Following the cold front, much cooler temperatures will
move into the region for early next week.

Culver


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The marine layer is pushing inland from the Atlantic and Gulf,
characterized by IFR/LIFR cigs. Expect that this cloud deck will
reach MCN and CSG around 10z and the ATL area and AHN around 12z.
Low vsby may occur within the marine layer as well, but the
northward extent of widespread BR/FG is uncertain. Cloud cover
will erode from south to north over the course of the afternoon
with FEW/SCT clouds ~4 kft remaining. Winds will be SE to SSE at
8-13 kts and gusts of 18-23 kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements except for winds.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          56  78  64  86 /  20  50  40  20
Atlanta         61  84  66  88 /  10  30  20  10
Blairsville     51  66  60  81 /  20  40  40  40
Cartersville    57  83  64  89 /  10  20  10  10
Columbus        63  89  66  89 /   0  10   0   0
Gainesville     57  71  64  85 /  20  40  40  20
Macon           61  88  66  89 /   0  30  10   0
Rome            56  86  64  89 /  10  20  10  10
Peachtree City  58  86  64  88 /  10  20  10  10
Vidalia         64  88  67  90 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Martin