426
FXUS62 KFFC 071922
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 256 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

 - A limited potential for a brief tornado continues for east
   central Georgia this evening.

 - Though rain continues, the flood risk is gradually coming to
   and end in the region.

 - A Freeze Watch has been issued for areas along and north of
   Interstate 85 from 2 AM Tuesday night to 10 AM Wednesday
   morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Severe Weather & Rainfall Today:

A deep fetch of moisture from the Gulf will continue to stream
northwards, resulting in widespread rainfall this afternoon and
evening. Severe weather remains possible for parts of east central
Georgia where a Tornado Watch is in place through 6 PM today.
Within the area covered by the watch SPC Mesoscale Analysis
suggest MUCAPE between 250 and 1000 J/kg, effective shear near 50
kt and 0-1 km helicity between 100 and 200 m2/s2. These factors
suggest a continued low risk for brief tornadoes with any more
vigorous convective cells. Forecaster confidence in the potential
for additional tornado warnings in the area through this evening
is moderate (40%). A Flood Watch is also out for a portion of
Georgia through 8 PM this evening. Storm total rainfall so far has
ranged from 4 to 6 inches near Columbus, to a broad swath of 2 to
3 inches along and north of Interstate 20. Amounts have be
lighter in east central Georgia (0.75 to 1.5 inches). Additional
rainfall will be possible in north and central Georgia through 11
PM this evening. The highest additional rain totals are expected
with thunderstorm activity in east central Georgia. This would be
over the areas that have seen the least rainfall so far, and it is
where additional rainfall can be handled with minimal risk for
additional flooding. For areas from Columbus to Atlanta (where
the heaviest rain has occurred thus far), additional rainfall
totals should be 0.40 inches or less. This should limit the flood
threat. Due to these factors our confidence in additional
flooding is low. That said, rain is still falling on saturated
ground, and we will be continuing the Flood Watch through 8 PM out
of an abundance of caution.

Frost Concerns Tonight & Tuesday Morning:

Northwest winds will bring CAA to the region tonight and this will
combine with clearing skies to produce colder overnight low
temperatures. In the mountains of far northeast Georgia sheltered
areas may briefly fall into the 32 to 36 degree range between 5
AM and 9 AM. This could lead to patchy frost formation. Due to
the limited coverage of these conditions we elected not to issue a
Frost Advisory (10% chance of issuance on later shifts). The
counties potentially impacted by these conditions include Fannin,
Union and Towns.

Widespread Frost & Freeze Conditions Tuesday Night:

A surface high will build into the Tennessee Valley Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Ahead of this feature, northwest winds will usher
a colder and drier airmass into Georgia. This could set the stage
for freezing or near freezing temperatures in the northern part of
the state Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A Freeze Watch has
been issued to highlight where sub freezing temperatures are most
likely (30 to 70% chance) along and north of Interstate 85. South
of the watch area (including in the Atlanta Metro) conditions may
favor frost formation Tuesday night. The caveat in the forecast
right now is the winds, which may remain in the 2 to 7 mph range
Tuesday night. This could limit the radiational cooling potential
and hinder temperature declines. Anyone with outdoor vegetation
that is sensitive to cold temperatures should monitor the forecast
closely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

The outlook for hazardous weather looks fairly limited during
this period. Weak southerly flow should return to the region
Wednesday night, limiting the potential for sub-freezing
temperatures Thursday morning. Then the next upper level trough
and associated cold front will move through the region between
Thursday afternoon and Friday. The passage of this system will
bring with it a chance for rainfall and isolated thunderstorms. An
isolated strong storm can`t be ruled out Thursday night or Friday.
However projections from the EPS and GEFS suggest limited
moisture return and instability for storm to work with, and this
should hinder the severe weather potential. Flooding is also
unlikely with both the GEFS and EPS means favoring less than 0.5
inches of rain.

The other noteworthy weather between Thursday and Sunday will be
the cooler temperatures. After unseasonable warmth last week,
persistent troughing over the Eastern U.S. will favor below
average temperatures through the weekend. This should lead to a
mix of high temperatures in the 60s and 70s, with the coolest
conditions occurring on Saturday (6 to 10 degrees below seasonal
averages).



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR conditions will continue in north and
central Georgia through 00Z Tuesday, then clearing will occur from
the northwest to southeast. Rain showers will accompany the lower
ceilings, with isolated thunderstorms in east central Georgia. VFR
conditions will prevail from 06Z to 18Z Tuesday. Winds will
continue to be from the west, with occasional gusts in the 18 to
24 kt range through 02Z Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Moderate confidence in the clearing by 03Z Tuesday.
Moderate confidence in additional rainfall through 22Z Monday.
High confidence in the wind direction and moderate confidence in
wind speeds.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          43  65  39  66 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         44  61  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     36  56  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    40  59  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        44  67  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     44  62  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           45  67  41  71 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            40  60  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  42  63  36  68 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         50  71  47  73 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for GAZ001>009-011-012-019-020-030-031-041-042-052.

Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ022>025-027-
032>038-042>050-052>061-066>073-078>084-089>095-102>104.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Albright