638
FXUS62 KFFC 241825 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
225 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Current satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across north and
central GA. Also seeing the next wave moving out of the central
plains and into the Mid MS river valley. This wave will continue
to push SE bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms to North GA
Today. This wave gets caught in the main upper level NWLY flow
which continues through the beginning of next week. We should
start to see some light showers/sprinkles across north GA right
around sunrise with coverage slowly increasing through this
afternoon/evening. The bulk of the wave finally moves into NW GA
around Sunset tonight which increases precip chances into the 40
to 60 percent range Sat night and then into the 60-80 percent
range Sunday. We could see some strong to near severe storms Sat
night into Sunday with gusty winds, periods of heavy rain and
frequent lightning strikes, but the potential for severe storms is
low given the lack of instability.

Temps Today and Sun will stay fairly cool behind the old frontal
boundary stalled across central GA with highs across North GA
(mainly along and north of Interstate 20) mainly in the 70s to
near 80. Highs south of the front (Central GA) will get up into
the 80s to lower 90s.

01


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Key Messages:

  - Multiple rounds of rainfall possible across the long
    term forecast, with best chances currently Monday night into
    Tuesday.

  - Wedge/CAD may preclude severe chances outside of portions
    west and central Georgia Monday into Tuesday. Too much
    uncertainty to pinpoint any severe chances after that.

Forecast:

Long term is looking potentially a bit on the wet side, with rain
or thunderstorm chances in place everyday across north Georgia
and most days in central Georgia. Starting Sunday night,
convection may be ongoing across the CWA in the form of either
some remaining afternoon storms or a more organized complex that
has made it`s way into the state along a shortwave propagating
within the NW flow aloft. There is a chance some of this may be
severe, with wind damage likely the primary threat. Marginal Risk
is in effect as of this writing.

Moving into Monday, strong shortwave digging into the NE will
finally help push a longer wave trough out into the Atlantic,
which will bring some very confluent flow aloft over that area.
Strong surface high will move in across the NE as a result, which
will lead to wedge/CAD moving down the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians and eventually sliding into the CWA by as early as
Monday evening. Simultaneously, trough over the 4 corners region
of the desert SW will move into the southern Great Plains sliding
underneath a separate stalled upper level low. SW flow aloft will
overspread the southeast bringing with it plenty of moisture
advection from the Gulf. Rain with some embedded thunderstorms is
expected to overspread the area starting Monday night lasting into
Tuesday morning. Wedge/CAD in place will likely aid with some
additional isentropic lift of moisture in those areas, so highest
chances of rain are across northern Georgia at this time.

Surface low is expected to develop Monday into Tuesday out in the
Great Plains, but some model differences in the overall placement
and strength of this. Where ensembles do seem to agree is in
keeping rain chances going into Wednesday and Thursday next week
by keeping the area in the moist sector. Both Euro and GEFS
ensembles generate rounds of rain/thunderstorms within a decent
number of members, possibly showing signs of organization, so this
will be a time period to keep an eye on. However, overall
probabilities as well as potential uncertainties are too high to
have any confidence in seeing severe weather at this time.

Lusk


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the evening. Expect cloud
bases anywhere from 6 kft to 10 kft giving way to a SCT/BKN MVFR
cloud deck tomorrow (Sunday) morning. There is potential for IFR
cigs tomorrow morning as well, but for now, have kept the IFR deck
SCT at ATL. MVFR vsby may accompany these lower clouds. A couple
waves of SHRA/TSRA are expected thru the period, though the timing
of each wave is uncertain. ATL could have SHRA in the VC through
sunset, with a more organized cluster of SHRA/TSRA late tonight
into early tomorrow morning. Additional convection is anticipated
tomorrow afternoon/evening. Winds are relatively light and
variable in direction this afternoon, with a period of west winds
likely at ATL before winds settle back out of the east tonight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on timing of SHRA/TSRA, as well as
evolution of cigs and vsby. High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  62  81  64 /  10  50  50  40
Atlanta         84  65  85  67 /  20  40  50  40
Blairsville     73  56  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
Cartersville    80  62  84  64 /  30  50  70  50
Columbus        91  68  92  69 /  10  20  30  20
Gainesville     78  62  79  65 /  20  50  60  50
Macon           89  67  91  67 /  10  20  40  30
Rome            78  62  83  64 /  40  50  70  60
Peachtree City  86  64  87  65 /  20  40  50  40
Vidalia         90  69  93  70 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Martin