157
FXUS62 KFFC 211738
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
138 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026


...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Tropical Storm Bertha will make slow westward progress across
    the northern Gulf over the next few days but will bring no
    direct local impacts.

  - Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase from Wednesday
    into late week as a frontal boundary stalls across the area,
    bringing the risk for heavy rainfall.

  - High temperatures will trend downward by late week as the front
    settles into north Georgia.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Early this morning, Tropical Storm Bertha continues to spin in the
northern Gulf off the Florida Panhandle as it lackadaisically moves
in a general westward direction. The system will continue on this
path over the next few days, keeping the forecast area well removed
from any direct impacts. Meanwhile, a cold front will be quickly
pushing southward into the Ohio Valley through the day today
courtesy of an upper trough swinging through the Great Lakes. Today
will be more of a transition day as the forecast area remains well
south of the approaching front and well north of Bertha in the Gulf.
Scattered PoPs will be highest across Middle Georgia this afternoon
and evening as outer banding features associated with Bertha surge
northward. Some of this activity could near the I-20 corridor by
evening before diminishing, but in general areas near and north of I-
20 will largely stay dry today.

Wednesday will bring a return to more active weather. This will
initially come in the form of scattered afternoon/evening convection
increasing within the very moist airmass characterized by PWATs over
2". Any of these afternoon storms will bring the risk for locally
heavy rainfall. Thereafter, the focus will quickly turn to the
aforementioned cold front that will settle into north Georgia by
Wednesday evening. While it`s just beyond of the scope of the
current short term period, the signal for heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding concerns increases headed into Wednesday
night, especially across far north Georgia as the front begins to
stall. The potential for training storms and heavy rainfall will
need to be monitored from late Wednesday persisting into the long
term forecast period Thursday.

As far as temperatures are concerned, highs will again reach the low-
to-mid 90s for most, and heat index values will peak in the 100-105
for most outside of the mountains both today and Wednesday. A few
locations (mainly in east-central Georgia) could again near or
slightly exceed 105 heat index, but the limited areal extent will
preclude any Heat Advisory issuance at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A weak cool front remains forecast to enter the region Wednesday
night. This will take 3-5 degrees off high temperatures Thursday
through the weekend, as well as slightly reduce dew points
especially north of the Atlanta metro and across the north Georgia
mountains. Not a massive pattern change, but at least something
noticeable for a few days. Heat and humidity will begin to build
again across Georgia early next week.

Daily thunderstorm coverage will actually increase for the long-term
period, highest each afternoon and evening. While organized severe
weather is not currently expected, the stronger storms will continue
to pose primary risks of lightning, strong wind gusts, and localized
flash flooding as model forecast soundings show an increasing trend
in daily PWAT values again back above 2.00 inches. Tropical Storm
Bertha remains expected to track westward toward the northwestern
Gulf, with little to no impact on our local weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Primarily SCT-BKN MVFR to low-VFR conds into the aftn, with cigs
deteriorating to BKN low-MVFR (and perhaps IFR for CSG) by
daybreak on Wednesday. Very low-end chc for isold TSRA this aftn
from 20-23Z for ATL/PDK/AHN, and higher for CSG/MCN. Heaviest pcpn
may be accompanied by MVFR vsbys in BR. Winds will be nearly due
S for much of the day, generally favoring SSE at 7-11kts thru 00Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence afternoon TSRA chances.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  75  91  73 /  20   0  40  40
Atlanta         92  75  90  75 /  20   0  50  40
Blairsville     86  70  83  67 /  10  10  70  70
Cartersville    93  75  92  73 /   0   0  40  60
Columbus        92  76  92  76 /  30  10  60  20
Gainesville     93  75  90  73 /  10  10  50  60
Macon           92  75  91  75 /  40  10  40  10
Rome            94  75  91  72 /   0   0  40  60
Peachtree City  91  74  90  73 /  20  10  50  30
Vidalia         95  76  95  76 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...96