827
FXUS62 KFFC 221055
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 424 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Key Messages:

  - Expanded the Flood Watch across portions of eastern Georgia. Areas
    within the watch could see 4+" of rainfall Friday and
    Saturday from slow moving thunderstorms. Flood Watch is in
    effect from 8 am today until 2am Sunday.

  - In line with the above, slow moving thunderstorms capable of heavy
    rain will be possible today and tomorrow across north and
    central Georgia. Strongest signal for potential flooding will
    be in the Flood Watch.

Forecast:

Rain is coming to an end where it had stuck around this morning.
Messy patches of low cloud cover and patchy fog are around thanks to
nocturnal inversion quickly hitting dewpoint within the rain
moistened and cooled airmass near the surface. This will remain
through the morning hours, and cloud cover may be slow to burn off
through the day.

Erin continues its transition to a baroclinic extratropical system
off the northeast coast in the northern Atlantic as it is absorbed
into the upper level jet. Weak ridge is building in behind it,
allowing for a weak surface high to form within the upper level
convergence aloft over the northeast. A bit closer to the CWA, a
front has stalled across Alabama, far north Georgia into eastern TN.
For the satellite nerds, the surface moisture difference is notable
on the Nighttime Microphysics RGB, with more purple blues across
Georgia where surface moisture remains is in contrast with the
cooler, drier air that is bright pink to the north. All the above
features will play a role in bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across north and central
Georgia. Easterly flow from Erin and the surface high to the north
will pull in additional moisture from the warm Atlantic (noted in
theta-e within the HREF guidance), which keeps forecast PWAT values
2" or higher across much of the CWA, but highest in the east across
Friday and Saturday. With little in the way of steering (mean winds
from surface to 8km is whopping 3 kts across most hires ensemble
members), expect these storms to be relatively stationary, which
makes for potential cell mergers that could create big localized
rain totals.

Put all the above together, and you get the ingredients needed for
our Flood Watch. Looking across the HREF and REFS, there are some
concerning signals. While the deterministic QPF forecast only shows
1-2" totals, the HREF and RRFS LPMM product highlights areas in
excess of 4-5" across the current Flood Watch. 90th percentile
values also show numerous areas in excess of 4", again a sign of the
the potential for some higher amounts across the region, even if
models can`t agree on the exact positioning. Flash Flood Guidance in
these areas is typically pretty high thanks to soil type, especially
in the summer where ground and plant uptake of water is very high,
but relatively heavy rains today have preconditioned soils in some
locations, and the rainfall rates could easily overwhelm some areas
(especially more urban). The overall footprint of potential heavy
rainfall has expanded some with today`s model runs, so the Flood
Watch will be expanded a bit to cover.

Otherwise, cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures quite
pleasant for August. Highs today should be mid to upper 80s with the
exception of parts of central Georgia which might make it to 90.
Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s. Saturday, highs
will be much the same, possibly a bit cooler.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 424 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Key Messages:

    - Increased thunderstorm chances through the weekend for
      North and Central Georgia.

    - Drier weather, mild temperatures and lower humidity early
      next week.

Discussion:

On Sunday, an upper level trough will sweep across the Great Lakes
Region, bringing a stronger cold front and another wave of showers
and thunderstorms through North and Central GA. Behind the front,
breezy northwest winds will usher in a cooler and drier continental
airmass into north GA on Monday and further into Central GA by
Tuesday. Exactly how cool and dry we get is still in question
especially if the cold front Sunday Night into Monday slows or even
briefly stalls over portions of Central GA. With this forecast
update, a surface high gradually building across the Ohio/TN Valley
Regions will result in little to no rain (less than 20 %) and
forecast dewpoints in the 50s to 60s from Monday to Thursday.
Forecast high temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 80s
(70s in northeast GA) on Sunday trending down to the upper 70s to
low 80s by mid-week.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR cigs have settled in across much of north and
central Georgia and is actively impacting TAF sites this morning.
Improvement is expected in next 2-3 hours by 14-15Z. Vsby impacts
should remain limited, but patchy fog is present in some
locations. Current cigs should break into a SCT or BKN cu field
later this afternoon. Another round of afternoon TSRA and SHRA
expected, with best window in 19Z-01Z time period, but impacts
possible outside that window. Winds will be from east through
period, 3-7 kts.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium high cigs, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  69  80  68 /  80  50  70  40
Atlanta         83  71  82  70 /  70  50  80  40
Blairsville     80  66  77  65 /  80  40  80  50
Cartersville    86  70  83  69 /  70  50  70  40
Columbus        87  71  85  71 /  80  60  80  30
Gainesville     81  69  79  68 /  70  40  70  40
Macon           85  71  82  70 /  80  60  80  30
Rome            86  70  84  69 /  60  40  70  30
Peachtree City  83  70  82  69 /  70  50  80  40
Vidalia         88  71  84  70 /  90  60  90  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Saturday night for GAZ039-050-051-
060>062-072>076-082>086-094>098-105>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Lusk