023
FXUS62 KFFC 180025
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
825 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Storms are quickly fading across the CWA, with the only remaining
convection being a few storms in the mountains and one or two
small things in south central Georgia. Weakening should continue
with sunset. Some shallow patchy fog may occur tonight, especially
in locations where rain occurred, but not expecting widespread
issues through the morning.

Lusk

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Key Messages:

    - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
      expected through early this evening and Monday afternoon.
      Frequent lightning, locally heavy rain and gusty winds may
      accompany storms that develop.

    - Warming temperatures with heat indices in the 97 to 103 range
      for Monday.

Discussion:

Once again widespread Cu has been quick to develop over the last
hour. Latest radar imagery shows showers and storms already
beginning to pop-up across North GA this afternoon. Despite some
slightly drier air working into the region given the building
surface, strong diurnal heating within a still fairly moist
environment will result in isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms through this evening. Latest hi-res guidance struggled to
initiate what`s currently ongoing in North GA and with this forecast
updated elected to bump up rain/thunder chances to 15-25% for much
of northern and western GA. CAPEs on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg,
PWs of 1.5 to 1.9 inches and lack of shear will support slower
moving storms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. Showers and storms should begin to wane shortly
around or shortly after sunset. Patchy fog may again be possible
overnight especially in areas that received a good amount of rain.

Largely anticipating a rinse and repeat forecast for Monday given
upper riding still in place over the MS River Valley and a surface
high over portions of the Southeast. Diurnally driven convection in
the afternoon, FEW-SCT Cu-field and temperatures a few degrees
warmer than today. Forecast high temperatures will climb into the
low to mid 90s (92-96) and low 80s in the northeast GA mountains.
Heat indices are forecast to range from 96 to 103, though a few
locations in Central GA could briefly approach 105. At this time
there are no plans for a Heat Advisory but the next forecast will re-
evaluate. Regardless, please be proactive and be mindful of the heat
if spending any amount of time outdoors!

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Key Messages:

 - Daytime high temps will fall through the week from the 90s
   Tuesday to the 80s Fri/Sat.

 - Precipitation chances slowly increasing each afternoon from
   Wednesday to Saturday.

Upper and mid level ridging continues across the Gulf and the
southeastern U.S. as Erin nears the eastern seaboard. This ridging
will help to keep Erin offshore and steer it northward away from the
eastern U.S. Right now it looks like the closest Erin`s center gets
to the GA coast will be about 550 miles offshore Wed morning. This
ridge is definitely acting as a block for the tropical system but it
will also help to keep temps across the region in the 90s Tue & Wed.
This ridge is expected to weaken a bit through next weekend with
precip chances slowly increasing and daytime highs lowering. By Sat
we will see daytime highs in the lower to middle 80s with some 70s
in the NE GA mountains. PWATs slowly increase through next week
starting in the 1.5-1.7" Tue, to 1.75-2.00" by Fri/Sat. This will
drive precip chances higher from isolated/scattered Tues, to
numerous Fri/Sat. Not expecting much instability to develop this
week so any diurnally driven convection we receive is not expected
to become severe.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 821 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR through TAF period. Convection has settled with sunset and no
further issues are expected at TAF sites. Winds will be very light
to calm at all sites, possible a bit VRB in direction for next few
hours with a few outflow boundaries from storms about. Not
expected vsby impacts in the morning, though can`t rule out some
patchy BR especially at CSG. Tomorrow will see again see winds
from the east at 4-7 kts, cu field development during afternoon,
and a low probability of seeing a storm impact any given airfield.


//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  91  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
Atlanta         73  93  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
Blairsville     65  88  67  89 /  10  20  20  30
Cartersville    70  94  72  95 /  10  20  10  20
Columbus        73  93  74  95 /  10  20  10  10
Gainesville     70  92  72  93 /  20  20  10  20
Macon           72  92  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
Rome            70  94  71  95 /  10  20  10  10
Peachtree City  71  93  72  94 /  10  20  10  20
Vidalia         73  91  72  94 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Lusk